History: Georgia State has won this title three times in the last five seasons, though they will not be the favorites to win in 2024. The last time the Sun Belt winner won an NCAA Tournament game was in 2016, when Little Rock knocked off Purdue, 85-83, in two overtimes. Little Rock has since left the conference. Western Kentucky, despite being out of the conference since 2014, has the most conference championships with nine.
Returning Champion: Louisiana, as the #2 seed, avoided the upset bug on their way to defeating the #7 seed (Georgia Southern), the #11 seed (Texas State), and the #8 seed (South Alabama) to take the championship. In the NCAA Tournament, they put a scare into #4 seed Tennessee, ultimately losing 58-55.
Format: All 14 teams make the field, with the top four seeds earning byes to the quarterfinals.
Favorite: Appalachian State (26-5, 16-2) – Close to being a bubble team, the Mountaineers swept mid-major darling James Madison. They rank 26th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, as they need the nation in blocked shots per game and second in defensive rebounds. Their 78.7 scoring average shows that they can hold their own on the offensive side of the floor, though they are not a high-impact 3-point shooting team.
The 26 wins are a new school record and the first time they have won 20+ games since the 2009-2010 season. They are 0-3 all-time in the NCAA Tournament.
Contenders: James Madison (28-3, 15-3), Troy (20-11, 13-5), Louisiana (18-13, 10-8), Arkansas State (16-15, 11-7)
Live Long Shot: Texas State (14-17, 7-11)
Preview:
Appalachian State is trouble – but this tournament has more than one potential NCAA Tournament disrupter.
James Madison captured everyone’s attention when they defeated Michigan State in the season opener. After that win, the Dukes appeared in the AP poll eight straight weeks, peaking at #18 on December 4th. A bad 10-point loss to Southern Mississippi knocked them out of the poll permanently. The Dukes are a high-scoring team, ranked 9th in the nation with 84.6 points per game. Everything runs through 6’6″ junior guard Terrence Edwards, who averages 17.6 points and 3.3 assists per game. After their six-point loss to Appalachian State on January 27th, they have rattled off ten straight wins, scoring 80+ points in their last six contests.
Schedules are weird sometimes. Troy didn’t play James Madison once this year. They played Appalachian State once, beating them 66-62 in January. Given their fortune, you would think they would have played even better than their 13-5 conference mark. The Trojans like tempo in their game, as they are 65th in adjusted tempo while averaging 79.9 points per game. They are on the same side of the bracket as James Madison and have a potential quarterfinals date with Southern Mississippi, who they split with this season.
Louisiana is trying to pull off the repeat. The Ragin’ Cajuns are a junior-laden squad (to say the least), as their top six scorers all fall into that bucket. Looking like a contender most of the year, a late-season 4-game losing streak dropped them down to the #5 seed, meaning they will need to win an extra game in their journey to a championship. Awaiting them in the quarterfinals would be Arkansas State. Unlike Louisiana, the Red Wolves enter the tournament on a hot streak, finishing the season on a 6-1 run to clinch the coveted #4 seed. During that stretch, they defeated Troy twice but lost to Appalachian State by 23 to close out the season.
Texas State is the 11 seed. The Bobcats won their final three games, including the season-ending conquest of Troy, which is who they would face if they can win a pair of games. Offensively, you are looking at one of the worst teams in the nation. However, they can play some defense and they did challenge themselves with a tough non-conference slate that included games against Texas and Houston.
Bottom Line:
I want to see James Madison – Appalachian State III, and there is a very good chance that it will happen. It is a fairly competitive conference, but those two teams have dominated it from the jump. If we get a Part 3, I believe James Madison will finally get over the hump.
Winner: James Madison