A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games of Sunday, 2/18
ACC
In:
North Carolina [20-6 (12-3), Quad 1: 5-4; KenPom: 10; NET: 9]
Duke [20-5 (11-3), Quad 1: 5-2; KenPom: 11; NET: 17]
Bubble:
Clemson [17-8 (7-7); Quad 1: 4-3; KenPom: 30; NET: 27]
Wake Forest [16-9 (8-6); Quad 1: 1-5; KenPom: 26; NET: 40]
Virginia [20-6 (11-4); Quad 1: 2-2; KenPom: 53; NET: 41]
Pittsburgh [17-8 (8-6); Quad 1: 2-4; KenPom: 51; NET: 47]
Virginia Tech [14-11 (6-8); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 64; NET: 62]
The home loss to North Carolina State delays Clemson‘s ascension to locked status, but the Tigers should be fine.
Wake Forest finally earned a Quad 1 win – from a game that was played in November. Their home conquest of Florida now qualifies.
Virginia would appear to be in great shape, given that they are in the conference title race. Perhaps the computers hate 49-47 wins as well?
Pittsburgh has won five straight and has a 7-3 road/neutral record. The Panthers went from an also-ran to a legit contender once they beat Duke at Cameron and they have kept that momentum going (6-1 since that game)
Virginia Tech has three Quad 1 wins but is 1-4 in their last five games. The Boise State/Iowa State wins can only carry you so far.
American Athletic
In:
None.
Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [20-6 (10-3); Quad 1: 2-1; KenPom: 34; NET: 29]
SMU [18-7 (10-3); Quad 1: 0-2; KenPom: 39; NET: 34]
South Florida [19-5 (12-1); Quad 1: 1-0; KenPom: 100; NET: 92]
Florida Atlantic showed their grit in their comeback attempt against South Florida but came up short. Their resume is still rock solid.
SMU mauled Memphis. Their rise is impressive, but the lack of a Quad 1 win (and only two Quad 2 wins) will hold them back.
South Florida has 11 straight wins. Their losses to Central Michigan, Maine, Hofstra, and UMass are what crush their NET.
Memphis (and North Texas for that matter) have better NET rankings than South Florida, but it is easier for me to justify South Florida for the time being.
Atlantic 10
Bubble:
Dayton [21-4 (11-2), Quad 1: 2-4; KenPom: 24; NET: 19]
Loyola-Chicago (11-2) and Richmond (10-2) won’t let Dayton get away, but the Flyers are still the lone tournament at-large hopeful from this league. The Flyers travel to Loyola-Chicago on March 1st.
Big 12
In:
Houston [22-3 (9-3), Quad 1: 8-3; KenPom: 1; NET: 1]
Iowa State [20-5 (9-3); Quad 1: 6-4; KenPom: 9; NET: 8]
BYU [18-7 (6-6), Quad 1: 3-5; KenPom: 16; NET: 10]
Baylor [18-6 (8-4); Quad 1: 6-4; KenPom: 12; NET: 11]
Kansas [20-6 (8-5); Quad 1: 6-4; KenPom: 17; NET: 16]
Bubble:
Texas Tech [18-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 23; NET: 26]
Texas [16-9 (5-7); Quad 1: 4-7; KenPom: 29; NET: 33]
TCU [18-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 32; NET: 36]
Cincinnati [16-9 (5-7); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 36; NET: 37]
Oklahoma [18-8 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 37; NET: 39]
UCF [13-11 (4-8); Quad 1: 2-6; KenPom: 69; NET: 67]
Kansas State [15-9 (5-6); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 77]
Texas Tech would be safely in if they played better teams in the non-conference. As is, the Red Raiders have road wins over Oklahoma and Texas alongside their home win over Kansas.
Texas has three solid in-conference road wins to go along with their home win over Baylor. The Longhorns still have road games against Kansas, Texas Tech, and Baylor.
TCU not only has that 3-OT road win over Baylor. The Horned Frogs lost road games to Kansas by two and Cincinnati by four in overtime. You don’t always have to win for the committee to be impressed.
Cincinnati added UCF to its road ledger which includes Texas Tech and BYU. Quality road wins are gold.
Oklahoma is in a 5-7 rut after their 13-1 start. The Big 12 schedule doesn’t make it easy to get out of such ruts.
UCF is 1-6 on the road (Texas) and 1-5 in their last six games. The fork is getting closer to the plate.
Kansas State is 1-6 in their last seven games If the fork is closing in on UCF, it has already penetrated the skin on Kansas State.
Big East
In:
UConn [24-2 (14-1); Quad 1: 9-2; KenPom: 2; NET: 4]
Creighton [19-7 (10-5); Quad 1: 5-4; KenPom: 13; NET: 13]
Marquette [19-6 (10-4); Quad 1: 6-5; KenPom: 14; NET: 14]
Bubble:
Villanova [14-11 (7-7); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 31; NET: 35]
Saint John’s [14-12 (6-9); Quad 1: 2-9; KenPom: 42; NET: 51]
Xavier [13-12 (7-7); Quad 1: 2-9; KenPom: 44; NET: 54]
Butler [16-10 (7-8); Quad 1: 4-9; KenPom: 55; NET: 57]
Providence [17-9 (8-7); Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 56; NET: 59]
Seton Hall [17-9 (10-5); Quad 1: 5-5; KenPom: 59; NET: 63]
The Big East has to be disappointed in their overall performance. The conference is ranked 5th according to NET, with only the Pac-12 below them amongst the power conferences.
Villanova needs wins, no matter who they are against. They aren’t getting into the tournament, however, based on a gaudy record. The Wildcats have to win some games against quality opponents down the stretch.
Saint John’s is the second-highest team on the Big East bubble according to the NET, but is anyone taking them seriously? The only team they have defeated since January 24th is DePaul.
Xavier’s NET is OK, and they had a strong non-conference schedule. However, they might be under .500 soon.
Butler will send the committee videos of their road wins over Marquette and Creighton to remind the committee what they are capable of. However, both teams bounced back to beat Butler on their home court.
Providence is 2-6 on the road (DePaul, Seton Hall). Their next two games are road games against Xavier and Marquette.
Seton Hall‘s NET is hurt by losses to USC and Rutgers. However, they are 5-4 on the road, have five Quad 1 wins, and swept St. John’s. I think their NET doesn’t tell the full story of who they are.
Big Ten
In:
Purdue [23-3 (12-3); Quad 1: 9-3; KenPom: 3; NET: 2]
Illinois [19-6 (10-4); Quad 1: 4-5; KenPom: 8; NET: 12]
Michigan State [17-9 (9-6); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 15; NET: 20]
Wisconsin [17-9 (9-6); Quad 1: 6-6; KenPom: 19; NET: 21]
Bubble:
Nebraska [18-8 (8-7); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 40; NET: 49]
Northwestern [18-8 (9-6); Quad 1: 4-5; KenPom: 47; NET: 56]
Iowa [15-11 (7-8); Quad 1: 1-7; KenPom: 57; NET: 67]
Michigan State is now locked in.
Nebraska is terrible on the road. The Cornhuskers have stacked wins, but have work to do (the upcoming road game against Ohio State is huge)
Northwestern has wins over Dayton, Purdue, Michigan State, and Illinois. How did this team lose to Chicago State (Quad 4)??
Iowa re-enters my bubble after beating Wisconsin. Now comes the make-or-break week: Games at Michigan State and Illinois.
For now, I cannot justify adding Ohio State, as they are second-to-last in the conference. We will revisit if they build off the Purdue win.
Ivy League
Bubble:
Princeton [19-3 (7-2); Quad 1: 0-0; KenPom: 66; NET: 53]
I figured I would take a look at Princeton today. I don’t see their resume as more compelling than the likes of McNeese, James Madison, or Grand Canyon. I think the Tigers could have afforded one conference loss heading into the conference tournament. Two was one too many. We’ll keep them here, for now.
Missouri Valley
Bubble:
Indiana State [22-5 (13-3); Quad 1: 1-3; KenPom: 49; NET: 32]
Drake [22-5 (13-3); Quad 1: 2-1; KenPom: 48; NET: 46]
Indiana State followed up their brutal loss to Illinois State with a road loss to Southern Illinois. Their final four regular-season games are must-wins if they want a shot at an at-large.
Drake has won four in a row to tie at the top of the conference. The Bulldogs have a 19-point neutral court win over Nevada as their biggest feather.
Mountain West
In:
San Diego State [20-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 5-6; KenPom: 18; NET: 18]
Bubble:
New Mexico [20-6 (8-5); Quad 1: 3-3; KenPom: 25; NET: 24]
Colorado State [20-6 (8-5); Quad 1: 4-5; KenPom: 28; NET: 25]
Utah State [21-5 (9-4); Quad 1: 2-4; KenPom: 41; NET: 30]
Boise State [17-8 (8-4); Quad 1: 5-5; KenPom: 50; NET: 43]
Nevada [20-6 (7-5); Quad 1: 5-4; KenPom: 45; NET: 44]
UNLV [14-10 (7-5); Quad 1: 4-4; KenPom: 94; NET: 94]
At this point, New Mexico and Colorado State are hardly perfect but are close to locking in.
Utah State is in good shape, though they can use a few more Quad 1 wins. The Aggies can’t allow their recent 20-point loss to Colorado State to snowball.
Boise State has five Quad 1 wins and the committee is going to have a tough time ignoring that. The Bronocs are 7-7 in Quad 1/Quad 2 They are in the middle of a 4-game stretch against easier opponents. It would serve them well to go 4-0.
Nevada also has five Quad 1 wins. and is 4-1 in their last five games (the one loss was by a point against New Mexico). If they stay clean, they should make it.
UNLV has little chance. The Rebels have three Quad 1 games remaining, two of which are at home. If they win all three to end the season 7-4 in Quad 1, they need to be looked at closely. Good luck with that.
Pac-12
In:
Arizona [20-5 (11-3); Quad 1: 7-3; KenPom: 4; NET: 3]
Bubble:
Washington State [20-6 (11-4); Quad 1: 4-3; KenPom: 33; NET: 31]
Colorado [17-9 (8-7); Quad 1: 1-5; KenPom: 38; NET: 42]
Utah [16-10 (7-8); Quad 1: 3-5; KenPom: 46; NET: 50]
Oregon [17-8 (9-5); Quad 1: 2-4; KenPom: 61; NET: 61]
Washington State came out of nowhere and is on the brink of a tournament clinch. They would be on a 12-game winning streak if not for a weird loss to Cal on 1/20.
Colorado is hanging on, thanks to a 6-4 Quad 2 record and zero bad losses. It is too bad, for their sake, that the 27-point mauling of Miami doesn’t carry more weight as Miami has underperformed.
Utah needed that 1-point road win over a surging UCLA squad on Sunday. A bubblicious matchup at Colorado comes on Saturday.
Oregon has a couple of “easy” road games next (both in California) before ending their season with Arizona/Colorado/Utah. When your resume has holes, you often need miracles.
SEC
In:
Alabama [18-7 (10-2); Quad 1: 2-6; KenPom: 6; NET: 5]
Tennessee [19-6 (9-3), Quad 1: 5-5; KenPom: 5; NET: 6]
Auburn [20-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 2-5; KenPom: 7; NET: 7]
Kentucky [18-7 (8-4); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 21; NET: 22]
Bubble:
Florida [18-7 (8-4); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 27; NET: 28]
Mississippi State [17-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 35; NET: 38]
Texas A&M [15-10 (6-6); Quad 1: 6-5; KenPom: 43; NET: 45]
South Carolina [21-5 (9-4); Quad 1: 3-3; KenPom: 54; NET: 58]
Ole Miss [19-6 (6-6); Quad 1: 3-5; KenPom: 67; NET: 65]
Let’s not fool ourselves: Kentucky is an NCAA Tournament squad.
Florida is 7-1 in their last eight games. The stretch includes wins over Mississippi State, Auburn, and Kentucky. Can they beat Alabama (road) on Wednesday?
Mississippi State is hurt by a 1-6 road record (the only win is over Missouri). Their final six games are brutal (when you consider LSU is a road game). Good luck.
Texas A&M has six Quad 1 wins. SIX! Texas A&M has four Quad 3 losses. FOUR!
South Carolina surprisingly needs to do more despite a 21-5 (9-4) record in a strong conference. Their neutral court wins over Virginia Tech and Grand Canyon should elevate them somewhat, but their final five games include four road contests against other NCAA hopefuls. The Gamecocks may be nervous on Selection Sunday.
Speaking of nerves, Ole Miss has two big bubble games this week: Mississippi State (road) and South Carolina. Their lack of bad losses (14-0 in Quad 3/Quad 4) is a blessing (committee likes clean resumes!) and a curse (that’s a lot of Quad 3/4 games). The Rebels need a few more quality wins.
Southland
Bubble:
McNeese [23-3 (12-1); Quad 1: 1-0; KenPom: 63; NET: 52]
McNeese’s NET has soared (+15 since 2/11), placing them in the same range as Utah, St. John’s, Princeton, Xavier, James Madison, and Northwestern. Their non-conference SOS was solid (69th in the KenPom). All this adds up to to a school that should be taken seriously if they get to the conference title game and lose.
Sun Belt
Bubble:
James Madison [24-3 (11-3); Quad 1: 1-0; KenPom: 65; NET: 55]
McNeese and James Madison look like twins, but McNeese had (by far) the stronger non-conference slate. That said, James Madison has the better Quad 1 win (Michigan State vs. VCU). Also helping James Madison is that the Sun Belt is the 17th-ranked conference in the nation, while the Southland is 27th.
West Coast
In:
St. Mary’s [21-6 (12-0); Quad 1: 4-2; KenPom: 22; NET: 15]
Bubble:
Gonzaga [20-6 (10-2); Quad 1: 1-5; KenPom: 20; NET: 23]
San Francisco [21-6 (10-2); Quad 1: 0-5; KenPom: 68; NET: 60]
Gonzaga doesn’t earn many points for beating 6-22 Pacific They won’t earn many by beating 9-19 Portland., either. The key to their tournament lock (which isn’t too far off, to be honest) is a 3-game stretch against Santa Clara, San Francisco, and St. Mary’s to close out their season. After that, a date with San Francisco again could await in the conference tournament semi-finals.
San Francisco has two more chances at a Quad 1 win (St. Mary’s (road) and Gonzaga). It’s hard to justify them now, but winning those games and getting to the conference championship would make it interesting.
WAC
Bubble:
Grand Canyon [24-2 (14-1); Quad 1: 1-0; KenPom: 58; NET: 48]
Lumped with McNeese and James Madison, Grand Canyon plays in the 14th-ranked conference. Their Quad 1 win was over San Diego State. Both the KenPom and the NET ranks them better than the other two, and it is hard to disagree with that.