History: The wacky MAC typically produces a winner that teams don’t wish to see in the NCAA Tournament. Their most recent conquest was in 2021 when Ohio (who has a history of NCAA Tournament upsets) knocked off Virginia in a 13-vs-4 game. The past two years have produced close calls: Akron lost by four to UCLA in 2022 while Kent State lost to Indiana by 11 in 2023.
Three squads are tied for the most tournament titles (Ball State, Ohio, and Kent State have seven titles). Bowling Green is the only current league member to never win the tournament.
Despite the NCAA Tournament success stories, the MAC consistently receives only one NCAA Tournament bid. That won’t change in 2024.
Returning Champion: Kent State became the 4th different champion in the last four tournaments. As the #2 seed, they topped #1 Toledo by 15 in the championship.
Format: Only eight of the league’s 12 squads qualify. This year, Ball State, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, and Buffalo didn’t make the field. The tournament is straightforward.
Favorite: Akron (21-10, 13-5)
The Zips are the #2 seed, but I think they are the best team. In the non-conference (where they played one of the toughest schedules), they lost by three to Utah State on a neutral court and two to UNLV on the road. That said, despite installing them as the favorites, it should be noted that they are only 5-5 in their last ten games, including losing their final two games to squads who rank 321st and 285th in the NET.
This is a senior-laden team with one of the best players amongst all mid-majors: Forward Enrique Freeman averages 18.1 points and 12.8 rebounds, the top number in the country. Going back to the 1999-2000 season, he is 6th in defensive rebounds (954).
Can they get back to what they were earlier in the year? If not, there are plenty of others who can take this title.
Contenders: Toledo (20-11, 14-4), Ohio (19-12, 13-5), Central Michigan (18-13, 12-6), Bowling Green (19-12, 10-8)
Live Long Shot: Kent State (15-16, 8-10)
Preview:
The MAC is a fun league. I make it a point to watch this tournament (especially the championship).
Toledo played in the Big Dawgs Classic, a tournament with solid mid-majors. They went 0-3, but the games were close: New Mexico (8), UC-Irvine (6), and Indiana State (2). In a late-season game against Southland champion Appalachian State, they lost 109-104 in two overtimes. While defense isn’t their game, the Rockets can score (80.7 points; 63rd in adjusted offensive efficiency). They don’t love to shoot three-pointers (336th in attempts per game), but they are accurate when they do so (37.9%; 15th). They are a dangerous squad looking to break a long slump, as they haven’t reached the NCAA Tournament since 1980. This is despite having some good teams. This is their 4th straight 20+ win campaign and sixth in their last seven years.
As stated above, Ohio is a menace whenever they get to the NCAA Tournament. The last three times they have appeared in the Big Dance (2010, 2012, 2021), they have won at least one game (two in 2012). This is a well-balanced squad, with three players averaging between 12.4 – 13.9 points and 4.3 – 4.5 rebounds. There’s nothing “sexy” here and they didn’t challenge themselves much in the non-conference. However, they won six straight games to close the season, including wins over Akron and Bowling Green.
Central Michigan is the only team in the league with a Quad 1 win, as they defeated South Florida on the road (the Bulls lost on Saturday, which could drop that win to Quad 2). If the Chippewas face off with Toledo in the semi-finals, they should have some confidence as they beat the Rockets in their only meeting this season. Their biggest issue is that they are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, so they have to try to win ugly.
Bowling Green is a good story. The Falcons haven’t made it to the NCAA Tournament since 1968. This season was a nice turnaround for a squad that went 11-20 last year. Junior guard Marcus Hill is the star of the show, averaging 20.6 points and five rebounds. He is the definition of a volume scorer, as he launches 17 shots per game (44.5%).
Kent State was one of the preseason favorites, but they barely hung on to make the tournament. They didn’t do much in their two games against Toledo this season, but this is an experienced team that just couldn’t get much going after an early-season two-overtime loss to James Madison.
Bottom Line:
This is going to be fun. I think it is time for Toledo to end their NCAA Tournament drought.
Winner: Toledo