History: The last ten tournaments have been won by Kansas (4), Iowa State (4), and Texas (2). Only six schools have won this tournament, which started in 1997. One of those schools (Missouri) has since moved on to the SEC. Historically, Kansas is the team everyone else chases. They own a 47-12 record in Big 12 Tournament games, including a 12-4 mark in the title game.
Returning Champion: Texas. The #2 seed mauled top-seeded Kansas in the title game by 20. They used the win to catapult them to the Elite Eight, where they lost to Miami by seven.
Format: With four new schools, the tournament has expanded to include all 14 teams. The top four seeds automatically advance to the quarterfinals.
Favorite: Houston (28-3, 15-3)
“Yes, they dominated the AAC – but how will they fare in the Big 12?” The answer? Quite well, as the Cougars won the regular-season conference title and are a favorite to be the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. No team in the country is in the top ten in offensive and defensive efficiency, but Houston is close. They are 11th in offense and 1st in defense. Despite playing in the toughest conference and a non-conference slate that included Dayton, Utah, Xavier, and Texas A&M, the Cougars allowed only 56.9 points. It takes a special commitment for top college players to be this tenacious on defense.
While they score enough and are efficient offensively, they are prone to shooting slumps. That is likely the only way for 95% of the country to beat them – on a cold shooting day.
Contenders: Iowa State (24-7, 13-5), Baylor (22-9, 11-7), Texas Tech (22-9, 11-7), BYU (22-9, 10-8), Texas (20-11, 9-9)
Live Long Shot: UCF (17-14, 7-11)
Preview:
The nation’s toughest league has a tournament where one team shines well above the rest. If you are wondering where Kansas is, they lost Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson for the duration of the Big 12 Tournament. It is hard to list them as a contender without them.
Iowa State was a hidden power early in the season. The Cyclones didn’t play a great non-conference schedule and lost games to Virginia Tech and Texas A&M. After losing their conference opener to Oklahoma, they shocked the basketball world with a win over Houston. Now they are sitting on eight Quad 1 wins and a 9-2 finish to the year. They rank second in the nation (to Houston) in defensive efficiency and they allowed only 62.1 points. Their offense can get in the way of their success, and that is a storyline to follow.
Baylor jumped out to a 9-0 start that included wins over Auburn, Florida, and Seton Hall. The winner of nine Quad 1 games, they predictably weren’t as solid inside the conference as they were outside it. While Houston and Iowa State like to smother you on defense, the Bears want to beat you with their offense. They are 5th in offensive efficiency, shoot 39.8% from three (5th), and score 81.5 points (24th). Six players average double-digits per game.
Texas Tech played two good teams in the non-conference and lost both of them (Villanova and Butler). That left them in the danger zone entering conference play, but they hung tough with wins over Texas (road), Kansas State, BYU, Kansas, and Baylor. Offensively, sophomore guard Pop Isaacs is tough to contain, averaging 16 points and 3.6 assists.
Like Houston, BYU is a newcomer to the league. Like Houston, the Cougars proved that they can win games in tougher surroundings. This is an offense-first team that plays at a quicker tempo than most in the Big 12. They average 82.2 points, hitting on 11.3 three-pointers (2nd in the nation). This team likes to shoot and distribute, as evidenced by their 18.7 assists (3rd). They own ten Quad 1/2 wins, including a non-conference victory over San Diego State. That was a big win, as their non-conference schedule was not strong.
Texas wasn’t on my original contenders list, but I figured the best conference deserves an extra team. A senior guard/forward combo (Max Abmas and Dylan Disu) are the team leaders. If Abmas’ name sounds familiar, he wowed us in the NCAA Tournament in 2021, when he scored 80 points in three NCAA Tournament games for Oral Roberts. His move to a larger school predictably lowered his scoring average, but he still averages 16.8 points and 4.3 assists.
UCF was on the tournament bubble for a while this year. They finished the season with a victory on the road over TCU, and they played a pair of tough games against BYU, their potential 2nd round opponent (they first need to get past Oklahoma State). I picked them as the sleeper because I think BYU and Texas Tech are beatable. This is a good team that got swallowed up in a crazy-good conference.
Bottom Line:
Kansas is decimated, but I am not sure if they would be a massive threat to Houston either way. I like to find ways to beat the favorite, but the Cougars are too good right now.
Winner: Houston