History: Winthrop is the king of the Big South, winning 13 of the 38 championships in history. Their longest reign of terror was between 1999 and 2010, when they won the tournament nine times, with a singular NCAA Tournament win in 2007. No team from this conference has won a main-bracket NCAA Tournament game since.
Returning Champion: UNC Asheville dominated the regular season, winning the conference by four games, before winning three close games to take the conference championship. They lost in a 2-vs-15 game to UCLA by 33 points.
Format: All nine teams make the field. The #8 and #9 seeds play in a first-round game to determine who takes on the top seed.
Favorite: High Point (24-7, 13-3) – The Panthers have never made it to the NCAA Tournament. They entered Division I in 1999 and were once coached by Tubby Smith.
This year’s squad lost by eight to Georgia in the non-conference and rattled off nine straight conference wins at one point. This squad can score the basketball, as evidenced by their 84.6 scoring average and three players averaging between 15.5 and 17.8 points per game. They lead the nation in free throws made per game (20.9). Sometimes, a team that puts up a lot of points isn’t all that efficient. That is not the case with High Point, who rank 31st in adjusted offensive efficiency. As you may suspect, defense is not the name of their game.
Contenders: UNC Asheville (20-11, 12-4), Gardner-Webb (16-15, 11-5), Winthrop (17-14, 8-8)
Live Long Shot: USC Upstate (10-19, 5-11)
Preview:
This seems like a good year for High Point to get to the Big Dance, but UNC Asheville won’t be giving up its title easily. The Bulldogs split the season series with High Point and earned a Quad 2 win by beating Appalachian State on a neutral court. Like High Point, they like to score as they average 80.0 points per game with Drew Pember averaging 20.4 points and 7.9 rebounds. They aren’t nearly as efficient as High Point, though they do play slightly better on the defensive end.
Gardner Webb, as you might predict based on their 5-10 non-conference record, played a tough schedule this year. They went 0-7 in Quad 1/2, losing at Baylor by only 15 (that’s not bad). They won’t need to worry about High Point until a potential championship showdown. In the meantime, they might face UNC Asheville in the semifinals, a team they beat twice. While they play at a decent tempo, they are not much of an offensive team.
Winthrop is no longer the conference bully, but they should be respected. The Eagles lost to South Carolina by ten and Florida State by six on the road. While they lost their final two games, they were close against stiff conference competition: Four points to High Point (road) and one point to Gardner Webb. They are a volume free-throw shooting squad, leading the nation in attempts per game. If they were better than 70.2 percent, they would especially be dangerous.
Why is USC Upstate a live longshot? Only for one reason: They are in the 8-9 game. If they win that game, they play High Point, a team they upset on the road this year.
Bottom Line:
High Point is very good and could be a handful for someone in the NCAA Tournament. They are the cream of this crop – a team that is nearly a Top 100 team in the NET (107). Sometimes, I look for a hot team to dethrone the beast – but nobody in this league is hot enough to make you think that is happening.
Winner: High Point