A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games on Thursday, February 22.
NET, not my bubble preference is how I rank the teams. Essentially, I have to rank by something, and using the NCAA’s tool seems like a good start.
ACC
In:
North Carolina [20-6 (12-3), Quad 1: 6-4; KenPom: 10; NET: 10]
Duke [21-5 (12-3), Quad 1: 6-2; KenPom: 8; NET: 12]
Bubble:
Clemson [18-8 (8-7); Quad 1: 4-3; KenPom: 24; NET: 25]
Wake Forest [17-9 (9-6); Quad 1: 1-5; KenPom: 20; NET: 27]
Virginia [20-7 (11-5); Quad 1: 3-3; KenPom: 65; NET: 47]
Virginia Tech [15-11 (7-8); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 50; NET: 51]
Pittsburgh [17-9 (8-7); Quad 1: 3-5; KenPom: 61; NET: 57]
North Carolina and Duke are heading for a collision course for the regular-season title. From a tournament perspective, a #2 seed is still in play. The Blue Devils’ NET is improving (+5 since Sunday).
Clemson is 90% safe. The home loss to North Carolina State delayed their ascension to lock status, but they didn’t let that snowball on the road against Georgia Tech. The Tigers are done with North Carolina/Duke (1-2, with one of the losses a 1-point loss at Duke) so they simply need to keep their nose clean.
Wake Forest is an example of why one doesn’t just look at NET to declare a team in or out. By most measures, Clemson’s resume outshines theirs. So, why are they so close? Clemson has two Quad 3 losses while Wake Forest has zero Quad 3/4 losses. A big home game against Duke on Saturday offers them a Quad 1 opportunity.
Virginia? One can excuse most road losses. It isn’t easy to win on the road, which is why a quality road win is held in such high esteem. However, a late-season loss to Virginia Tech by 34 points doesn’t resonate well. Something to consider: Every Virginia road loss is by double digits (23, 22, 16, 19, 11, 34). On top of that, they lost to Wisconsin by 24 on a neutral court (counteracted by a three-point win over Florida). In other words, their resume isn’t necessarily bad, but red flags are abundant.
Virginia Tech needed that win over Virginia. The Hokies have one road win (North Carolina State) and have two coming up: A huge bubble game against Pitt and Syracuse.
Pittsburgh has two big road wins (Duke, Virginia) but owns one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country with no quality wins (their best non-conference win was a Quad 3 victory over West Virginia). We’ve seen better teams get dinged by the committee.
American Athletic
Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [21-6 (11-3); Quad 1: 2-1; KenPom: 34; NET: 33]
SMU [18-8 (10-4); Quad 1: 0-3; KenPom: 40; NET: 40]
South Florida [20-5 (13-1); Quad 1: 0-0; KenPom: 98; NET: 93]
South Florida has a 2-game lead with one game left against SMU and zero games left with Florida Atlantic. This would be a shocking conference title.
Tournament decision-makers encourage teams to play tough schedules. Florida Atlantic did just that, beating Butler, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech and Arizona in non-conference play while losing to Illinois by nine. Their resume takes a hit thanks to a weird loss to Bryant and a deadly loss to Florida-Gulf Coast. As terrible as that loss is, the Owls should feel comfortable.
SMU needs to do something in Quad 1. After losing at Florida Atlantic on Thursday night, their opportunities the rest of the regular season = 0. It isn’t like their resume is boosted in Quad 2, as they are only 2-3 in those games.
South Florida‘s win over FAU has fallen into a strong Quad 2 victory instead of a Quad 1. It could flip back the other way, so the game doesn’t matter too much. What does hurt? Losses to Maine and Central Michigan.I am intrigued to know what the committee would do if they win out, only to lose in the conference tournament finals (or even semi-finals).
Atlantic 10
Bubble:
Dayton [21-5 (11-3), Quad 1: 3-4; KenPom: 28; NET: 19]
No team hanging around the Top 20 in the NET is going to miss the tournament. Losing on the road to George Mason takes them out of first place in the A-10, but they don’t need a conference title to be a tournament team.
Richmond (NET: 70) and Loyola-Chicago (6 straight wins; NET: 99) are tied atop the conference but aren’t at-large threats at this time.
Big 12
In:
Houston [23-3 (10-3), Quad 1: 9-3; KenPom: 1; NET: 1]
Iowa State [20-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 6-5; KenPom: 9; NET: 8]
BYU [19-7 (7-6), Quad 1: 4-5; KenPom: 15; NET: 11]
Baylor [18-7 (8-5); Quad 1: 6-5; KenPom: 14; NET: 14]
Kansas [20-6 (8-5); Quad 1: 6-4; KenPom: 17; NET: 17]
Bubble
Texas Tech [19-7 (8-5); Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 25; NET: 29]
TCU [18-8 (7-6); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 32; NET: 37]
Texas [17-9 (6-7); Quad 1: 4-7; KenPom: 33; NET: 38]
Oklahoma [18-8 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 36; NET: 39]
Cincinnati [16-10 (5-8); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 41; NET: 45]
The possibility of ten NCAA Tournament teams still exists in the Big 12. I can’t imagine how they would fall under nine, barring a major collapse.
Texas Tech has two road wins, but they are quality (Oklahoma, Texas). Their bad non-conference schedule (and lack of a big non-conference win) is what holds them back.
Look at TCU/Texas/Oklahoma. How do you differentiate between those profiles? Texas has the extra Quad 1 win, and TCU has the extra in-conference win. Texas has a Quad 3 loss while TCU and Oklahoma have identical records in all four quadrants. None of the three played strong non-conference schedules, though TCU’s rank (325th) is atrocious. At the moment, it’s meaningless as it only impacts the seed lines.
Cincinnati is a touch below those three teams. Their non-conference schedule wasn’t great and they didn’t beat either of the two good teams on it (Xavier/Dayton). The Bearcats are on a 4-8 freefall and need to fix that if they want to feel safe.
Big East
In:
UConn [24-3 (14-2); Quad 1: 9-3; KenPom: 3; NET: 4]
Creighton [20-7 (11-5); Quad 1: 6-4; KenPom: 11; NET: 9]
Marquette [19-6 (10-4); Quad 1: 6-5; KenPom: 13; NET: 13]
Bubble:
Villanova [15-11 (8-7); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 31; NET: 34]
Saint John’s [15-12 (7-9); Quad 1: 2-9; KenPom: 45; NET: 50]
Providence [18-9 (9-7); Quad 1: 5-6; KenPom: 54; NET: 56]
Xavier [13-13 (7-8); Quad 1: 2-9; KenPom: 49; NET: 61]
Butler [16-11 (7-9); Quad 1: 4-10; KenPom: 57; NET: 62]
Seton Hall [17-9 (10-5); Quad 1: 5-5; KenPom: 60; NET: 65]
Should UConn fear dropping to a #2 line because their NET is 4? Short answer: No. The NET is an important tool in the shed. But one has to look at the overall resume. The Huskies are closer to the #1 overall seed than a #2 seed. That said, the middle of the Big East being “meh” this season is not helping the “Big 3” in the computer rankings.
Villanova would be locked in if not for that 0-3 record in the Big 5 Classic, a Philadelphia-area tournament the Wildcats typically dominate. However, they went 3-0 in the Battle 4 Atlantis, defeating Texas Tech and North Carolina along the way. After a 5-game conference losing streak, they are on a minor 4-1 run heading into their game at UConn.
Saint John’s is an example of the NET not always telling a full story. The Red Storm’s only two wins over the last several weeks have come against DePaul and Georgetown, as their last win of consequence was nearly a month ago against Villanova. If a team was safely in the tournament, having Georgetown and DePaul in two of their final four games would be a blessing. As is, those games are toss-outs and the only thing that matters is what they do against Creighton and Butler (road).
Providence has five Quad 1 wins, which will weigh heavily in the board room. Their resume may need a final boost and three of their final four games offer that opportunity (Marquette (road), Villanova, UConn)
Xavier is teetering on extinction. Resume-wise, they are not all that dissimilar from St. John’s. However, 13-13 won’t cut it. The Musketeers have both games against Marquette awaiting.
Butler is legitimately about two things: The road wins over Marquette and Creighton + those 14 Quad 1 games. Well, three things if you factor in the lack of bad losses (8-0 in Quad 3/4). Their road game against Seton Hall on Saturday has major bubble implications.
Seton Hall has languished on the bottom of the bubble, according to the NET. In reality, those five Quad 1 wins carry a lot of weight. The Pirates are in the middle of a six-game gauntlet, where they are 2-0 with games against Butler, Creighton (road), UConn (road), and Villanova upcoming. Win one of those games (and beat DePaul) and they are looking at 19-12 (12-8) heading into the conference tournament. That’s solid work.
Big Ten
In:
Purdue [24-3 (13-3); Quad 1: 9-3; KenPom: 3; NET: 2]
Illinois [19-7 (10-5); Quad 1: 4-5; KenPom: 12; NET: 16]
Wisconsin [18-9 (10-6); Quad 1: 7-6; KenPom: 21; NET: 21]
Michigan State [17-10 (9-7); Quad 1: 3-8; KenPom: 16; NET: 23]
Bubble:
Nebraska [19-8 (9-7); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 38; NET: 43]
Northwestern [19-8 (10-6); Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 44; NET: 55]
Iowa [16-11 (8-8); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 51; NET: 63]
Purdue is back in the running for the top overall seed, after UConn’s loss. Don’t forget that the Boilermakers played arguably the best non-conference schedule in the country, something that will weigh heavily in the committee’s decision.
Nebraska is a good story that needs to put the finishing touches as a clean resume (12-0 in Quad 3/4) that includes wins over Purdue and Wisconsin. The rest of their schedule is manageable, leaving the Big Ten Tournament as the ultimate decider.
Northwestern has a little bit of everything in its profile. The non-conference schedule was bad, with a loss to Chicago State equalized by a win over Dayton. A road win over Maryland on Wednesday would be a decent resume-booster.
Iowa won’t let me get rid of them, as they earned back-to-back wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State (road). The Hawkeyes have both games with Illinois remaining + a road game against Northwestern. A 2-1 record will raise their profile significantly.
Minnesota is on the bubble’s bubble – they need a miracle but have three road games (Nebraska, Illinois, Northwestern) to help make that miracle happen.
Ivy League
Bubble:
Princeton [19-3 (7-2); Quad 1: 0-0; KenPom: 69; NET: 54]
Nothing has changed here. Their neutral court win over Rutgers is unlikely to reach Quad 1 status, which would likely help but not guarantee a thing. They are a long shot if a conference tournament victory isn’t secured.
Missouri Valley
Bubble:
Indiana State [23-5 (14-3); Quad 1: 1-3; KenPom: 46; NET: 32]
Drake [23-5 (14-3); Quad 1: 2-1; KenPom: 48; NET: 44]
It is a fight to the finish for these two teams. If they both win their remaining regular-season games and get to the conference championship, a decent chance that both will get into the bracket. The biggest hurdle remaining for Drake is a home game against Bradley. The biggest hurdle for Indiana State is themselves, as they can’t afford another bad loss.
Mountain West
In:
San Diego State [20-7 (9-5); Quad 1: 4-7; KenPom: 18; NET: 18]
New Mexico [21-6 (9-5); Quad 1: 3-3; KenPom: 26; NET: 20]
Bubble:
Colorado State [20-7 (8-6); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 29; NET: 26]
Utah State [22-5 (10-4); Quad 1: 3-4; KenPom: 39; NET: 31]
Boise State [18-8 (9-4); Quad 1: 5-4; KenPom: 43; NET: 35]
Nevada [21-6 (8-5); Quad 1: 5-4; KenPom: 42; NET: 42]
UNLV [15-10 (8-5); Quad 1: 4-3; KenPom: 84; NET: 87]
It is time for me to lock in New Mexico. The Lobos have only one big road win (Nevada), but it is hard to imagine them being left out of the field.
Colorado State hasn’t done much wrong this season. They knocked off Creighton (by 21) and Colorado while losing by three to St. Mary’s. The Rams’ issue is a 3-6 road mark without a quality win.
Utah State is atop the conference by a half-game with three “easy” games on the docket before a season-ending home game against New Mexico. Their 10-4 record in road/neutral games is impressive. with wins over San Francisco, UNLV, and New Mexico mixed in.
Boise State‘s neutral court loss to Washington State keeps earning them points, especially since it was only a 5-point deficit. The Broncos end their campaign with games against New Mexico, Nevada, and San Diego State (road). Their resume promised to be a good one.
Nevada is 5-1 in their last six games, including wins over Utah State (road) and San Diego State. Their only loss was a one-point defeat by New Mexico.
If UNLV goes 5-0 down the stretch (wins over Colorado State, San Diego State, and Nevada), maybe they are in the discussion. After all, that would be a 20-10 record with seven Quad 1 wins. Easier said than done.
Pac-12
In:
Arizona [20-6 (11-4); Quad 1: 7-3; KenPom: 4; NET: 3]
Washington State [21-6 (12-4); Quad 1: 5-3; KenPom: 30; NET: 28]
Bubble:
Colorado [17-9 (8-7); Quad 1: 2-5; KenPom: 37; NET: 41]
Utah [16-10 (7-8); Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 47; NET: 46]
Oregon [18-8 (10-5); Quad 1: 2-5; KenPom: 56; NET: 59]
Washington State completed a sweep against Arizona on Thursday night, giving them a half-game lead with the tiebreaker. The Huskies are 11-1 in their last 12 games, as they turned a blah early-season resume into a lock before the calendar turns to March. The Cougars will be a dangerous team in the NCAA Tournament.
Colorado is a beneficiary of Washington State’s run, as their home conquest of the Cougars has risen to Quad 1. The Buffaloes must get out of their 1-4 rut, however.
Like Colorado, Utah is struggling lately (2-5). If Pac-10 bubble games are your pleasure, Utah travels to Colorado on Saturday.
Oregon needs to sweep their final five games, including at Arizona.
Washington‘s NET (69) is on the edge of bubble consideration, but it is tied heavily into their non-conference schedule and not so much into quality wins (1-6 in Quad 1). Their two remaining road games (Arizona and Washington State) could earn them a look if they somehow win them.
SEC
In:
Alabama [19-7 (11-2); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 6; NET: 5]
Tennessee [20-6 (10-3), Quad 1: 5-5; KenPom: 7; NET: 6]
Auburn [20-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 2-5; KenPom: 5; NET: 7]
Kentucky [18-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 23; NET: 24]
Bubble:
Florida [18-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 2-8; KenPom: 27; NET: 30]
Mississippi State [18-8 (7-6); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 35; NET: 36]
Texas A&M [15-11 (6-7); Quad 1: 6-5; KenPom: 52; NET: 49]
South Carolina [21-5 (9-4); Quad 1: 2-3; KenPom: 55; NET: 58]
Ole Miss [19-7 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 70; NET: 68]
Kentucky may have me questioning my “lock” choice, but I will keep them there. As for the other locks, I don’t know if any of them can sneak into a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but all of them are in the #2 seed conversation.
Florida played one of the most entertaining games of the season, a 98-93 overtime loss at Alabama. Close losses against good teams dot their resume and they have zero losses outside Quad 1. It is a “different” resume, but the formula works.
Mississippi State has followed up a 3-6 stretch with four straight wins, the biggest being a home conquest of Mississippi. If the Bulldogs stretch that streak to nine, it will mean they added wins over Kentucky Auburn (road), Texas A&M (road), and South Carolina.
Texas A&M is going in the opposite direction. The Aggies have three straight losses, two against non-tournament teams (Vanderbilt, Arkansas (home)). They can lean on those six Quad 1 wins, but they must stop the bleeding. That will be tough on Saturday (at Tennessee).
South Carolina has been off all week, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Their next two games are on the road (Ole Miss, Texas A&M). If the Gamecocks lose both, their resume will go from rock solid a few weeks ago to questionable.
Ole Miss needs that win as much as South Carolina does. The Rebels were one of the last unbeaten teams this season, but conference play has eaten them up. They are 14-1 at home and will need to hold serve against South Carolina and Alabama next.
Southland
Bubble:
McNeese [23-3 (12-1); Quad 1: 1-0; KenPom: 64; NET: 53]
I have nothing to add to what I wrote last time:
Three of their final five opponents have NET rankings over 300. Their NET will take a small hit if they win these games. If they lose any of them? Good night.
Sun Belt
Bubble:
James Madison [25-3 (12-3); Quad 1: 1-1; KenPom: 58; NET: 48]
My advice? Keep comparing their resume to those of McNeese, San Francisco, Grand Canyon, Indiana State, and Drake amongst the mid-major hopefuls. Only 1-2 may get in (unless they win the conference tournaments).
West Coast
In:
St. Mary’s [22-6 (13-0); Quad 1: 4-2; KenPom: 22; NET: 15]
Bubble:
Gonzaga [21-6 (11-2); Quad 1: 1-5; KenPom: 19; NET: 22]
San Francisco [21-7 (10-3); Quad 1: 0-5; KenPom: 66; NET: 60]
Gonzaga hit an easy part of the schedule and took care of business convincingly. However, destroying Loyola Marymount, Pacific, and Portland isn’t going to wow anyone (as evidenced by their solid footing on the bubble). The Bulldogs can’t lose at home against a tricky Santa Clara squad. The road game against St. Mary’s to close the regular season is huge for their chances.
San Francisco lost by four to St. Mary’s on Tuesday. Add that to their annoying losses to Boise State (5 points), Grand Canyon (4 points), Utah State (1 point), and Gonzaga (5 points). All those games were either on a neutral court or the road (Gonzaga). As of now, they will get two more cracks at Gonzaga (home on 2/29 and a potential semi-final matchup in the conference tournament)
WAC
Bubble:
Grand Canyon [24-3 (14-2); Quad 1: 1-0; KenPom: 62; NET: 52]
Sometimes, you run into a hot team and lose. That is what happened to Grand Canyon on Thursday night, as they lost to Tarleton State on the road. The Texans have seven straight wins to place themselves just a game and a half behind Grand Canyon.
As for Grand Canyon, does a second conference loss destroy their chances? It certainly doesn’t help, but in-conference games are always tough to navigate. The Lopes have lost to both teams right behind them in the standings (Seattle is the other). They have made their resume more difficult to argue for, but they are not out of the running.