A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games of Monday, 2/12.
ACC
In:
North Carolina [19-5 (11-2), Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 10]
Duke [19-5 (10-3), Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 16]
Bubble:
Clemson [16-7 (6-6); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 30]
Virginia [19-5 (10-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 32]
Wake Forest [16-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 0-4; NET: 39]
Pittsburgh [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 60]
Virginia Tech [13-10 (5-7); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 63]
The ACC looks like a 4-5 bid league.
Clemson is impressing on the road. In their last four road contests, they have wins over Florida State, North Carolina, and Syracuse to go along with a one-point loss to Duke. Remember that their non-conference schedule was one of the best in the country and they beat Boise State, Alabama (road), South Carolina, and TCU (neutral). Only a crash keeps them out.
Virginia’s impressive run landed them in the Top 25 this week. Their remaining schedule gives them opportunities to add more Quad 1 opportunities.
Wake Forest had a shot at a Quadrant 1 win on Monday but lost to Duke. The Demon Deacons are 5-4 in Quadrant 2, including a pair of wins that are right on the edge of Quadrant 1 (Florida, Virginia).
Pittsburgh is 3-6 in Quadrant 1/2 and 6-2 in Quadrant 3. That isn’t impressive, but they are 5-2 in road games.
Virginia Tech has three Quadrant 1 wins but their recent loss to Notre Dame was damaging. They are barely hanging on to relevance.
American Athletic
In:
None.
Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [19-5 (9-2); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 27]
SMU [16-7 (8-3); Quad 1: 0-3; NET: 43]
Memphis [18-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-2; NET: 75]
Florida Atlantic escaped Wichita State with an overtime win, raising their record to 10-4 in road/neutral games. I don’t need to keep reminding you about some of their impressive non-conference conquests. The Owls will dance this year, but remember that their remaining conference schedule has land mines.
SMU is one of those land mines, and the Mustangs are desperate for a Quadrant 1 win. Unlike Wake Forest, SMU struggles in Quadrant 2 as well (1-3), which is why their decent NET may not earn them much consideration.
After losing four straight games to teams with a NET rating of 100+, Memphis has won three in a row against teams that meet the same criteria. The Tigers must sweep Florida Atlantic.
If you wonder about South Florida, they lead the conference and have won nine straight. However, they are 14-3 in Quad 3/Quad 4 with some brutal losses mixed in. Their NET is too high (103). Perhaps they can be looked into if they beat Florida Atlantic and SMU (both home games) down the stretch.
Atlantic 10
In:
None.
Bubble:
Dayton [19-4 (9-2), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 18]
What does Dayton need to do to lock in a bid? Avoid multiple bad losses. The Flyers are 8-4 in Quad 1/2 and haven’t lost a game outside of Quadrant 1. They scheduled well in the non-conference and won several resume boosters (SMU (road), Saint John’s (neutral), Cincinnati (neutral)). They’re close.
Big 12
In:
Houston [21-3 (8-3), Quad 1: 7-3; NET: 1]
BYU [17-6 (5-5), Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 8]
Iowa State [18-5 (7-3); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 9]
Baylor [16-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 12]
Kansas [19-6 (7-5); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 17]
Bubble:
Texas Tech [18-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 26]
Oklahoma [18-6 (6-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 31]
Texas [16-8 (5-6); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 34]
Cincinnati [15-8 (4-6); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 35]
TCU [17-7 (6-5); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 42]
UCF [13-9 (4-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 67]
Kansas State [15-9 (5-6); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 77]
Can the Big 12 receive ten bids? It isn’t only possible, it’s probable (at this point, I don’t think UCF/Kansas State will make it 11 or 12). However, the bubble squads aren’t perfect and the schedules are harsh.
Texas Tech annihilated Kansas on Monday night, earning a needed 4th Quadrant 1 win. They jumped significantly in the NET rankings as they continue to overcome a bad non-conference slate.
Oklahoma couldn’t afford to lose to in-state rival Oklahoma State. Luckily for the Sooners, they won by four. Their remaining schedule is crazy. Beyond the rematch with Oklahoma State, they play Baylor (road), Kansas, Iowa State (road), Houston, Cincinnati, and Texas (road). This is why I would bet on ten bids from this conference but wouldn’t put my life savings on it.
Texas plays a lot of tough road games down the stretch (Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, Baylor). So far, the Longhorns have played well on opposing courts (beat Cincinnati, Oklahoma, and TCU).
Cincinnati is nearing the end of an 11-game gauntlet with a 3-6 mark, including a loss to West Virginia. Iowa State and UCF (road) are the two remaining opponents before they get a 1-game breather against Oklahoma State.
TCU has zero excuses to play a schedule that ranks 341st in the non-conference. It’s embarrassing and their NCAA Tournament seed will (hopefully) reflect that. The Horned Frogs have played as many games in Quad 3/4 as they have played in Quad 1/2 (12).
If you don’t understand by now, the Big 12 schedule is the best asset that some bubble teams have. UCF and Kansas State are not tournament teams, but both will have plenty of opportunities to get into the conversation. Kansas State is only 1-5 in their last six games, but the win is over Kansas.
Big East
In:
UConn [22-2 (12-1); Quad 1: 8-1; NET: 4]
Marquette [18-5 (9-3); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 11]
Creighton [17-7 (8-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 15]
Bubble:
Villanova [13-11 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 41]
Saint John’s [14-10 (6-7); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 46]
Butler [16-8 (7-6); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 50]
Xavier [13-11 (7-6); Quad 1: 2-8; NET: 52]
Providence [15-9 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 58]
Seton Hall [15-9 (8-5); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 76]
The regular season chase is down to two teams, as UConn and Marquette have separated themselves from the pack. The two squads have yet to play this year. Those games (2/17, 3/6) are must-see.
As for everyone else, I don’t think the Big East is a 3-bid league, but nobody on the bubble is making this easy.
Villanova has three Quadrant 1 wins and three Quadrant 3 losses. Their win over Seton Hall on Sunday helps their argument, but they are 3-7 in their last ten games.
Saint John’s is in trouble. It feels like it was five years ago when they had a 6-1 stretch that included wins over fellow bubblers Xavier, Butler, Villanova, and Providence. The only loss was a 4-point road loss to UConn. The momentum wasn’t sustained.
Seton Hall‘s slump hurts Butler, as their home loss to the Pirates is now in Quadrant 3. The road wins over Marquette and Creighton will stand out as they select the field.
Xavier‘s late-season surge hit a minor speed bump in their loss to Creighton. Their home losses to Delaware and Oakland crush their resume, but both are safely outside Quadrant 4 at least.
Providence had a signature win over Marquette on December 19th. The Friars are 5-7 since. It hasn’t been an easy schedule, but you can’t just rely on schedule strength alone.
We have seen teams with elevated NET rankings get in, and Seton Hall‘s wins over UConn and Marquette are huge. However, you can’t be losing to Villanova by 26, even if it was a road game. If they can beat Creighton or UConn on the road, they will be in good shape. Good luck.
Big Ten
In:
Purdue [22-2 (11-2); Quad 1: 8-2; NET: 2]
Illinois [17-6 (8-4); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 13]
Wisconsin [16-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 21]
Bubble:
Michigan State [15-9 (7-6); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 23]
Nebraska [17-8 (7-7); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 53]
Northwestern [17-7 (8-5); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 56]
Iowa [14-10 (6-7); Quad 1: 0-6; NET: 66]
I am not pulling Wisconsin from their “In” status, but they better wake up. The Badgers don’t have any bad losses (not even the Michigan loss qualifies) and are 10-8 in Quad 1/Quad 2. It will take a complete meltdown to make that stuff not matter.
Michigan State is two slots behind Wisconsin after their win over Illinois. The Spartans only have one road win this season (by two points over Maryland) and have back-to-back road contests against non-bubble teams Penn State and Michigan next. You don’t want to give the committee a reason to question your profile.
Nebraska is holding serve at home (15-1) but has struggled in road games (the only win is over Kansas State). Their remaining six games are against teams not projected to make the field, so the opportunity is there to fatten up their record.
Northwestern also lacks that big road win, but they did take Purdue to overtime in West Lafayette. That Quadrant 4 loss to Chicago State follows them around. Like Nebraska, their remaining schedule is light on NCAA Tournament squads, though they do play Iowa and Michigan State.
Iowa is close to death, but their best quality is their tough schedule. They need the Quad 1 wins, so having games remaining with Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois (2), and Northwestern gives them hope for a late-season surge.
Missouri Valley
Bubble:
Indiana State [22-3 (13-1); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 20]
Drake [20-5 (11-3); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 51]
With a NET of 20, it will be tough for the committee to keep Indiana State off the bracket. That said, it is a mid-major conference, where losses can quickly destroy your NET. Hence, impossible to lock them in.
Drake went into Bradley’s home gym on Saturday and beat them by seven. That earned them an important third Quadrant 1 win, but they do have a pair of Quadrant 3 losses. If the Bulldogs want to be taken seriously, they need to sweep their remaining games and get to the conference tournament final.
Bradley is off my list after back-to-back home losses, one of which was to Evansville (Quadrant 4).
Mountain West
Bubble:
San Diego State [18-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 19]
New Mexico [19-5 (7-4); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 22]
Colorado State [19-5 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 28]
Utah State [20-4 (8-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 29]
Nevada [19-5 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 47]
Boise State [16-8 (7-4); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 48]
UNLV [13-9 (6-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 87]
The top four teams have the best NET. The next three teams have the most Quadrant 1 wins. This nutty conference won’t get seven bids. Six is a stretch but not impossible.
San Diego State hasn’t lost outside of Quadrant 1 and is 7-6 in Quadrant 1/Quadrant 2. Other than Utah State, their toughest remaining games are at home. They should be able to get to the finish line.
New Mexico lost a home game to UNLV on Saturday and now must travel to play Nevada and San Diego State. Their status as an NCAA Tournament team is solid enough to overcome losses there.
Colorado State is on a 4-game winning streak which includes wins over San Diego State and Boise State. The Rams have been up-and-down following their sizzling 9-0 start but may be steadying the ship.
Utah State, meanwhile, has struggled lately (3-3 in their last six games). They don’t want to lose to Wyoming this week (road game) leading into back-to-back showdowns with Colorado State and San Diego State.
Nevada has banked five impressive Quadrant 1 wins. The Wolf Pack are dinged because of their Quadrant 3 loss not-so-great out-of-conference slate. Can they add a third straight Quadrant 1 win on Tuesday night (New Mexico)?
Boise State has played an impressive 11 Quadrant 1 games, winning five of them. They played a strong out-of-conference schedule, defeating St. Mary’s along the way. Did I mention road conference wins over Nevada and New Mexico? All that said, the Broncos have back-to-back road losses to Colorado State and Utah State by a combined 32 points.
UNLV is not a bubble team at this juncture, even with those four Quadrant 1 wins. While they played a strong non-conference schedule, they own three Quadrant 4 losses. The Rebels will need to win most of their remaining Quadrant 1 games to even get their resume in the room.
Pac-12
In:
Arizona [19-5 (10-3); Quad 1: 7-3; NET: 3]
Bubble:
Colorado [16-8 (7-6); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 38]
Washington State [18-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 4-3; NET: 40]
Utah [15-9 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 49]
Oregon [16-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 62]
Washington’s NET is not far off from Oregon’s, but I don’t yet see them as a bubble team. Can they beat Arizona and Washington State (both on the road) down the stretch?
Colorado is stuck on one Quad 1 victory (Washington on the road) but they are 5-3 in Quad 2. The Buffaloes lost both games to Arizona (by a combined 67 points!) and own only one road victory. Essentially, their resume is a solid non-conference schedule and zero bad losses.
Washington State‘s 5-game winning streak includes wins over Utah, Colorado, Washington (road), and Oregon (road). Additionally, the Cougars beat Arizona earlier this season. The rest of their schedule isn’t difficult, beyond playing Arizona on the road. I consider their resume as better than Colorado’s.
Utah followed up their 3-overtime loss to Arizona with a bad loss against Arizona State. Five of their last seven games are on the road, where the Utes are 1-5.
Oregon is 1-5 against potential NCAA Tournament teams (road win over Washington State). A lot of work is needed.
SEC
In:
Alabama [17-7 (9-2); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 5]
Tennessee [17-6 (7-3), Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 6]
Auburn [19-5 (8-3); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 7]
Bubble:
Kentucky [16-7 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 25]
Florida [16-7 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 33]
Mississippi State [16-8 (5-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 36]
Texas A&M [15-8 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 37]
South Carolina [21-3 (9-2); Quad 1: 3-2; NET: 45]
Ole Miss [18-5 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 59]
Kentucky has lost three straight home games and their remaining schedule isn’t easy. It is hard to imagine them being left out, but the bleeding must stop.
Florida is 14-0 in non-Quad 1 games and has recent victories over Mississippi State, Kentucky (road), and Auburn. The Gators have both games against Alabama as they try to better their Quad 1 resume.
Mississippi State won their first road game on Saturday, but it was over Missouri. The Bulldogs will continue to rely on their 6-0 neutral court mark. Their remaining schedule is tough.
Texas A&M has what many teams envy: Five Quad 1 wins. The Aggies mauled Tennesse by 16 on Saturday.
South Carolina looks like a lock on paper. It is February 13th and the Gamecocks lead the SEC and have 21 wins. Additionally, they are 5-2 on the road including a win over Tennessee. A bad non-conference schedule and a home loss to Georiga drag them down.
Ole Miss has work to do, and it starts tonight against Kentucky. After a home game against Missouri, they have a gauntlet against Mississippi State (road), South Carolina, and Alabama to get through.
Southland
Bubble:
McNeese [22-3 (11-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 57]
McNeese’s NET has jumped. They need to win out and maybe they would get consideration if they lost in the conference title game. The Cowboys are 3-2 in Quad 1/2, with every game on the road.
Sun Belt
Bubble:
James Madison [22-3 (9-3); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 54]
I have removed Appalachian State from consideration. As for James Madison, their resume is all about beating Michigan State, as their non-conference schedule beyond the Spartans was not good.
West Coast
Bubble:
St. Mary’s [20-6 (11-0); Quad 1: 4-2; NET: 14]
Gonzaga [18-6 (8-2); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 24]
San Francisco [20-6 (9-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 65]
What more does St. Mary’s need to do? Nothing. It’s as close to a lock as a mid-major can be.
Gonzaga desperately needed a Quad 1 win and finally earned it at Kentucky. The Bulldogs have work to do – namely, avoid big upsets and beat San Francisco and St. Mary’s on the road.
San Francisco is taking care of business lately (five straight wins), but only the victory over Santa Clara is somewhat solid. The Dons still have a road game against St. Mary’s remaining. If the conference tournament goes as currently planned, they would get Gonzaga in the semi-finals.
WAC
Bubble:
Grand Canyon [22-2 (12-1); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 44]
The WAC is the nation’s 14th strongest conference, which isn’t so bad when you have 33 conferences. The Lopes have to win their remaining seven conference games to even have a shot at an at-large bid. We shouldn’t forget that they played a decent non-conference schedule that included wins over San Francisco and San Diego State + a 7-point loss to South Carolina that looks stronger by the day. If they lose in the conference tournament, they will be a much-talked-about squad by mid-major enjoyers.