A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games on Sunday, February 25th.
NET, not my bubble preference is how I rank the teams. I have to rank by something, and using the NCAA’s tool seems like a good start.
Is Florida Atlantic in any danger? Is there still a chance for a team out of the Princeton/McNeese/Indiana State/Drake/Grand Canyon/James Madison bucket to earn an at-large? Let’s analyze some of that below.
ACC
In:
North Carolina [21-6 (13-3), Quad 1: 7-4; KenPom: 8; NET: 9]
Duke [21-6 (12-4), Quad 1: 6-3; KenPom: 9; NET: 10]
Bubble:
Clemson [19-8 (9-7); Quad 1: 4-3; KenPom: 24; NET: 23]
Wake Forest [18-9 (10-6); Quad 1: 1-4; KenPom: 19; NET: 25]
Pittsburgh [18-9 (9-7); Quad 1: 3-5; KenPom: 54; NET: 47]
Virginia [20-8 (11-6); Quad 1: 3-4; KenPom: 66; NET: 49]
Virginia Tech [15-12 (7-9); Quad 1: 3-8; KenPom: 55; NET: 56]
North Carolina pushes ahead of Duke, and it may be hard for the Blue Devils to overtake them. Remember that the ACC doesn’t have a tiebreaker – if 2+ teams tie for the best record in the conference, they are all recognized as the regular-season champions. They will use tiebreakers for tournament seeding.
Barring an 0-4 finish and a first-round exit in the ACC Tournament, Clemson is in good shape. Wins over Pitt and Notre Dame this week could be enough.
Wake Forest earned a massive win over Duke on Saturday. Why wasn’t that their second Quad 1 win? Their home win over Florida is back to being a strong Quad 2 victory. Their Quad 1 resume is why they aren’t locked in.
Pittsburgh (6-3 on the road) has a big game at Clemson on Tuesday. The Panthers close with three Quad 3 games, so this is their last chance to put their stamp on a bid.
Virginia can’t score (under 50 points in their last three games). The Cavaliers can’t fall into a trap and lose at Boston College on Wednesday. Their big game with Duke follows that.
Virginia Tech is now 1-8 on the road (3-10 in road/neutral) after their loss to Pittsburgh. Syracuse offers an opportunity at a needed Quad 2 road win on Tuesday. A home game with Wake Forest follows that.
American Athletic
Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [21-7 (11-4); Quad 1: 1-1; KenPom: 35; NET: 37]
SMU [18-9 (10-5); Quad 1: 0-3; KenPom: 45; NET: 43]
South Florida [21-5 (14-1); Quad 1: 0-0; KenPom: 93; NET: 84]
While the AAC is competitive, a Florida Atlantic tournament win could leave them with only one bid.
South Florida is officially running away with the regular-season title. Their NET is mediocre (but improving) and it is too bad that the Bulls played Florida Atlantic and SMU once apiece, both at home. I don’t know what the committee would do with them if they lose in the conference tournament, but they have to be considered.
Florida Atlantic is 0-3 in their last three conference road games, losing to UAB, South Florida, and Memphis. The Owls played a solid non-conference schedule, though most of the wins beyond Arizona have slipped into Quadrant 2, where they are 6-4. I think their footing is solid but that 3/6 game at North Texas (14-12) could be tricky.
SMU is 1-8 in Quad 1/Quad 2. The Mustangs had a shot to solidify their resume but lost a pair of road games to Florida Atlantic and South Florida. Their resume is being held together by duct tape, despite their decent NET.
Atlantic 10
Bubble:
Dayton [21-5 (11-3), Quad 1: 3-3; KenPom: 26; NET: 20]
Dayton hasn’t played since their 2/21 loss to George Mason. Assuming they get past Davidson, their Friday night game at Loyola-Chicago will play a role in determining the regular-season A-10 champions. Loyola is tied with Richmond at the top, but neither is an at-large threat.
Big 12
In:
Houston [24-3 (11-3), Quad 1: 7-3; KenPom: 1; NET: 1]
Iowa State [21-6 (10-4); Quad 1: 6-4; KenPom: 11; NET: 8]
BYU [19-8 (7-7), Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 18; NET: 13]
Kansas [21-6 (9-5); Quad 1: 7-5; KenPom: 15; NET: 14]
Baylor [18-8 (8-6); Quad 1: 5-8; KenPom: 14; NET: 16]
Bubble
TCU [19-8 (8-6); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 25; NET: 30]
Texas Tech [19-8 (8-6); Quad 1: 5-7; KenPom: 31; NET: 35]
Oklahoma [19-8 (7-7); Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 38; NET: 39]
Texas [17-10 (6-8); Quad 1: 4-7; KenPom: 36; NET: 40]
Cincinnati [16-11 (5-9); Quad 1: 4-7; KenPom: 47; NET: 45]
The bubble teams continue to shift. There is an obvious gap between the top of the conference and the middle, but most of these teams could win an NCAA Tournament game. By the way, BYU is 5-5 in their last ten games but their NET has barely moved. Three of their remaining four games are brutal (Kansas (road), TCU, and Iowa State (road). If they go 0-3 and lose to Oklahoma State at home (the Cougars lost to the Cowboys on the road), could it get interesting? Maybe.
TCU is dinged by me (and the NET) due to an atrocious non-conference slate that didn’t include one quality win. Playing in the Big 12 has offered up opportunities, and wins over Houston and Baylor (road) stand out. Additionally, they are 3-4 in conference road games, with several close losses (Kansas (2 points), Cincinnati (4, in overtime), and Texas Tech (1)). Bottom line? Tournament committees hate bad non-conference schedules but TCU has counteracted that with solid play within the nation’s best conference.
Texas Tech echos TCU – bad non-conference schedule void of a big win. Their Saturday loss at UCF stings, but they can make up for that by beating Texas on Tuesday.
Oklahoma needed a buzzer-beater to avoid a devastating loss to Oklahoma State (one of only two Big 12 schools (West Virginia) that I haven’t featured in the Bubble Watch). Their remaining schedule may be the most brutal in the country: Iowa State (road), Houston, Cincinnati, Texas (road). It would serve them well to win one.
Texas is equal parts intriguing and frustrating. Can they solidify their position with a win at Texas Tech on Tuesday?
Cincinnati is trying to spoil the “Big 12 will get ten bids!” party. The Bearcats are 1-4 in their last five games and go to Houston on Tuesday. Good luck (?)
Big East
In:
UConn [25-3 (15-2); Quad 1: 9-3; KenPom: 3; NET: 3]
Creighton [20-8 (11-6); Quad 1: 6-5; KenPom: 12; NET: 11]
Marquette [21-6 (12-4); Quad 1: 6-5; KenPom: 13; NET: 12]
Bubble:
Villanova [15-12 (8-8); Quad 1: 3-8; KenPom: 33; NET: 38]
Saint John’s [16-12 (8-9); Quad 1: 2-9; KenPom: 39; NET: 44]
Providence [18-9 (9-7); Quad 1: 5-6; KenPom: 53; NET: 55]
Seton Hall [18-9 (11-5); Quad 1: 5-5; KenPom: 56; NET: 61]
Butler [16-12 (7-10); Quad 1: 3-11; KenPom: 58; NET: 62]
UConn has the regular-season title all but wrapped up and will fight for the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Big East continues to be a 3-team league with a wild bunch-up underneath. Can they get as many as six bids? Five is more realistic, but six isn’t impossible.
Villanova? It’s a broken record. The Wildcats hope their wins over Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Creighton (road) carry the day. They had a chance to make a statement against UConn and flopped.
Saint John‘s is far away from being a contender, but the Red Storm’s chances would have been closing in on zero if they lost at home to Creighton. Can they beat struggling Butler on the road?
Providence is the latest team to knock Xavier down, as the Friars won an important road game by four. You can do worse than 8-9 in Quad 1/2 games without a bad loss. They go to Marquette on Wednesday.
Seton Hall‘s NET isn’t great, but the Pirates are on solid ground. They are 3-0 during what I called a “6-game gauntlet,” but those three teams have fallen (Xavier, St. John’s (road), Butler). If they can find a way to split their next two games (road against Creighton and UConn), good luck trying to keep them out.
Butler ran into a tough part of their schedule. They are 3-5 during this stretch, including 1-5 in their last six. The Bulldogs desperately need to beat St. John’s at home.
Xavier fell under .500, eliminating themselves from bubble consideration. If the Musketeers can go on a late-season run, I will re-add them.
Big Ten
In:
Purdue [25-3 (14-3); Quad 1: 9-3; KenPom: 2; NET: 2]
Illinois [20-7 (11-5); Quad 1: 4-5; KenPom: 10; NET: 17]
Wisconsin [18-9 (10-6); Quad 1: 7-6; KenPom: 22; NET: 22]
Michigan State [17-11 (9-8); Quad 1: 3-8; KenPom: 20; NET: 24]
Bubble:
Nebraska [19-8 (9-7); Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 34; NET: 41]
Northwestern [19-8 (10-6); Quad 1: 4-5; KenPom: 43; NET: 53]
Iowa [16-12 (8-9); Quad 1: 3-8; KenPom: 49; NET: 60]
Ohio State [16-12 (6-11); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 62; NET: 66]
As soon as I lock in Michigan State, they lose back-to-back home games to Iowa and Ohio State. I will keep them there, but the rest of their regular-season schedule isn’t easy (Purdue (road), Northwestern, Indiana (road)).
Nebraska isn’t going to earn many points for their 4-game winning streak (Michigan, Penn State, Indiana (road), Minnesota), but losing any of those games would have hurt their chances. The Cornhuskers are in compiler mode but need to be careful as two of their final three games are on the road (Ohio State, Michigan).
Northwestern has pulled into a tie for third in the conference (Wisconsin), as they are 4-1 in their last five games. Don’t lose that road game to Maryland this week!
Iowa was going for a third straight big win (after beating Wisconsin and Michigan State) but came up ten points short at Illinois. The Hawkeyes need work had help. They will get another shot at Illinois to close out the season.
Ohio State earns a spot on my list after knocking off Purdue and Michigan State on back-to-back Sundays. Their non-conference win over Alabama certainly helps, but they likely need to finish the season 19-12 (9-11) + some work in the Big Ten Tournament.
Ivy League
Bubble:
Princeton [21-3 (9-2); Quad 1: 0-0; KenPom: 64; NET: 51]
The winners of six straight, the Tigers have a big game against Cornell on Saturday. The winner will likely earn at least a share of the regular-season title (along with Harvard, also 9-2)
Missouri Valley
Bubble:
Indiana State [24-5 (15-3); Quad 1: 1-3; KenPom: 46; NET: 33]
Drake [23-6 (14-4); Quad 1: 2-1; KenPom: 50; NET: 46]
Drake fell off the conference pace by losing to Northern Iowa by 14. Meanwhile, Indiana State is tired of their random losses as they crushed Valparaiso and UIC by a combined 34 points. In terms of the bubble, it could be interesting if both teams win out until the conference title game. Would that guarantee a slot for both?
Mountain West
In:
San Diego State [21-7 (10-5); Quad 1: 5-7; KenPom: 16; NET: 18]
Bubble:
New Mexico [21-7 (9-6); Quad 1: 4-3; KenPom: 32; NET: 26]
Colorado State [20-8 (8-7); Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 29; NET: 27]
Utah State [22-5 (10-4); Quad 1: 3-4; KenPom: 40; NET: 29]
Boise State [19-8 (10-4); Quad 1: 5-5; KenPom: 42; NET: 32]
Nevada [22-6 (9-5); Quad 1: 5-4; KenPom: 41; NET: 42]
UNLV [16-10 (9-5); Quad 1: 5-4; KenPom: 75; NET: 81]
As we enter the final stretch of the season, five teams have either four or five conference losses.
I had two choices with New Mexico this week. I don’t want to take teams I place into the “In” category out, but I felt it was more appropriate to push them down to the bubble rather than bring Colorado State up to the land of locks.
The top four bubble teams are hard to differentiate. Beyond those four, Nevada has five Quad 1 wins but played a poor non-conference schedule. That said, they defeated TCU in the non-conference and have wins over Utah State (road), San Diego State, and UNLV (road) during their 6-1 stretch.
New Mexico has alternated losses and wins since their five-game winning streak. Their most recent loss (home against Air Force) falls into Quad 4, and that is problematic. That said, they swept Nevada and won singular games against Colorado State and San Diego State. I still think they are safe – just not “lock them in” safe.
UNLV winning the regular-season conference title would be a fun story. The Rebels are 8-1 in their last nine games with wins over New Mexico (road) and Colorado State.
Essentially, everyone except for UNLV is challenging the committee to leave any of them out of the field. It’s that tight. I don’t think any conference in college basketball is better at playing the “Quad 1” system to their advantage.
Pac-12
In:
Arizona [21-6 (12-4); Quad 1: 7-3; KenPom: 4; NET: 4]
Washington State [21-7 (12-5); Quad 1: 5-3; KenPom: 37; NET: 36]
Bubble:
Colorado [18-9 (9-7); Quad 1: 1-5; KenPom: 30; NET: 34]
Utah [16-11 (7-9); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 51; NET: 54]
Oregon [18-9 (10-6); Quad 1: 2-4; KenPom: 60; NET: 63]
It looked like Washington State was going to steal the conference title from Arizona, but Arizona State had other ideas. The Cougars are 13-1 at home and their remaining games are all home games. Even with the loss to Arizona State and subsequent drop in the NET, I am keeping them in…barely.
Yes, I get the ridiculousness in having Colorado on the bubble while locking in Washington State. The major issue for me is the 1-5 Quad 1 record. Furthermore, while Washington State swept Arizona, Colorado lost both games by a combined 67 points. Bottom line? Not a horrible resume, but I think I can justify Washington State as “In” while leaving Colorado “Out” for now.
Utah is 2-7 on the road, with their big win being over St. Mary’s. The Utes own a neutral-court win over Wake Forest but are 2-6 in their last eight games
Oregon‘s resume is blah. Their loss at California should have been the final nail, but the Ducks still play Arizona (road), Colorado, and Utah.
SEC
In:
Tennessee [21-6 (11-3), Quad 1: 4-5; KenPom: 6; NET: 5]
Alabama [19-8 (11-3); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 7; NET: 6]
Auburn [21-6 (10-4); Quad 1: 1-6; KenPom: 5; NET: 7]
Kentucky [19-8 (9-5); Quad 1: 5-5; KenPom: 17; NET: 19]
Bubble:
Mississippi State [19-8 (8-6); Quad 1: 3-5; KenPom: 28; NET: 28]
Florida [19-8 (9-5); Quad 1: 4-7; KenPom: 27; NET: 31]
South Carolina [22-5 (10-4); Quad 1: 3-3; KenPom: 48; NET: 48]
Texas A&M [15-12 (6-8); Quad 1: 5-6; KenPom: 57; NET: 58]
Ole Miss [19-8 (6-8); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 74; NET: 75]
The race to the finish here is fun. I am happy that Kentucky justified my lock by winning three of their last four games (Ole Miss, Auburn (road), and Alabama).
Mississippi State turned on the jets to differentiate themselves from the crowd. Their five straight wins aren’t huge (struggling Ole Miss is the only quality-ish win). All this said, here’s the big test to end the season: Kentucky, Auburn (road), Texas A&M (road), and South Carolina.
Florida took a minor hit in the NET. That said, the Gators lost to Alabama in overtime before taking care of business against Vanderbilt. As long as they avoid losing to Missouri this week, they should be OK.
South Carolina needed a decent win and got it (at Ole Miss). Ole Miss’ struggles hold that win down. Can they follow that up with a road win over Texas A&M?
Texas A&M has five Quad 1 wins and four Quadrant 3 losses. A 4-game losing streak heading into their game with South Carolina isn’t ideal and they finish their season with games against Mississippi State and Ole Miss (road). A 1-3 finish puts them at 16-15 (7-11). The problem is that it possible that is exactly where they will be.
Ole Miss is destroyed. They haven’t defeated a quality opponent in February (Missouri only) but have a shot at a big win over Alabama on 2/28.
Southland
Bubble:
McNeese [24-3 (13-1); Quad 1: 0-0; KenPom: 65; NET: 52]
Simply keep avoiding the bad losses. Better yet, just make life easy on yourselves and win the conference tournament.
Sun Belt
Bubble:
James Madison [26-3 (13-3); Quad 1: 1-1; KenPom: 61; NET: 50]
The combined record of their opponents during their 8-game winning streak isn’t impressive (beyond Akron’s). Their schedule eased up greatly down the stretch and the Dukes took care of it. Appalachian State (23-5, 14-2) is their big nemesis – will they meet up again in the title game?
West Coast
In:
St. Mary’s [23-6 (14-0); Quad 1: 4-2; KenPom: 23; NET: 15]
Bubble:
Gonzaga [22-6 (12-2); Quad 1: 1-5; KenPom: 21; NET: 21]
San Francisco [22-7 (11-3); Quad 1: 0-5; KenPom: 63; NET: 57]
Gonzaga passed their mild test by beating Santa Clara by 13. Their fate rests in their final two games: On the road against San Francisco and St. Mary’s.
San Francisco‘s fate may already be sealed. If a few coin flips went their way, they would be sitting on a few Quad 1 wins, at least. As is, they probably need to get to the conference title game to have any shot at at-large consideration, but that is even a stretch.
WAC
Bubble:
Grand Canyon [24-4 (14-3); Quad 1: 1-1; KenPom: 68; NET: 59]
I will leave Grand Canyon on the list since I don’t have anything better to do. Obviously, big conference schools get credit if they lose close road games against good competition. In the WAC, you can’t go on the road and lose to Abilene Christian (NET: 254). It’s a dagger that is almost impossible to overcome.