A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games on Friday, March 1.
NET, not my bubble preference is how I rank the teams. I have to rank by something, and using the NCAA’s tool seems like a good start.
ACC
In:
North Carolina [22-6 (14-3), Quad 1: 7-4; NET: 9]
Duke [22-6 (13-4), Quad 1: 6-3; NET: 13]
Clemson [20-8 (10-7); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 22]
Bubble:
Wake Forest [18-10 (10-7); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 27]
Virginia [21-8 (12-6); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 46]
Pittsburgh [18-10 (9-8); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 49]
North Carolina is a solid #2 seed while Duke appears headed for a #3 seed. Clemson is now a lock, looking at a #5 or #6 seed in the Big Dance.
Wake Forest has a resume with good points and bad points. The Demon Deacons have zero bad losses (12-0 in Quad 3/4) but their road/neutral record (3-10) doesn’t impress, especially since those wins are over Towson, Boston College, and Georgia Tech.
Virginia goes on the road to play Duke on Saturday. If they win, the Cavaliers will be sitting pretty. If they lose, it won’t crush them but ACC Tournament damage would be needed.
Pittsburgh could have added Clemson to their road conquests of Duke and Virginia but fell by seven. Their final three games don’t offer much in terms of resume-boosting, but they can’t afford to lose any of them.
American Athletic
Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [21-7 (11-4); Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 35]
SMU [18-9 (10-5); Quad 1: 0-4; NET: 44]
South Florida [21-5 (14-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 85]
Being ranked in the Top 25 doesn’t mean anything to the committee, but South Florida is emerging as an intriguing story if they don’t win the AAC tournament.
Florida Atlantic has a lot of good in its profile. Their profile has taken a hit thanks to the three teams they beat in the ESPN Events Invitational (Butler, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech) struggling recently. A strong schedule + a win over Arizona should outweigh their two Quad 4 losses, but it is much closer than it needs to be.
SMU is 2-8 in Quad 1/2. The wins were over non-tournament squads (Florida State on the road, Memphis at home). Their profile does not scream NCAA Tournament team.
As mentioned above, South Florida is an interesting story. The Bulls finally earned a Quad 1 win, from a game played weeks ago (their away win over Memphis on 1/18 now qualifies) but suffered a pair of bad Quad 4 losses back in November. One of their biggest issues was something they couldn’t control: They only played Florida Atlantic once, and it was at home. A game at Charlotte (11-1 at home) awaits on Saturday.
Atlantic 10
Bubble:
Dayton [22-6 (12-4), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 21]
Dayton likely lost any chance they had at the regular-season title with their loss to Loyola-Chicago on Friday. Now, they are in danger of falling to the #4 seed, as they finish the season on 3/8 against VCU. The positives still exist: A top ten non-conference schedule that included wins over St. John’s (neutral), Cincinnati (neutral), and SMU (road). The Flyers also lost by five on the road to Northwestern and 14 on a neutral court to Houston. Beyond that, they have zero Quad 3/4 losses. It all adds up to a resume that never required an A-10 title to justify its worthiness. They should be in, but don’t want to tempt fate by losing at St. Louis on Tuesday.
Richmond (NET: 72), VCU (NET: 74), and Loyola-Chicago (NET: 93) are three solid teams with seasons to be proud of, but all three will likely require a conference tournament crown to get in. It has been a season of close calls for VCU, as they have losses to Iowa State (by four), Boise State (four), and Memphis (five). What happens if they complete a sweep of Dayton on March 8th? We’ll see if that can at least get them a closer bubble look.
Big 12
In:
Houston [25-3 (12-3), Quad 1: 8-3; NET: 1]
Iowa State [22-6 (11-4); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 8]
BYU [20-8 (8-7), Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 10]
Baylor [19-8 (9-6); Quad 1: 6-7; NET: 14]
Kansas [21-7 (9-6); Quad 1: 6-6; NET: 17]
Bubble
Texas [18-10 (7-8); Quad 1: 5-7; NET: 33]
TCU [19-9 (8-7); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 37]
Oklahoma [19-9 (7-8); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 41]
Texas Tech [19-9 (8-7); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 42]
Cincinnati [16-12 (5-10); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 45]
I am sure more than one person said “Let’s see how Houston does when they join a deep conference!” Well, the Cougars joined the toughest conference in America and continue to dominate. Is this their year?
Texas jumped seven places in the NET to jump to the top of the bubble list. The Longhorns are 4-5 in road games, but only one of those games was against a bad team (West Virginia). The funny thing is that West Virginia won that game. The committee loves quality road wins, and that will carry Texas safely into the tourney.
TCU can do themselves a major favor by beating BYU on the road Saturday If they lose that game, the Horned Frogs would be wise to not lose to West Virginia or UCF. In other words, they are on solid ground but they can’t give the committee a reason for using their atrocious non-conference slate against them.
Oklahoma is 1-3 during a tough stretch of their schedule (the one win was against the not-so-good team (Oklahoma State) in overtime). The Sooners close with Houston, Cincinnati, and Texas. Would an 0-3 finish followed by a first-round loss in the Big 12 tournament place them in danger?
Texas Tech didn’t earn any quality wins in the non-conference but has quality in-conference wins. For the sake of their fans’ sanity, they would be wise to win the road games against West Virginia and Oklahoma State.
Cincinnati is teetering on extinction. The Bearcats are 3-8 in their last 11 games, with losses to West Virginia and Oklahoma State mixed in. When the only thing that is keeping you afloat is the conference you play in, that’s not a good sign.
Big East
In:
UConn [25-3 (15-2); Quad 1: 9-3; NET: 4]
Marquette [22-6 (13-4); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 11]
Creighton [21-8 (12-6); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 12]
Bubble:
Villanova [16-12 (9-8); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 32]
St. John’s [17-12 (9-9); Quad 1: 4-9; NET: 39]
Providence [18-10 (9-8); Quad 1: 5-7; NET: 56]
Seton Hall [18-10 (11-6); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 64]
Butler [16-13 (7-11); Quad 1: 3-11; NET: 69]
This puzzle is hardly being solved. The only thing for certain is that the Big East is a 3-team league this season. Everyone else is fighting for whatever number of crumbs the committee wishes to throw their way. If I had to place percentages on it: 5-bid league: 65%; 6-bid league: 30%; 7-bid league: 5%.
Villanova mauled Georgetown, which is exactly what they needed to do. Their remaining three games include two road contests (Providence, Seton Hall) and one home contest (Creighton). Suffice it to say, 16-15 (9-11) isn’t going to impress the committee, so they should win at least one of these games + do some Big East Tournament damage.
St. John’s earned a big road win over Butler, and their neutral court win over Utah months ago has risen (barely) into Quad 1. The Red Storm have two games remaining (at DePaul, Georgetown). Those games can only hurt them, not help them, so they will need to beat a strong team in the Big East Tournament to have a shot.
How well have the bubble teams played against the “Big Three” in the Big East? For Providence, the answer is very well. The Friars are 2-2 with one game left (home against UConn). The Friars have zero bad losses. If they sweep their two remaining home games, lock them in. Those games are against Villanova and UConn, so good luck.
Seton Hall had no answers in their loss to Creighton on Wednesday. If they complete the sweep of UConn on Sunday, everything else is gravy. If not, a 2-1 finish leaves them at 20-11 (13-7), which would be a solid case for an at-large heading into the Big East Tournament.
When Butler defeated Creighton on the road on February 2nd, they were 15-7 and looked like a solid NCAA Tournament team. The Bulldogs are 1-6 since, as a tough schedule caught up to them. They will need a solid Big East Tournament run.
Big Ten
In:
Purdue [25-3 (14-3); Quad 1: 9-3; NET: 2]
Illinois [21-7 (12-5); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 16]
Wisconsin [18-10 (10-7); Quad 1: 6-6; NET: 23]
Michigan State [17-11 (9-8); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 24]
Bubble:
Nebraska [20-9 (10-8); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 43]
Northwestern [20-8 (11-6); Quad 1: 5-5; NET: 48]
Iowa [17-12 (9-9); Quad 1: 2-8; NET: 60]
Ohio State [17-12 (7-11); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 63]
The Big Ten appears destined for six bids. Can they earn a 7th? Iowa and Ohio State are trying to make their cases.
Nebraska shouldn’t feel 100% comfortable themselves. Their loss to Ohio State dropped them to 2-8 in road games and their non-conference schedule wasn’t good. That said, the Cornhuskers have zero bad losses. Their final two games (Rutgers, at Michigan) are games they should win.
Northwestern has an overtime win and loss against Purdue and an impressive win over Dayton in the non-conference (a much-needed win, since their non-conference schedule was bad). The Wildcats are as good of a story as any this season, and a 2-1 finish probably clinches a bid.
Iowa has work to do. Part of that work includes winning their final two games: Northwestern (road), and Illinois. The KenPom (50th) likes them more than the NET.
Ohio State is starting to roll at the right time. The Buckeyes are 3-1 in their last four games, with the three wins all of the high quality (Purdue, Michigan State, Nebraska). From 1/6-2/6, they went 1-8 with losses to Michigan (ouch) and Indiana mixed in. They can point to their win over Alabama as a counter to that terrible stretch. It should be noted that they only have one true road win – their 2/25 defeat of Michigan State.
Ivy League
Bubble:
Princeton [22-3 (10-2); Quad 1: 0-0; NET: 51]
The winners of seven straight, the Tigers have a big game against Cornell on Saturday. The winner will likely earn at least a share of the regular-season title (along with Harvard, also 10-2). It is important to earn the #1 seed in the tournament because there are three strong teams in this league. As of this moment, the top seed would play #4 Brown (9-17; NET: 219).
Missouri Valley
Bubble:
Indiana State [25-5 (16-3); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 28]
Drake [24-6 (15-4); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 52]
Indiana State jumped up five places in the NET, which is important. No Top 30 team in the NET has ever been left out of the tournament. That said, if they lose in the conference tournament, their NET will likely drop. Anyway, the Sycamores have won three straight by a combined 52 points as they are seemingly over their malaise. They close the season on Sunday against Murray State.
Drake came close to wiping themselves off the map but outlasted UIC 107-105 in three overtimes. Their season-closing game against Bradley on Sunday is a Quad 2 contest. Drake enters the game on a 20-game home winning streak.
Mountain West
In:
San Diego State [22-7 (11-5); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 18]
Bubble:
New Mexico [21-7 (9-6); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 25]
Boise State [20-8 (11-4); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 26]
Colorado State [20-9 (8-8); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 29]
Utah State [24-5 (12-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 36]
Nevada [24-6 (11-5); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 40]
UNLV [17-10 (10-5); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 81]
I don’t care what league your favorite team is in – nothing beats the Mountain West for pure insanity. Five teams are either 12-4, 11-4, 11-5, or 10-5 with a few games left to go.
All the bunching up makes it hard to differentiate between resumes. New Mexico was locked in by me until the weird home loss to Air Force. They haven’t played since, but better be ready for Saturday’s road contest against Boise State.
Speaking of Boise State, the Broncos have taken care of the easier part of their schedule, going 4-0 against Fresno State, San Jose State, Wyoming, and Air Force. They finish with a flurry of toughies: New Mexico, Nevada, and San Diego State (road).
Colorado State has lost three in a row, knocking them out of the conference race. To their credit, all three losses were close (a combined 11 points). The Rams should finish 22-8, as their final two games are against Wyoming and Air Force.
Utah State gave their supporters a heart attack before pulling through to beat Fresno State in overtime. As you can see, the teams at the bottom of the conference aren’t rolling over for the “big boys.” The Aggies finish their season with games against San Jose State and New Mexico.
Nevada was 3-4 in conference play at one point. The Wolf Pack are on a 8-1 run since and have the most Quad 1 wins in the league. Their NET may be the second worst amongst the bubble teams, but they are in very good shape.
UNLV is all about the potential for chaos. Their final two games are against San Diego State and Nevada, giving them a chance at seven Quad 1 wins. Their strong non-conference schedule included a win over Creighton and a 2-OT loss to St. Mary’s. The Rebels are where they are because of three losses: Southern, Loyola Marymount, and Air Force. The Air Force loss was by 32 at home. While this might not be a big detail, they still have a shot to win the regular-season conference title. I can see the committee rewarding a shock bid, but a lot of things still need to go right.
Pac-12
In:
Arizona [22-6 (13-4); Quad 1: 8-3; NET: 3]
Washington State [22-7 (13-5); Quad 1: 6-3; NET: 38]
Bubble:
Colorado [19-9 (10-7); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 30]
Utah [17-11 (8-9); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 50]
Oregon [19-9 (11-6); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 65]
A NET of 39 is not typically something one should lock-in, but that sweep of Arizona will shine a big light in the committee’s eyes. Washington State must avoid losing to UCLA/Washington in the final two games. Washington has played a lot of close games against tough competition, so that is no gimmie.
Colorado finishes their season on the road against the two Oregon schools. Their resume is iffy (despite having a better NET than Washington State) because of that singular Quad 1 win. Their NET is lifted by their zero Quad 3/4 losses + seven wins in Quad 2. It is far from a slam dunk for the Buffaloes.
Utah has only two road wins (one of which is high quality – St. Mary’s). The Utes can claim strong non-conference conquests, as they defeated St. Mary’s, BYU, and Wake Forest. They split with Colorado and Washington State while taking Arizona to three overtimes on 2/8. They check a lot of boxes, but work is required in the Pac-12 tournament. Like Colorado, they travel to Oregon to play the two Oregon schools to finish off the season.
A team like Oregon just wants a chance to prove themselves. Well, here is their chance: Their final three games are Arizona (road), Colorado, and Utah. The Ducks defeated nobody of consequence in the non-conference, so they need to do some late-season damage.
SEC
In:
Tennessee [22-6 (12-3), Quad 1: 5-5; NET: 5]
Alabama [20-8 (12-3); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 6]
Auburn [21-7 (10-5); Quad 1: 1-7; NET: 7]
Kentucky [20-8 (10-5); Quad 1: 5-5; NET: 20]
Bubble:
Mississippi State [19-9 (8-7); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 31]
Florida [20-8 (10-5); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 34]
South Carolina [23-5 (11-4); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 47]
Texas A&M [15-13 (6-9); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 58]
Ole Miss [19-9 (6-9); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 78]
Draw a bold line in ink underneath South Carolina. The seven teams above that line are getting their names called on Selection Sunday. The two teams under them need to fix things in a hurry.
Mississippi State won five in a row against teams they were supposed to beat before falling to Kentucky by two at home. Two of their Quad 1 wins are in the top ten, which is impressive. Their losses to Georgia Tech (road) and Southern are damaging but they have done enough to cover for that. All this said, their tough end-of-the-season schedule continues as their final three games are against Auburn (road), Texas A&M (road), and South Carolina.
Florida has zero bad losses, though their best non-conference win was on a neutral court against Pittsburgh. A 20/10 SEC team is not likely to be left out.
That bodes well for South Carolina as well. The computers have dinged the Gamecocks for most of the season, and for good reason as they played a bad non-conference schedule. They are 10-3 on road/neutral courts, including recent back-to-back wins over Ole Miss and Texas A&M. It would feel like a travesty if they didn’t get in.
Texas A&M has lost five in a row at the worst possible time. Their resume is drowning, though they can still claim those five Quad 1 wins on their tax return. The Aggies defeated Ohio State and SMU in non-conference road games and lost to Houston by only four on a neutral court. They can be a high-loss at-large but they have to stop this gushing wound in a hurry.
Ole Miss is 14-0 in Quad 3/4 (yay!), but the rest of the resume has tanked. Their only win in February came against Missouri. To be fair to the Rebels, February was probably the toughest month of games that any team in the country was asked to play. However, you have to win at least a few of them.
Southland
Bubble:
McNeese [25-3 (14-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 55]
The Cowboys will be 28-3 (unless something bizarre happens) entering the Southland Tournament. They played a solid non-conference schedule, but don’t have that “Look at us!” win to point to. Furthermore, the Southland is the 27th-ranked conference (out of 33). Essentially, McNeese is a rare outlier as the Southland rarely (never?) has bubble teams.
Their best win was on the road against VCU, which keeps teetering between a weak Quad 1 and a strong Quad 2. We all love to see these teams in the NCAA Tournament, so let’s hope they can win their conference tournament.
Sun Belt
Bubble:
James Madison [28-3 (15-3); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 53]
James Madison finished their regular season on a 10-game winning streak and will enter the Sun Belt Tournament as the #2 seed behind Appalachian State, the team that has given the Dukes nightmares all season (two of their three losses). I don’t think they are earning an at-large, but if they want a chance they need to get to the title game.
West Coast
In:
St. Mary’s [24-6 (15-0); Quad 1: 4-2; NET: 15]
Bubble:
Gonzaga [23-6 (13-2); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 19]
St. Mary’s needs to beat Gonzaga on Saturday to complete their unbeaten conference season.
While Gonzaga is locked into the #2 seed, it is a chance at a huge road win for the Bulldogs. Adding St. Mary’s to their conquests of Kentucky and San Francisco will probably clinch their spot.
San Francisco falls off the bubble as their loss to Gonzaga will be too much to overcome. The Dons are the third-best team in the conference, but the gap between them and the top two still feels significant.
WAC
Bubble:
Grand Canyon [25-4 (15-3); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 54]
Grand Canyon deserves their chance to pull off a NCAA Tournament upset in 2024. Their path to doing that comes through winning the conference tournament.