A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games of Friday, 2/16
ACC
In:
North Carolina [19-6 (11-3), Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 11]
Duke [19-5 (10-3), Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 17]
Bubble:
Clemson [17-7 (7-6); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 25]
Wake Forest [16-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 0-4; NET: 37]
Virginia [19-6 (10-4); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 41]
Pittsburgh [16-8 (7-6); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 54]
Virginia Tech [14-10 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 61]
Clemson is close to lock status and is closer to being a Sweet 16 seed than to being on the outside looking in. Their remaining schedule includes zero games against North Carolina, Duke, or Virginia. The Tigers simply need to avoid a string of bad losses.
I can’t get around Wake Forest‘s lack of Quad 1 wins. At some point, you have to beat the best of the best, and the Demon Deacons have yet to do that. There are still opportunities remaining on their schedule.
Virginia is the only team that can spoil the North Carolina/Duke regular-season champion party. Their game against Wake Forest on Saturday has major bubble implications.
Pittsburgh‘s four-game surge (which includes wins over Wake Forest and Virginia (road)) places them squarely in the bubble picture. Don’t you dare lose your Saturday home game against Louisville. By the way, the Panthers are hurt by a non-conference schedule that was one of the worst in the country.
Virginia Tech is in trouble but there is a way out: Their next three games are against North Carolina (road), Virginia, and Pittsburgh (road).
American Athletic
In:
None.
Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [20-5 (10-2); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 29]
SMU [17-7 (9-3); Quad 1: 0-2; NET: 40]
Memphis [18-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 80]
Florida Atlantic has the tough schedule and the impressive wins (Butler, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, and Arizona all on neutral courts) to place them in a good spot. Their Quad 4 loss to Florida-Gulf Coast and Quad 3 loss to Bryant stand out, but would the committee leave them out for those losses alone? Seems doubtful.
SMU has a clean resume (13-1 in Quad 3/4) but hasn’t earned that coveted Quad 1 win. Furthermore, their Thursday game at Florida Atlantic is their last shot at earning one.
Memphis has a worse NET than North Texas (73) but is 5-5 in Quad 1/2 while North Texas is 1-7 in similar games. Regardless, neither team is likely at this point.
South Florida leads the conference race at 11-1 and has ten straight wins. They aren’t on my tournament bubble because of their #100 NET ranking. and two Quad 4 losses. The Bulls are kicking themselves over their 2-4 start.
Atlantic 10
Bubble:
Dayton [20-4 (10-2), Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 19]
Dayton hasn’t stumbled this year (12-0 in Quad 3/4) and has probably done enough to get into the tournament.
Big 12
In:
Houston [21-3 (8-3), Quad 1: 8-3; NET: 1]
Iowa State [19-5 (8-3); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 8]
BYU [18-6 (6-5), Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 9]
Baylor [17-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 12]
Kansas [19-6 (7-5); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 16]
Bubble:
Texas Tech [18-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 26]
Texas [16-8 (5-6); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 31]
Oklahoma [18-7 (6-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 33]
Cincinnati [15-9 (4-7); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 38]
TCU [17-7 (6-5); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 39]
UCF [13-10 (4-7); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 66]
Kansas State [15-9 (5-6); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 77]
A conference with 14 members having 12 teams with tournament aspirations is crazy. You can still draw a line underneath TCU above, but I can’t completely cross off UCF or Kansas State as of now.
Texas Tech scored a big win over Kansas on Monday. Can they follow that up with a win at Iowa State? Because, if they do, they likely lock themselves in.
Texas is 2-3 in his last five games with a crazy schedule upcoming (Houston (road), Kansas State, Kansas (road), Texas Tech (road)). A free-fall is not impossible.
Oklahoma is 3-4 in their last seven games though two of the wins are over Kansas State (road) and BYU. Three of their next four games are against Kansas, Iowa State (road), and Houston.
Cincinnati has a solid NET to fall back on. The Bearcats lost back-to-back home games to Houston and Iowa State and are 2-5 in their last seven games. How much relief do they feel over pulling out that early-season game against Howard in overtime? That would have been a bad Quad 4 loss.
TCU has back-to-back road games against Kansas State and Texas Tech coming up. The committee *will* hold their terrible non-conference schedule against them. There is no way around that. Hence, they have to continue to add on big conference wins to feel safe.
UCF has banked a handful of solid wins but the Knights are only 1-6 in the toughest of Quad 1 games.
Kansas State started a tough stretch of games with a 1-point loss to Texas Tech and a 4-point win over Baylor. Since then, they are 2-5 (though one of the wins was over Kansas). Beat TCU on Saturday and Texas on Tuesday and we can start talking again. Currently, they are behind UC-Irvine according to NET, so that tells you something.
Big East
In:
UConn [23-2 (13-1); Quad 1: 8-2; NET: 4]
Marquette [19-5 (10-3); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 10]
Creighton [18-7 (9-5); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 18]
Bubble:
Villanova [14-11 (7-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 34]
Saint John’s [14-11 (6-8); Quad 1: 2-9; NET: 46]
Butler [16-9 (7-7); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 49]
Xavier [13-12 (7-7); Quad 1: 2-9; NET: 55]
Providence [16-9 (7-7); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 56]
Seton Hall [16-9 (9-5); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 68]
The Big East has to be disappointed in their overall performance. The conference is ranked 5th according to NET, with only the Pac-12 below them amongst the power conferences.
Villanova is only 2-3 in Quad 3 games and is relying heavily on their Battle 4 Atlantis championship. Their remaining schedule offers up some opportunities, but they could easily enter the Big East Tournament with a 16-15 type of record.
Saint John‘s playing 11 Quad 1 games is impressive – but you must win more than two of them. The Red Storm have only two road wins this season, one of which was over West Virginia. Simply beating their remaining weak opponents (Georgetown twice and DePaul) won’t be nearly enough.
Butler has played in 12 Quad 1 games with four wins while not losing one game in Quad 3/4 (8-0). The committee will like the road wins over Marquette and Creighton. Can they complete a season sweep of Creighton on Sautrday?
Xavier has a decent NET but is in danger of falling to .500 or below heading into the Big East Tournament. That would knock them out, barring a strong showing in said tournament. I applaud tough schedules (7th best non-conference) but you have to stack wins.
Providence hasn’t played one Quad 3 game this season, which is more of an interesting tidbit than anything (the Friars are 9-0 in Quad 4). They have road games against Xavier and Marquette coming up.
Seton Hall has nine conference victories and four Quad 1 wins. If Rutgers keeps winning, their loss to the Scarlett Knights has the potential to rise into Quad 2 territory, which will help. What will help more? Surviving their upcoming gauntlet (Saint John’s (road), Butler, Creighton (road), UConn (road), and Villanova). Going 2-3 in those games + defeating DePaul will place them at 19-12 (12-8) heading into the conference tournament. Easier said than done, but I believe that is their bare minimum.
Big Ten
In:
Purdue [23-2 (12-2); Quad 1: 9-2; NET: 2]
Illinois [18-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 13]
Wisconsin [17-8 (9-5); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 20]
Bubble:
Michigan State [16-9 (8-6); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 21]
Nebraska [17-8 (7-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 53]
Northwestern [17-8 (8-6); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 59]
Purdue has this conference wrapped up.
Michigan State could slide into the “in” category soon. Their NET is too strong to ignore regardless of any warts (and there aren’t many, given that they are 7-9 in Quad 1/2 and unbeaten beyond that)
Nebraska‘s poor non-conference schedule is catching up to them. Their resume is annoying and the rest of their schedule doesn’t offer Quad 1 opportunities. Hence, they must go 5-1 if not 6-0.
Northwestern played an even worse non-conference slate than Nebraska, but one difference is that they defeated Dayton. The Wildcats were so close to sweeping Purdue. Like Nebraska, a strong finish is a necessity.
Missouri Valley
Bubble:
Indiana State [22-4 (13-2); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 28]
Drake [21-5 (12-3); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 51]
Why don’t I lock in teams like Indiana State? Because a clean resume can turn dirty with one bad conference loss. That happened to them on Tuesday when they lost a Quad 4 game against Illinois State. Their NET is still strong but that is likely the last big hit they can take with five regular season games remaining.
Drake hangs around on the fringes of the bubble, though their three Quad 3 losses will continue to haunt them. Can a trip to the conference championship be enough? Maybe, if they face Indiana State in that game.
Mountain West
In:
San Diego State [20-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 15]
Bubble:
New Mexico [20-6 (8-5); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 23]
Utah State [21-4 (9-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 27]
Colorado State [19-6 (7-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 30]
Boise State [16-8 (7-4); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 45]
Nevada [19-6 (6-5); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 47]
UNLV [14-9 (7-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 90]
It’s time to lock in San Diego State. Going on an extended winning streak in the Mountain West is hard, but I can’t imagine the Aztecs missing out at this point.
New Mexico took home an impressive road win over Nevada earlier in the week but lost on the road to San Diego State on Friday. Their big blemish is being swept by UNLV.
Utah State hasn’t lost in Quad 3/4 this season (12-0) and is an impressive 5-1 in Quad 2. While they lost a few games recently (San Diego State, Nevada), they rebounded to defeat Boise State. I circle three upcoming games (Fresno State (road), Air Force, San Jose State (road)) because losing those games would be their only ticket out of the NCAA Tournament.
Colorado State has a lot going for them: A strong non-conference slate and a 7-5 Quad 1/2 record. Their big black mark is their road loss (in overtime) to Wyoming.
Boise State has five Quad 1 wins, which is impossible to ignore. Equally impossible to ignore is a strong non-conference schedule with a neutral court win over St. Mary’s. The Broncos are 4-3 against likely/bubble NCAA Tournament teams within the conference.
Nevada is also the proud owner of five Quad 1 wins. Their non-conference schedule wasn’t nearly as strong as Boise State’s, even with a tournament title (Diamond Head Classic, where they defeated TCU in the semifinals). They couldn’t beat New Mexico this year but have wins over San Diego State, Utah State, and Colorado State.
UNLV is not really a bubble team but they merit a scrub based on four Quad 1 wins with the opportunity for more. The Rebels are on a five-game winning streak, though only the win over New Mexico (on the road) was impactful.
Pac-12
In:
Arizona [19-5 (10-3); Quad 1: 7-3; NET: 3]
Bubble:
Washington State [19-6 (10-4); Quad 1: 4-3; NET: 36]
Colorado [16-9 (7-7); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 42]
Utah [15-10 (6-8); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 48]
Oregon [16-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 63]
Arizona continues to push for a #1 seed, while four teams scramble for 1-3 additional bids.
Washington State is the only threat to Arizona’s Pac-12 title dreams. The Cougars have six straight wins and have a chance to complete a season sweep of Arizona on Thursday. Win that road contest and they lock themselves in.
Colorado doesn’t have a bad loss but Quad 1 wins have been hard to come by. UCLA is making some noise late, but the Buffaloes road loss to the Bruins didn’t help their cause. The committee will not like the 1-7 road record.
Utah had some momentum going and nearly knocked off Arizona (overtime loss). However, they have since lost to Arizona State (dreadful home loss) and USC. That doesn’t cut it.
Oregon is 1-4 against Colorado, Utah, Washington State, and Arizona. Looking ahead a few weeks, they close their season with Arizona (road), Colorado, and Utah. The Ducks may be in a position where they need to sweep those games.
SEC
In:
Alabama [17-7 (9-2); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 5]
Auburn [20-5 (9-3); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 6]
Tennessee [18-6 (8-3), Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 7]
Bubble:
Kentucky [17-7 (7-4); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 24]
Florida [17-7 (7-4); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 32]
Mississippi State [16-8 (5-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 35]
Texas A&M [15-9 (6-5); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 43]
South Carolina [21-4 (9-3); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 50]
Ole Miss [18-6 (5-6); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 62]
The top three schools in this conference stay strong in the top ten, while the rest try to move away from the pack.
Kentucky losing to Gonzaga hurt their shot to lock themselves into the tournament. They followed that up with a win over struggling Ole Miss. What will they do on the road against Auburn on Saturday?
Florida has snuck under the radar most of the season, and it is easy to see why. They have zero losses outside Quad 1 but have only two Quad 1 wins. The Gators need to keep their resume clean (don’t lose to Georgia on Saturday) while picking up a few more impressive wins along the way. They still play Alabama twice.
Mississippi State has losses in Quad 3 and Quad 4 and hasn’t been great against the other strong SEC schools (2-6). They are only 1-6 on the road (6-0 on neutral courts). The Bulldogs did defeat Tennessee and Auburn, however.
Texas A&M won three straight games, including conquests of Florida and Tennessee. They followed up those wins with a loss…at Vanderbilt? In a big conference, that is “only” a Quad 3 loss, but it is not a good look. Logic says they will beat Alabama on Saturday.
South Carolina has a big record in a big conference but the computers are not in love. Their non-conference schedule (285th) is one reason for that but the Gamecocks have several nice wins (most notably a road win over Tennessee). Despite the NET, I see them as a probable NCAA Tournament squad, but they can’t be losing by 40 – even if it was a road game against Auburn.
Ole Miss looks dead. The Rebels have three straight losses and their non-conference win over Memphis has lost steam. They must stop the bleeding against Missouri on Saturday.
Southland
Bubble:
McNeese [22-3 (11-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 58]
It’s the same story every time I write this – win out and lose in the conference title game and maybe your resume is looked at. Their season opening win at VCU has looked better lately (it represents their Quad 1 win)
Sun Belt
Bubble:
James Madison [23-3 (10-3); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 52]
The Dukes have done their job lately, including a nice win over Akron in the MAC-SBC Challenge last Saturday. Their 2-OT win over Kent State earlier this year was supposed to be a decent resume booster but Kent State hasn’t played well.
West Coast
In:
St. Mary’s [21-6 (12-0); Quad 1: 4-2; NET: 14]
Bubble:
Gonzaga [19-6 (9-2); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 22]
San Francisco [20-6 (9-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 65]
There’s something wrong with the world if St. Mary’s doesn’t get in at this point.
Gonzaga needed that win over Kentucky but has to do more to secure their spot. Stay away from a devastating loss and they should be OK. They close their season against Santa Clara, San Francisco (road), and St. Mary’s (road)
San Francisco‘s season is nothing but a bunch of annoying losses and 18-0 record in Quad 3/4 games. It is hard to make a case when your best win is a neutral court conquest of Minnesota.
WAC
Bubble:
Grand Canyon [23-2 (13-1); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 44]
Simply put: Don’t lose, let the committee be impressed by the San Diego State win, and see what happens. This squad deserves to show what they can do in the NCAA Tournament but the margin for error is very small.