NCAA Basketball 3/11: The Bubble

The conference tournaments are in full swing, and there are a few storylines to follow – notably, bid stealers.

All of the power conferences have the potential for bid stealing. If Rutgers gets hot and wins the Big Ten Tournament, someone loses their bid. As for the smaller conferences, there is potential for some bid-stealers. Teams on the tournament bubble want to pay attention to the Atlantic-10 (Dayton is in), AAC (Florida Atlantic is likely in)WCC (Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are safely in), and Mountain West (several teams are in, but the team to watch is UNLV).

One potential bid stealer won on Sunday when Drake knocked off Indiana State in the MVC final. Indiana State is on the bubble.

ACC

In:
North Carolina [25-6 (17-3), Quad 1: 7-4; NET: 7]
Duke [24-7 (15-5), Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 10]
Clemson [21-10 (11-9); Quad 1: 5-5; NET: 26]

Bubble:
Wake Forest [19-12 (11-9); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 38]
Pittsburgh [21-10 (12-8); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 44]
Virginia [22-9 (13-7); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 51]
Virginia Tech [18-13 (10-10); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 56]

Wake Forest did their job when they knocked off Clemson in the finale. In their final six games, they defeated Duke, Pittsburgh, and Clemson while losing to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech. If anything sums up a middling bubble team, that should do it.

Essentially, North Carolina will be a #2 seed while Duke is likely a #3 with the potential to move up to a #2. Clemson is in, while the four bubble teams all need to do something in the ACC Tournament. If everything goes by the chalk, Wake Forest will take on Pittsburgh in the quarterfinals, while Virginia could be looking at a date with Clemson. Virginia Tech will need to get by Georgia Tech to get a shot at North Carolina.  I think one of the four teams will do enough to earn a bid, with the Pitt-Wake Forest game essentially an elimination game.

Yes, it speaks to the state of the ACC when Virginia, as a #3 seed, needs help to get to the NCAA Tournament. I can’t think of a weaker #3 seed in the history of the tournament.

American Athletic

In:

Florida Atlantic [24-7 (14-4); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 34]

Bubble:
Memphis [22-9 (11-7); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 69]
South Florida [23-6 (16-2); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 78]

Florida Atlantic defeated Memphis in the season finale, and that should be enough.

As for the rest, I have taken SMU off the list. Their NET is solid (55), but they didn’t win a Quad 1 game. Memphis would have a better case if they had completed the sweep of Florida Atlantic, but they failed. South Florida was relying on a major winning streak that was snapped in the season finale.

Essentially, this is a one-bid league that bubble teams have to watch carefully. If Florida Atlantic doesn’t win the crown, a bid will be stolen.

Atlantic 10

In:
Dayton [24-6 (14-4), Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 21]

Bubble:
None

Like Florida Atlantic, Dayton is not the top seed despite being the best team. The Flyers are in, but the tournament is one of the most wide-open in the country. Eight teams are in the NET Top 100, and nine teams have at least one Quadrant 1 victory. While I would give Florida Atlantic a 60% or so chance of winning the AAC, the strength and balance of the A-10 places Dayton under the 50% barrier – I would give them a 40% shot at cutting down the nets. As I stated last week, the only saving grace for bubble teams is that there is no chance for three bids here. Richmond, Loyola-Chicago, and VCU didn’t do enough to get into the at-large conversation.

Big 12

In:
Houston [28-3 (15-3), Quad 1: 13-3; NET: 1]
Iowa State [24-7 (13-5); Quad 1: 8-6; NET: 9]

BYU [22-9 (10-8), Quad 1: 6-7; NET: 12]
Baylor [22-9 (11-7); Quad 1: 9-8; NET: 14]
Kansas [22-9 (10-8); Quad 1: 7-8; NET: 18]
Texas [20-11 (9-9); Quad 1: 5-9; NET: 24]
Texas Tech [22-9 (11-7); Quad 1: 5-8; NET: 30]

Bubble
TCU [20-11 (9-9); Quad 1: 4-10; NET: 40]
Cincinnati [18-13 (7-11); Quad 1: 3-10; NET: 41]
Oklahoma [20-11 (8-10); Quad 1: 4-11; NET: 43]
Kansas State [18-13 (8-10); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 70]

Texas Tech is the 7th team from the Big 12 to earn a lock status.

This conference will not receive 11 bids. The most likely scenario puts them at nine, with TCU and Oklahoma the most likely other two squads. However, the two squads match up in the 8-vs-9 matchup in the second round, with the winner going on to face Houston. Their matchup may be an elimination matchup. Both teams didn’t play strong non-conference schedules, and their combined 8-21 mark in Quad 1 is hardly convincing. Both rely more on the lack of bad losses (Oklahoma didn’t lose outside of Quad 1, while TCU has a Quad 2 loss) than they do high-quality wins.

At the very least, Cincinnati would need to defeat Kansas in the second round while Kansas State may just need to beat both Texas and Iowa State to re-enter the conversation.

Big East

In:
UConn [28-3 (18-2); Quad 1: 11-3; NET: 3]
Creighton [23-8 (14-6); Quad 1: 8-5; NET: 11]
Marquette [23-8 (14-6); Quad 1: 8-7; NET: 13]

Bubble:
Villanova [17-14 (10-10); Quad 1: 4-10; NET: 33]
St. John’s [19-12 (11-9); Quad 1: 3-9; NET: 39]
Seton Hall [20-11 (13-7); Quad 1: 5-7; NET: 62]
Providence [19-12 (10-10); Quad 1: 5-8; NET: 64]
Butler [18-13 (9-11); Quad 1: 4-11; NET: 66]

It took a while to get some clarity, but we are getting closer to having this conference sort itself out. The first-round game between St. John’s and Seton Hall is fascinating, and probably more important for St. John’s. The Red Storm lost two Quad 1 wins when their victories over Villanova and Utah slipped back down to Quad 2. They are teetering on the Last Four In/First Four Out line, so beating Seton Hall is their way of feeling safer on Selection Sunday. The teams that need to do something significant are Villanova and Providence. Providence beating Georgetown and Villanova beating DePaul will do nothing to enhance their chances (lose those games, and they are done). It’s those juicy second-round matchups that will make or break them: Villanova would play Marquette while Providence would take on Creighton. When you look at all the big conference tournaments, those two games could have the most significant impact on where the bubble tilts. As for Butler, when you are in desperation mode, you want to play the best (UConn). That is what will happen if they can first get past Xavier.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [28-3 (17-3); Quad 1: 12-3; NET: 2]
Illinois [23-8 (14-6); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 15]
Wisconsin [19-12 (11-9); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 22]
Michigan State [18-13 (10-10); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 25]

Bubble:
Nebraska [22-9 (12-8); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 37]
Northwestern [21-10 (12-8); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 50]
Ohio State [19-12 (9-11); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 54]
Iowa [18-13 (10-10); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 60]

Like the Big East, the Big Ten has been a conference of haves and have not most of the year. While the Big East has a little more clarity now, the Big Ten does not. Northwestern has the advantage with those Quad 1 wins. Seriously, their loss to Chicago State (what the heck?) was so damaging to their resume. Without that loss, they would be unbeaten in Quad 3/4 with flashy wins over Dayton, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, and Nebraska. The Wildcats can also brag about taking Purdue to overtime on the road. It’s a combination of a not-so-good non-conference schedule (beyond Dayton) and a singular bad loss that keeps them sweating.

Does Michigan State deserve to slip back to the bubble? For now, I am saying no. Their NET remains strong enough to be considered “safe,” though they better not lose that 8-vs-9 game against Minnesota (18-13, 9-11).

Iowa and Ohio State face off in the 7-vs-10 contest. The winner is not guaranteed to go to the NCAA Tournament (they will likely need to defeat Illinois in the quarterfinals). However, the loser will be eliminated from consideration.

Missouri Valley

In:
Drake won the conference tournament.

Bubble:
Indiana State [28-6 (17-3); Quad 1: 1-4; NET: 29]

A frantic comeback came up short for Indiana State and they will now sweat out Selection Sunday. The Sycamores have a strong NET and good KenPom (43rd, better than Utah State, Washington StatePittsburgh, and South Carolina). Their lack of Quad 1 wins will hold them back, but they are 4-1 in Quadrant 2. It’s a solid resume – one that should be enough for one of the nation’s best mid-major teams.

Mountain West

In:
San Diego State [22-9 (11-7); Quad 1: 3-9; NET: 20]
Boise State [22-9 (13-5); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 23]
Nevada [26-6 (13-5); Quad 1: 7-5; NET: 31]
Utah State [26-5 (14-4); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 32]

Bubble:
New Mexico [22-9 (10-8); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 28]
Colorado State [22-9 (10-8); Quad 1: 5-7; NET: 36]
UNLV [19-11 (12-6); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 75]

It’s time to lock in three more teams. Boise State has six Quad 1 wins and Nevada has seven. Utah State won a tough conference outright and has one loss outside of Quad 1 (a Quad 2 loss to Bradley).

New Mexico has a better NET than Nevada and Utah State, but their resume isn’t as strong. The Lobos have as many Quad 1 wins as they do Quad 3/4 losses (2). They will get a first-round matchup against Air Force. Lose that game and they will be sweating profusely on Sunday. I don’t think they will need to follow that up with a win over Boise State.  Colorado State earned huge non-conference wins (Creighton, Colorado). In their case, they can’t afford to lose to San Jose State in the first round.

UNLV gets the Mountain West Tournament on their home floor. Their only path to the NCAA Tournament is winning the conference tourney. They were indeed missing a key player earlier this season, but it doesn’t excuse three Quad 4 losses.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [24-7 (15-5); Quad 1: 8-3; NET: 4]
Washington State [23-8 (14-6); Quad 1: 6-3; NET: 45]

Bubble:
Colorado [22-9 (13-7); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 27]
Utah [18-13 (9-11); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 52]
Oregon [20-11 (12-8); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 68]

Arizona may have blown their chance at a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament when they lost to USC. It still isn’t out of the question, though. You may be curious about Washington State, whose NET is not heading in a good direction. The Cougars are sitting on six Quad 1 wins, including a sweep of Arizona and a neutral-court win over Boise State. Yeah, they don’t want to lose to the winner of the California-Stanford game, but they are a safe team.

Colorado (KenPom: 27) benefited the most this weekend when they swept through Oregon. Their 6-game winning streak includes wins over Oregon and Utah and they haven’t lost a Quad 3/4 game. They get the winner of Utah-Arizona State in the second round.

While Colorado helped themselves in Oregon, Utah hurt themselves as they lost both games. The Utes will want the committee to look at their solid non-conference schedule (which includes a home win over BYU, a neutral court win over Wake Forest and a road win over St. Mary’s). They likely will need to beat Arizona State and Colorado to get back into the “Last four in” mix.

Oregon is nearly dead. Their saving grace is that they earned a first-round bye and a potential semi-final date with Arizona.

SEC

In:
Tennessee [24-7 (14-4), Quad 1: 7-6; NET: 5]
Auburn [24-7 (13-5); Quad 1: 1-7; NET: 6]

Alabama [21-10 (13-5); Quad 1: 3-9; NET: 8]
Kentucky [23-8 (13-5); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 19]
Florida [21-10 (11-7); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 35]
South Carolina [25-6 (13-5); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 49]

Bubble:
Mississippi State [19-12 (8-10); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 42]
Texas A&M [18-13 (9-9); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 46]

Tennessee had a chance to stamp their ticket to the #1 seed in the West but lost to Kentucky at home. While it is possible that North Carolina can enter the discussion, this is likely to come down to how Arizona and Tennessee fare in their conference tournaments. For Arizona, the difference between #1 and #2 isn’t much, as they will be out West regardless.

I am locking South Carolina in (finally). How many SEC teams with 25 regular-season wins (and 13 conference wins) are going to be left out? While their non-conference wasn’t great, they earned eight road wins this season (including Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State). As for Florida, losing to Vanderbilt was a bad loss. They should still feel good about themselves.

Mississippi State is the pure definition of a bubble team. On the good side, they have several solid wins. They lost their final four regular-season games, but all were against top-notch competition and three of the four games were close. Texas A&M is relying on their five Quad 1 wins. Here’s their big chance to improve their resume: If they get past Ole Miss in the first round, they’ll get a shot at Kentucky. What more can a bubble team ask for?

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [30-3 (15-3); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 55]

James Madison is in the title game of the Sun Belt Conference, where they will face off with Arkansas State, who upset top-seeded Appalachian State in the semi-finals. How crazy was that win? Appalachian State beat Arkansas State by 23 nine days earlier. The bad news for James Madison is that any shot at an at-large likely required losing to Appalachian State in the championship. A loss to Arkansas State does nothing for them.

West Coast

In:

Gonzaga [24-6 (14-2); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 16]
St. Mary’s [24-7 (15-1); Quad 1: 4-3; NET: 17]

Bubble:

None.

Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are safely in the tournament and nobody else has a shot. Bubble teams need one or the other to take this title.