History: The Northeast Conference was never known for its NCAA Tournament accolades until last season when FDU defeated Purdue in a 16-vs-1 contest. More on that in a second. Robert Morris, no longer in the league, is the all-time Northeast Conference Tournament winner with nine titles. In the last six years, the league has produced six different champions.
Returning Champion: Merrimack. Say what? In case you didn’t remember, FDU did not win the tournament last year. That distinction went to Merrimack, a school that was still ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. FDU went to the NCAA Tournament as the league runner-up.
Format: Eight of the nine teams make the field. This year, Stonehill (who isn’t eligible for the NCAA Tournament) came in 9th place and is left out. This doesn’t mean that shenanigans are impossible yet again, as 4th-seeded Le Moyne is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.
Favorite: Merrimack (19-11, 13-3)
Merrimack is no longer in their transition period and is eligible for the NCAA Tournament in 2024. The Warriors have no shame in announcing themselves as a defensive squad, ranking 78th in the country in defensive efficiency. They allow only 66.3 points per game and did a decent job holding Ohio State and Florida in the 70s this season. They were riding high on a 10-game winning streak until losing to Sacred Heart on the final day of the season.
Contenders: Central Connecticut (19-10, 13-3), Sacred Heart (16-15, 10-6), FDU (15-16, 9-7)
Live Long Shot: Wagner (13-15, 7-9)
Preview:
While I installed Merrimack as the favorite, it is a 1A/1B situation with Central Connecticut State. The Blue Devils are the #1 seed since they had a better record against #3 Sacred Heart in the regular season. They finished the season with four straight wins, including what turned out to be the most important game for seeding: A 1-point road victory over Sacred Heart. While they are good at suppressing scoring (66.7), they are not nearly as efficient defensively as Merrimack.
Sacred Heart finished the season on a mini 4-1 run. The Pioneers are 45th in the nation in 3-point percentage (36.6%), though they take few three-point attempts per game (20.5; 244th). They defeated Merrimack on the last day of the season, and that is a potential semi-final matchup.
FDU will need a miracle to replicate last year’s miracle. There isn’t anything in their profile that suggests they can win this tournament, but it is always fair to respect the returning champions. They have two wins this year over teams that finished above .500 (Sacred Heart, St. Peter’s). The Knights will take on Le Moyne in the 4-vs-5 game.
Wagner will play Sacred Heart in the opening round, a team they played tough in two losses. The Seahawks are one of the worst offensive teams in college, averaging only 63.9 points. Their very slow, methodical pace doesn’t allow for much scoring on the other end of the floor either (63.0). They will go as far as Melvin Council Jr. will take them. He has ten straight double-digit scoring efforts and is the only player on the squad averaging double digits.
Bottom Line:
This is typically how the Northeast Conference goes. While many smaller conferences tend to have wacky tournaments, the Northeast Conference has played mostly to the chalk, as a team near the top of the league usually cuts down the nets. No team with a conference record below .500 has ever won this tournament, which dates back to 1982.
Winner: I won’t expect that to happen in 2024, either. While it would seemingly be “fair” for Merrimack to get to the NCAA Tournament one year after missing on a technicality alone, I think Central Connecticut State will be your winner when the dust settles.