History: The Big Ten has produced five straight different conference champions. In the 25 years this tournament has been played, the #1 seed has won ten times.
Michigan State has the most titles, with six. Minnesota, Penn State, Indiana (wow), Rutgers, Nebraska, Maryland, and Northwestern have never cut down the nets. The only team to ever win this tournament and the NCAA Tournament in the same year was Michigan State in 2000. That is the last time a Big Ten school won the championship.
Returning Champion: Purdue. As the #1 seed, the Boilermakers struggled, beating Rutgers by five in the quarterfinals and Penn State by two in the championship. I don’t think anyone thought their performance would foreshadow a loss to FDU in a 16-vs-1 game, but that happened.
Format: All 14 schools make the field. The top four squads automatically advance to the quarterfinals.
Favorite: Purdue (28-3, 17-3)
Three schools are in contention for the #1 overall seed: UConn, Houston, and Purdue. Some would argue that the #1 overall seed isn’t too important in 2024, since the three contenders are all locked into their regions anyway. However, your path to the Final Four should be slightly easier.
The Boilermakers are having a big season. Their various rankings: NET: 2, RPI: 1, SOR: 1, SOS: 2, Non-conference SOS: 1. They are 11-3 in Quadrant 1 with non-conference wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama, Arizona, and Xavier.
Zach Edey is one of the best players in the country, averaging 24.2 points and 11.7 rebounds.
Contenders: Illinois (23-8, 14-6), Nebraska (22-9, 12-8), Northwestern (21-10, 12-8), Wisconsin (19-12, 11-9)
Live Long Shot: Indiana (18-13, 10-10)
Preview:
Are there contenders to win this title? If Purdue is playing anywhere in the vicinity of their best, doubtful. But nothing is impossible.
Illinois went 0-2 against Purdue this season, but both games were played within single digits. Ranked #15 in the NET and 10th in the KenPom, the Fighting Illini is a legitimate (and under-the-radar) Final Four caliber team. They are an offensive juggernaut that ranks #4 in offensive efficiency and 12th in points (83.9). Senior guard Terrence Shannon Jr. has 15 20+ point efforts in 24 games, averaging 21.6 points. Four seniors average double digits and are one of the top rebounding teams in the country. They are vulnerable on the defensive side, so that is a storyline.
Nebraska finished the season on a 6-1 run and own the most impressive win over Purdue (88-72). The Cornhuskers are a three-point-heavy offense, averaging 26.2 attempts (33rd). After an impressive road win over Kansas State on December 17th, they didn’t win another road game until their February 21st win over Indiana. This is a good team on the opposite side of the bracket from Purdue so one can see them in the championship.
Northwestern is Purdue’s nemesis. The two squads split their season series, with both games going to overtime. Their methodical pace is efficient, and the Wildcats are a top 3-point shooting squad (39.6%; 7th). Their status on the bubble is due to a bad non-conference schedule, though they did defeat Dayton. As the #4 seed, the chalk would put them in the semi-finals against Purdue.
The chalk would place Wisconsin in that quarterfinal game with Northwestern. The Badgers defeated Virginia by 24 and Marquette by 11 in the non-conference and looked like one of the top teams in the nation when they started 13-3. The second half of the season didn’t go quite as well, as they compiled a 6-9 mark down the stretch. They defeated Northwestern in their only matchup this year. The question is: Can they bounce back in time to make noise here?
Indiana went 4-0 down the stretch, including wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin. 7’0″ sophomore center Kel’el Ware averages 16.1 points and 9.8 rebounds. The Hoosiers are a terrible shooting team from the perimeter, but their size can cause issues. After playing the winner of Penn State-Michigan, they should find themselves in the quarterfinals against Nebraska, a team that beat them twice by double digits.
Bottom Line:
I want to find a team that can shock the world, but it isn’t easy. A semi-finals matchup between Purdue and Northwestern will at least make Boilermakers’ fans sweat. But will the result be in serious doubt?
Winner: Purdue