History: Several teams have left the Mountain West through the years, but San Diego State is a constant and the all-time leader in titles (7) and title-game appearances (15). They have been in the championship game for six straight years.
Returning Champion: San Diego State
It wasn’t easy, but the Aztecs (as the #1 seed) defeated Colorado State, San Jose State, and Utah State to take the crown. They used their title to make a run to the NCAA Tournament championship game, where they succumbed to UConn. Given the recent poor performance of this multi-bid league, their run to the championship was a welcome sight for the league’s defenders.
Format: All 11 schools make the field. Teams seeded 1-5 automatically advance to the second round.
Favorite: Utah State (26-5, 14-4)
There are a lot of possibilities for the “favorite” spot. I am choosing the one who won the regular-season title outright.
The Aggies closed the season with five straight wins. A Top 50 squad in offensive and defensive efficiency, they average 79.9 points while allowing 69.6. Junior forward Great Osobor is a beast, averaging 17.6 points/9.0 rebounds/1.5 blocks. Overall, they are one of the sharpest shooting schools in the country (49.8%; 6th). They were not projected to have a great season, but here they are.
Contenders: Nevada (26-6, 13-5), Boise State (22-9, 13-5), UNLV (19-11, 12-6), San Diego State (22-9, 11-7), New Mexico (22-9, 10-8), Colorado State (22-9, 10-8)
Live Long Shot: Wyoming (15-16, 8-10)
Preview:
I try to pare down the number of contenders, but how can one differentiate one from the other? Every contender above (other than UNLV) is at least on the bubble (all six are likely getting into the tournament).
Nevada won seven Quad 1 games and finished the season on a 9-1 run that included road wins against Utah State and Colorado State. Senior guard Jarod Lucas averages 17.8 points and shoots 40.1% from beyond the arc. It took a few years but Steve Alford has the program on the right track. This will be their second consecutive NCAA Tournament bid.
Boise State secured six Quad 1 wins and finished the season on a 6-1 run, including a bid-stamping road win over San Diego State in the finale. The Broncos played a tough non-conference slate, including a neutral-court win over St. Mary’s. They lost by five to Washington State. Balance is a good way to describe this squad, as four players average between 12.5 and 16.8 points.
UNLV finished fourth in a league that is looking at six bids. However, they aren’t projected to be one of them, thanks to three Quadrant 4 losses. Their advantage here is that the tournament is played on their home floor. Far removed from the days of high-scoring, must-see entertainment, the Rebels run one of the slowest offenses in the country (312th in adjusted tempo). They finished the year on an impressive 9-2 run and will play San Diego State in the quarterfinal.
While Utah State is my favorite, San Diego State may be the best team. The Aztecs defeated St. Mary’s on a neutral court and Gonzaga on the road in the non-conference (they played one of the toughest non-conference slates). Forward Jaedon Ledee paces the offense with 20.5 points (best in the conference) on 55.7% shooting. His offense supports the defense, which ranks 8th in defensive efficiency. As good as they are, playing UNLV on their home court is not a fun opening matchup.
New Mexico slipped onto the bubble late in the season, thanks to a 4-6 finish that included a horrible loss to Air Force. A top-40 team in offensive and defensive efficiency, the Lobos average 82.6 points. Three players average 15+ points, including Jamal Mashburn Jr., the son of former NBA player Jamal Mashburn. Donovan Dent adds 5.5 assists to his 15.0 scoring average. This team is high-tempo, averaging 45.4 two-point attempts (#1 in the country).
Colorado State knocked off Creighton (neutral), Washington (neutral), and Colorado (home) in the non-conference. The Rams struggled down the stretch and haven’t defeated a top team since their February 17th conquest of Utah State. They are safely in the tournament unless they lose to San Jose State in the first round. They are a senior-laden team (five top scorers) that will be dangerous once March Madness begins.
Wyoming did something hard to do: The Cowboys went 0-10 in Quadrant 1 games. I am not declaring them as a legitimate threat, because nobody beyond the top seven are legitimate threats. They shoot 36.8% from three (34th in the country), so an upset is possible if they get hot.
Bottom Line:
Your guess is as good as mine. This is a deep and talented field with no obvious favorite. I want to pick Nevada, but they have a potential quarterfinal battle with Colorado State. I would easily go with San Diego State, but they are playing a road game against UNLV.
Winner: Boise State