History: In a world of constant flux, the Big Sky Conference has remained mostly intact. Southern Utah left the league in 2022, but that is a rarity (and they were only in the conference for ten years). Montana and Weber State have traditionally dominated this league, with Montana winning 11 titles while Weber State has ten. However, Montana hasn’t won since 2019 while Weber State’s drought goes back to 2016.
In the NCAA Tournament, this league has had mild success. Their last win came in 2006 when Montana defeated Nevada in a 12-vs-5 contest. Weber State won two 14-vs-3 games, both against traditional powerhouses. In 1995, they defeated Michigan State 79-72. In 1999, they knocked off North Carolina by a 76-74 margin before losing to Florida in overtime.
Returning Champion: Montana State repeated its 2022 run with another win in 2023. Last year, as the #2 seed, they beat upstart #9 seed Northern Arizona. As the #1 seed in 2022, they destroyed Northern Colorado by 21. In last year’s NCAA Tournament, they played a respectable game against #3 seed Kansas State, losing by 12.
Format: All ten schools make the tournament, with seeds 7-10 playing in the first round.
Favorite: Eastern Washington (21-10, 15-3)
The Eagles enter the tournament on a 4-game winning streak. They challenged themselves in the non-conference, going 0-7 in Quad 1/2 games. Their closest loss was a 7-point loss to Washington, but they also played tough games against Mississippi, Cincinnati, and Washington State.
Five players, all of whom are juniors or seniors, averaged 10+ points per game. Their top four scorers are all listed as forwards, two of which stand 6’10”. Despite their size, both Ethan Price and Dane Erikstrup love to shoot the three and the team as a whole is at 36.9% (37th in the nation). They rank 71st in adjusted offensive efficiency and average 81.2 points.
Contenders: Northern Colorado (19-12, 12-6), Montana (21-10, 12-6), Weber State (20-11, 11-7)
Live Long Shot: Northern Arizona (14-18, 7-11)
Preview:
I love the Big Sky Conference Tournament. It’s played late at night (the title game is at 9:30 PM MT) and can be a rather fun tournament.
Northern Colorado lost a pair of close games to Eastern Washington this season. The Bears earned the #2 seed in the field, keeping them away from Eastern Washington until a potential title game. Like Eastern Washington, they like to score, averaging 80.4 points. They have a star junior forward: 6’7″ Saint Thomas averages a double-double (20 points/10 rebounds) and can distribute as well (4.0 assists). As a team, their 49.1% mark from the field is 16th in the country. They are one of the worst defensive squads in the nation, so their offense must show up.
Montana is always in the mix, aren’t they? The Grizzlies haven’t had a losing season since their 2007-2008 campaign, and this is their 9th 20+ win season since. They finished the year on a 5-1 run and played Nevada within 11 in the non-conference. You don’t want to fall behind this squad late, as their 80% free-throw percentage ranks 4th in the country. It’s a well-balanced team with senior leadership (five of their top six scorers are seniors).
Weber State is 8-2 in their last ten games. The Wildcats have a Quad 1 win on their resume (at St Mary’s) and are 2-0 in Quad 2 games (Yale on a neutral court and Eastern Washington on the road). Like Northern Colorado, the Wildcats have a player who averages a double-double: Junior forward Dillon Jones averages 20.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 5.2 assists. He can put the team on his back and win the three games they need to take the title.
Northern Arizona has a win over Eastern Washington and earned a Quad 2 win by beating Seattle on the road. That said, there is no hiding that they aren’t especially good offensively or defensively, and winning the 7-8 game over Idaho State won’t be simple.
Bottom Line:
This conference is a bit top-heavy, as Montana and Weber State try to reestablish themselves as the kings of the Big Sky. Eastern Washington had a great year, but I think Dillon Jones will be the difference-maker. There’s a chance he can match up with Northern Colorado‘s Saint Thomas in the championship.
Winner: Weber State