Conference Tournament Preview: ACC

History: A conference loaded with history has three teams with 10+ tournament titles (Duke (22), North Carolina (18), and North Carolina State (10)). North Carolina State hasn’t won since 1987, however. It might surprise some that Syracuse and Louisville haven’t won a title since joining the league. Clemson, a league member since 1953, is also without a title.

The last team to pull off the ACC Tournament/NCAA Tournament double was Duke in 2010.

Returning Champion: Duke. The Blue Devils, as the #4 seed, took out top-seeded Miami in the semi-finals and second-seeded Virginia in the title game. In the NCAA Tournament, as a #5 seed, they lost to #4 seed Tennessee in the Round of 32.

Format:  All 15 schools make the tournament. Teams seeded 1-4 automatically go through to the quarterfinals. In the first round, #12 takes on #13, #10 takes on #15, and #11 takes on #14.

Favorite:  North Carolina (25-6, 17-3)

A 2-3 stretch from late January into early February left the Tar Heels vulnerable to losing the conference title. They followed that up with six straight wins to end the season.

While a #1 seed is unlikely, they can point to a head-to-head win over Tennessee in the ACC/SEC Challenge (the game was at home) as a reason they should be considered if they were to win the ACC Tournament.

One of the things that differentiates this North Carolina squad from past ones is their ability to play defense. They rank 5th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Offensively, they average 81.6 points (23rd in the nation).

Contenders: Duke (24-7, 15-5), Virginia (22-9, 13-7, Clemson (21-10, 11-9)

Live Long Shot:  Miami (15-16, 6-14)

Preview:

Duke struggled against North Carolina this season. However, it would be a mistake to discount a team that went 11-1 in games not played against the Tar Heels down the stretch. Their side of the bracket includes Virginia, Clemson, Syracuse, North Carolina State, Boston College, Miami, and Louisville. The Blue Devils went 8-0 against those teams this season, with only one game (Clemson) in doubt. In the non-conference, they lost to Arizona by five but defeated Baylor by eight. Despite being swept by North Carolina, they are one spot higher than them in the KenPom and their offense remains elite (7th in the KenPom; 80.2 points per game).

Virginia can’t score. This isn’t a case of an efficient team. They are 189th in offense (KenPom) and average only 63.5 points. In their final three losses, they scored 41 points against Virginia Tech, 44 points against North Carolina, and 48 points against Duke. Their saving grace is a 36.7% three-point percentage, though they don’t attempt many three-pointers per game. Defensively, they are one of the best in the nation in both defensive efficiency and points allowed (59.1). This keeps them in many games, but elite teams have mostly clobbered them.

Clemson made their presence known early in the season when they started 9-0 with wins over Boise State, Alabama, South Carolina, and TCU. Conference play wasn’t as friendly to them, though they did earn a win at North Carolina and a 1-point loss at Duke. Though they lost to Virginia at home, that is their path to the semifinals, where another date with Duke could await. Senior guard/forward trio Joseph Girard (15.7 points/2.9 assists), Chase Hunter (12.6 points/2.9 assists), and PJ Hall (18.8 points/6.6 rebounds) are what makes this team dangerous.

Miami was a preseason Top 25 team that fell apart. After a 5-0 start that included a win over Kansas State to take the Bahamas Championship, things started going haywire after blowout losses to Kentucky (22 points) and Colorado (27). The Hurricanes were still in the at-large conversation until they finished the season with nine straight losses. The Hurricanes can hit three-pointers (36.6%; 45th in the nation) and have the experience and star player (Norchard Omier) to surprise a few teams. Their path does not include Duke or North Carolina, so a minor run doesn’t seem impossible.

While I don’t see Wake Forest or Pittsburgh as major threats to win the tournament, their potential quarterfinal matchup could be an elimination game for the NCAA Tournament Bubble picture.

Bottom Line:

Duke and North Carolina have the upper hand. However, maybe it is time for a long drought to end.

Winner: Clemson cuts down the nets.