Conference Tournament Preview: Atlantic 10

History: Over the last seven years, seven different teams have won the Atlantic-10 Tournament (the tournament wasn’t played in 2020. If it was played, Dayton likely makes it eight different teams in eight years). Temple, who left the league years ago, leads the way with nine tournament wins. Amongst teams still in the conference, UMass leads the way with five. Those five were won consecutively between 1992-1996.

The A-10 has produced multiple bids in the past, but it is unlikely in 2024 unless Dayton loses in the tournament.

Returning Champion: VCU. Hardly anyone challenged the Rams, who won their three games by a combined 42 points. They played an ugly game against St. Mary’s in the NCAA Tournament. St. Mary’s won the game, 63-51.

Format:  All 15 schools make it. The top four schools automatically advance to the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Dayton (24-6, 14-4)

The Flyers are guaranteed an NCAA Tournament spot, despite being the #3 seed in the tournament. A strong non-conference strength of schedule that featured wins over St. John’s (neutral), SMU (road), and Cincinnati (neutral) helped their resume immensely, as did playing Northwestern (5-point loss) and Houston (14-point loss). They are 7-6 in Quad 1/2 games and have zero bad losses.

While their 66.3 points against would suggest they are a defense-first team, the facts seem to point to them being better on the offensive side of the ball. They shoot 48.2% from the field (27th) and 40.7% from three (3rd). DaRon Holmes is a legitimate college basketball star, averaging 20.2 points and 8.3 rebounds. The 6’10” forward improved his three-point shooting this season, hitting 38.7% of his long-range jumpers.

Contenders: Richmond (23-8, 15-3), Loyola-Chicago (23-8, 15-3), UMass (20-10, 11-7), VCU (19-12, 11-7)

Live Long Shot:  La Salle (15-16, 6-12)

Preview:

I have a limit on the number of “Contenders” to list, otherwise, these previews can go on forever. However, this conference has a lot of contenders I did not list. It wouldn’t surprise me if George Mason (20 wins), St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph’s, or Duquesne (20 wins) won this tournament. St. Joseph’s defeated Villanova on their way to winning the Big 5 Classic and lost by eight to Kentucky in overtime. George Mason has a win over Dayton and beat Richmond by 18 in the season finale. If they can win the 8-9 game over St. Joseph’s, they would play Richmond in the quarterfinals. Duquesne went 0-3 in Quadrant 1 but won six games in Quadrant 2. They enter the tournament on a 4-game winning streak. St. Bonaventure is a 7 seed who could match up with Loyola-Chicago in the quarterfinals. The Bonnies defeated the Ramblers in their only meeting this year.

I am open to picking any of those teams to win, but let’s take a closer look at the contenders I chose:

Richmond is the surprise #1 seed. The Spiders destroyed UNLV on a neutral court and ended the season on a 6-1 run that clinched them a piece of the conference title. The senior-laden squad received a big season out of guard Jordan King (18.5 points) and has a top 30 defensive squad in the nation (KenPom). They allow only 66.1 points.

Loyola-Chicago went 10-21 in their first year in the Atlantic-10, perhaps leading to whispers that they will never be the same team they were in the Missouri Valley. They silenced any critics this season. Like Richmond, defense is their strength (24th in defensive efficiency) and they enter the tournament on a 10-1 run that includes a win over Dayton. Unlike Richmond, they don’t have a big star who can take over games. However, their balanced attack averages 73.4 points, mid-pack in the country.

UMass has been dormant forever. Other than their 8-7 record during the COVID-shortened 2020-2021 season, they hadn’t put together a winning season since 2014-2015, when they went 17-15. They have had one NCAA Tournament appearance since 1998. Frank Martin, who turned around the South Carolina program (including a Final Four appearance in 2017), is taking his third team (he also coached at Kansas State) on a magic carpet ride. They defeated South Florida in the non-conference and knocked off VCU (their potential quarterfinals opponent) in their only meeting this season.

VCU shouldn’t be ignored. The Rams had trouble getting over the hump in the non-conference but they had several close calls. They lost to Iowa State by four, Boise State by four, and Memphis by five in overtime. They lost their final three games, including road losses to Richmond (by three) and Dayton (overtime). In other words, if some of these coin flips went their way, we would have a bubble conversation. Now, they need to prove they are better than a team that keeps coming up short.

If La Salle survives this gauntlet, it would be a miracle. The Explorers went 4-2 down the stretch, including wins over UMass and Duquesne. They were chosen as the sleeper because they play in a 10-vs-15 game that feeds into #7 seed St. Bonaventure. One can see a faint path for them to make some noise.

Bottom Line:

You can make a case for most of the teams in this conference. Like the Mountain West, this league is deep and unpredictable. While the Mountain West could get six teams in the tournament, the A-10 is looking at two at the most. I feel as if taking a team at random is as good as any analysis.

Winner: Loyola-Chicago