History: The history is strong but will never be the same and is likely dead after this season. Only two teams (Washington State and Oregon State) were left behind during a mass exodus. Both schools will be affiliate members of the WCC next season, adding extra competition for St. Mary’s and Gonzaga.
The Pac-12 ran four tournaments between 1987 and 1990 but didn’t return to a tournament format until 2002. Arizona has the most titles (9) while four schools have never cut down the nets (Utah, Arizona State, Washington State, and California). No team has won the Pac-12 and NCAA tournaments in the same season.
Returning Champion: Arizona
In a mostly chalk tournament, the #2 Wildcats took down #1 UCLA, 61-59, in the championship. Looking like a potential Final Four contender, they tumbled against Princeton in a 15-vs-2 game. I cringe when people mention that being the #1 or #2 seed out West doesn’t matter. The way #15 seeds have routinely won in recent years should tell us that it does matter.
Format: All 12 teams make the field, with teams seeded 1-4 automatically placed into the quarterfinals.
Favorite: Arizona (24-7, 15-5)
In a battle for the top seed out west with Tennessee and (maybe) North Carolina, the Wildcats’ biggest failure was losing five games in a not-so-deep power conference. Outside the conference, they showed their worth by beating Duke (road), Michigan State (neutral), Alabama (neutral), and Wisconsin (home).
Their top-flight offense (#8 in efficiency and #3 in scoring (89.5)) is what drives them. They shoot 49.2% from the field (14th) and 37.4% from three (23rd). They distribute and rebound well, ranking first in assists and second in rebounding. 7’0″ center Oumar Ballo averages a double-double (13.1 points/10.0 rebounds) while senior guard Caleb Love averages 18.7 points. Their combination of experience and explosiveness makes me wonder why they aren’t better. Not that a potential #1 seed is “bad,” but a team with this talent level shouldn’t lose five Pac-12 games.
Contenders: Washington State (23-8, 14-6), Colorado (22-9, 13-7), Oregon (20-11, 12-8)
Live Long Shot: USC (14-17, 8-12)
Preview:
Washington State had a chance to shock the college basketball world. The Cougars swept Arizona (shocking in its own right) and seemed poised to take the regular-season title. However, weird losses to California, Arizona State, and Washington (home) derailed their plan. This is still a success story, however. They are ranked 45th in the KenPom, with an offense that ranks 53rd and a 29th-ranked defense. Four players average double-digits, including freshman Myles Rice (15.3) and senior forward Isaac Jones (15.4). They won six Quadrant 1 games, including a neutral-court win over Boise State. It’s not a “National Champions” profile, but a sneaky run to the Elite Eight seems possible.
Colorado needed to get hot to keep their at-large chances alive, and they did just that. The Buffaloes finished 6-0, including wins against fellow bubblers Utah and Oregon (road). Junior guard KJ Simpson is a handful, averaging 19.6 points/5.5 rebounds/4.9 assists. He shoots at a 45.1% clip from three-point range. In his first two years, he shot 25.4% and 27.6%. If they want to feel safe in their at-large quest, they cannot afford to lose to the winner of the Utah-Arizona State game.
Oregon is on the list because they received a bye. It is hard to envision the #4 seed getting past Arizona in a potential semi-final matchup, especially since Oregon‘s play hasn’t been inspiring. After starting 5-0 in conference play, they have been unable to get into a consistent groove.
USC has talent to burn, including top freshman Isaiah Collier (16.6 points/4.2 assists), who missed a chunk of time from mid-January into February. Bronny James, the son of Lebron, didn’t come out firing in his freshman year, averaging 4.8 points/2.8 rebounds/2.3 assists as mainly a bench piece. The Trojans ended the season on a 5-2 run, including wins over Utah and Arizona. The losses were to Colorado (double overtime) and Washington State (by three on the road). Usually, I discount highly talented teams that didn’t win, but the Pac-12 isn’t exceptionally strong, opening up a potential path. If they get past Washington (no easy feat) in the 8-9 game, a return date with Arizona commences.
Bottom Line:
I badly want to pick USC. I should do it since nobody would remember the silliness a week from now. Can they piece everything together for four more games and steal an NCAA Tournament bid? Or will they flame out against a good Washington team that has its sights set on making a run?
Winner: I’m not that big of a risk taker, but I open up the possibility that Arizona could be upset early in this tournament. Washington State is my pick.