History: The AAC is in constant churn. In the first year of the league (2013-2014), UConn gave the league instant credibility, using a second-place finish in the conference tournament to catapult them to winning the NCAA Tournament. UConn has since left for the Big East, while Louisville (who won the inaugural tournament – later vacated) is now in the ACC.
Raiding by bigger conferences has hit the AAC hard, as Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati bolted for the Big 12, while SMU is on its way to the ACC starting next season.
That said, what is leftover is still a good basketball league – albeit, not one that will ever be in the upper tier anymore.
Returning Champion: Memphis
The Tigers stood up to the 10,000-pound gorilla, beating heavily favored Houston in the title game. In their other two games, Houston allowed only 94 points. Memphis scored 75 in the championship.
That didn’t get them far, as they lost to Florida Atlantic in an 8-vs-9 heartbreaker in the first round. We all know what Florida Atlantic did from there.
Format: All 14 squads make the field, with teams seeded 1-4 automatically advancing to the quarterfinals.
Favorite: Florida Atlantic (24-7, 14-4)
The Owls made a strong impression in their first year. They earned quality wins when they swept through the ESPN Invitational (Butler, Texas A&M, and Virginia Tech). However, their biggest win was a monster, as they defeated Arizona in double overtime on a neutral court. A few weird losses (Bryant, Florida-Gulf Coast) suppressed their NET. Both losses are in Quadrant 4. I think they are safely in the NCAA Tournament. They just made it harder on themselves.
Four juniors lead the way, with 6’4″ guard Johnell Davis (18.2 points/6.3 rebounds/3.1 assists) and 7’1″ forward Vladislav Goldin (15.2 points/6.8 rebounds/1.6 blocks) playing a solid two-man game. Their offense ranks 14th in efficiency and 15th in points (83.0). Defense can be their downfall at times.
Contenders: South Florida (23-6, 16-2), Charlotte (19-11, 13-5), UAB (20-11, 12-6), Memphis (22-9, 11-7), SMU (20-11, 11-7)
Live Long Shot: North Texas (17-13, 10-8)
Preview:
While Florida Atlantic is the best team, South Florida was the surprise conference champion. While their overall resume doesn’t scream “at-large,” the Bulls used a 15-game winning streak (which included wins over every contender listed above) to take down the title. They are a solid defensive team that allows 68.6 points and 30.9% shooting from three-point range (31st lowest). While their one Quad 1 win and three Quad 3/4 losses will keep them out of the Big Dance at-large discussion, they are dangerous enough to earn their way there.
Charlotte and UAB are lumped together. I didn’t list them initially as contenders, but how can I leave out two teams who are a win away from being in the semifinals? That’s the advantage of earning the #3 and #4 seeds. Charlotte has a win over Florida Atlantic, the team they could face in that semifinal. That win was the start of an 8-game winning streak. However, they slumped to a 5-4 finish. The 49ers rank 356th in adjusted tempo, averaging only 69.2 points (they allow 65.9). There are many ways to win – Charlotte chooses the “limit possessions” method. UAB has six Quadrant 2 wins, including an overtime conquest of Florida Atlantic. The Blazers are 77th in offensive efficiency, averaging 77.3 points. 6’9″ junior forward Yaxel Lendeborg averages a double-double (13.7 points/10.4 rebounds) while junior guard Eric Gaines dishes out 5.4 assists. They are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, but at least they know their limitations as they don’t attempt many of them.
Memphis looks like an NCAA Tournament team, but their profile says differently. Their non-conference wins over Michigan and Arkansas in the Battle 4 Atlantis lost their luster when those schools died on the vine. During a 4-game stretch in the non-conference, the Tigers defeated VCU (road), Texas A&M (road), Clemson, and Virginia. However, they own three Quad 3/4 losses and a middling NET (69). There are stars on this high-scoring (81.0) squad, starting with junior forward David Jones (21.7 points/7.6 rebounds). They like to wear down teams by playing a high-tempo style that can get them into trouble. Bottom line? They are reckless, which makes them scary.
SMU couldn’t get over the Quad 1 hump (0-4). Until a 1-4 finish that included a bad loss to UTSA, the Mustangs were still on the fringes of the bubble discussion. Now? They need to win this tournament. As the #6 seed, they will take on the Temple-UTSA winner for a shot at Charlotte. They defeated Charlotte by 12 in their only meeting. They are a top 50 team in defensive efficiency, allowing 67.6 points. Shooting isn’t their forte, but volume is. Thanks to being the 4th best offensive-rebounding team in the nation, they put up 63.5 attempts (19th).
North Texas is a copout pick for the long shot. The Mean Green played St. John’s within a point and Boise State within five during non-conference play. Their NET is decent, and their low-tempo, defensive style can give anyone fits. They play for the three (37.5%), and if they get hot, watch out. They are not a team you want to fall behind against.
Bottom Line:
Florida Atlantic is the best team. However, they are a team that feels vulnerable. The way this league gets multiple bids is with a Florida Atlantic loss. I am going to pick for that to happen.
Winner: Memphis