A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games of Friday, 2/9.
ACC
In:
North Carolina [18-5 (10-2), Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 10]
Duke [17-5 (8-3), Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 20]
Bubble:
Clemson [15-7 (5-6); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 29]
Wake Forest [15-7 (7-4); Quad 1: 0-3; NET: 33]
Virginia [18-5 (9-3); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 34]
Virginia Tech [13-9 (5-6); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 54]
Pittsburgh [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 61]
North Carolina beat Duke but is 1-2 in their last three games, opening up the conference title race…
Clemson is 4-4 in road games with wins over Alabama and North Carolina. The Tigers are 3-0 in neutral court games, including a win over TCU. This is gold for the committee.
Wake Forest has six Quadrant 2 wins but has a 0-3 Quadrant 1 record. The Demon Deacons have Duke and Virginia upcoming.
Virginia is one game behind North Carolina thanks to a 7-game winning streak. The road win over Clemson helps, but I still need to see more.
Ten Quadrant 1 games bolster Virginia Tech’s resume, though they are only 3-7. Neutral court wins over Boise State and Iowa State stand out.
Pittsburgh is new to the list, as a 5-1 stretch that includes wins over Duke and Wake Forest warrants a look. They have more Quad 3 losses (2) than Quad 1 wins (1).
American Athletic
In:
None.
Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [18-5 (8-2); Quad 1: 2-1; NET: 28]
SMU [15-7 (7-3); Quad 1: 0-2; NET: 45]
Memphis [17-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 77]
Florida Atlantic didn’t do themselves any favors with their loss to UAB, and their NET is going in the wrong direction. The Owls are a game behind South Florida (not a bubble team) in the AAC but own two impressive non-conference neutral court wins (Butler, Virginia Tech). For now, those games are strong Quadrant 2 wins instead of weaker Quadrant 1 wins.
SMU‘s best win is a road conquest of Florida State. Their 2/22 game at Florida Atlantic will likely make or break the Mustangs.
Memphis stopped the bleeding with wins over Wichita State and Temple. The Tigers will need to do more than that. For example, sweeping Florida Atlantic later this season.
Atlantic 10
In:
None.
Bubble:
Dayton [19-4 (9-2), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 18]
Richmond‘s undefeated conference run came to an end, which also took them off my bubble. The Spiders lack a resume-boosting opportunity for the rest of the season, as they only played Dayton once. As for the Flyers, a NET of 16, three Quadrant 1 wins and a strong strength of schedule places them close to lock status. However, Friday night’s ugly loss to VCU exposed their vulnerability: They have little to gain but much to lose with their remaining schedule. Losing at VCU is a Quad 1 loss, so it won’t kill them. Some of their future games, however, can be damaging.
Big 12
In:
Houston [20-3 (7-3), Quad 1: 6-3; NET: 1]
BYU [16-6 (4-5), Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 8]
Iowa State [17-5 (6-3); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 9]
Kansas [17-5 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 12]
Baylor [16-5 (6-3); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 14]
Bubble:
Oklahoma [17-6 (5-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 27]
Cincinnati [15-7 (4-5); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 32]
TCU [16-6 (5-4); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 35]
Texas Tech [16-6 (5-4); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 37]
Texas [15-8 (4-6); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 39]
UCF [13-8 (4-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 66]
Kansas State [15-8 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 78]
Six teams have three or four conference losses in the rowdy Big 12, which is one of the most competitive and impressive conferences you will ever find…Recent losses to Texas, Texas Tech, and UCF were missing opportunities for Oklahoma. Did they remedy the damage with the win over BYU?
I am not sure what to think about Cincinnati. Here comes clarity, however: Back-to-back home games against Houston at Iowa State
Butler’s recent solid play has boosted Texas Tech‘s out-of-conference schedule, even though they lost to the Bulldogs in overtime. Wins over Villanova and Michigan in the Battle 4 Atlantis were supposed to be impressive resume boosters.
If I am offended by Texas Tech’s out-of-conference schedule, my eyes should be bleeding over TCU‘s. We have a situation where their resume would be better if they were 13-9 with a strong out-of-conference slate instead of 16-6 with one of the worst non-conference schedules in college basketball.
Texas has four Quad 1 wins, three of which have come on the road (TCU, Oklahoma, Cincinnati). As stated, the committee will drool over that.
UCF and Kansas State are new additions. UCF gains some trust with the three Quadrant 1 wins but owns an awful Quad 4 loss to Stenson. The rest of their schedule is predictably brutal. Kansas State enters the conversation with their win over Kansas. That win broke a 4-game losing streak. The Wildcats have two non-conference losses (USC and Miami) which didn’t seem to be resume killers at the time. However, both teams have underachieved.
Big East
In:
UConn [21-2 (11-1); Quad 1: 7-2; NET: 4]
Marquette [17-5 (8-3); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 11]
Creighton [16-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 19]
Bubble:
Saint John’s [14-9 (6-6); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 43]
Villanova [12-11 (5-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 48]
Xavier [13-10 (7-5); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 50]
Butler [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 51]
Providence [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 56]
Seton Hall [15-8 (8-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 67]
By now, I was thinking I would have at least five teams in the “In” column. Instead, the bubble is a jumbled mess. The Big East has not lived up to expectations.
Saint John‘s is running in quicksand. Their resume is clean beyond a home loss to Michigan, but they are 1-6 in Quadrant 1 conference games. For now, the win over Utah isn’t enough.
Villanova is only 1-6 in their last seven games and was swept by Saint John’s this season. A 5-2 finish gets them to 17-13 (10-9) heading into the conference tournament, where they may need to do more to get in.
Death, taxes, and Xavier making a run at an NCAA Tournament bid. The Musketeers have three straight wins and start a stretch of games against Creighton, Seton Hall, Providence, and Marquette. Can they at least split those games?
Butler was able to play UConn within nine on the road. The Bulldogs earned home wins over Marquette and Creighton plus a home non-conference victory over Texas Tech. Like with Xavier, we will learn more soon as they play a 6-game gauntlet against Providence, Marquette, Creighton, Villanova, Seton Hall, and Saint John’s.
Providence has only one impressive road win (Seton Hall), which will be held against them in the committee room. They are 6-8 in Quadrant 1/2. The lack of bad losses helps keep them afloat.
Seton Hall couldn’t help themselves in their last two games, but they could have severely hurt themselves. They took care of business by beating DePaul and Georgetown.
Big Ten
In:
Purdue [21-2 (10-2); Quad 1: 8-2; NET: 2]
Illinois [17-5 (8-3); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 13]
Wisconsin [16-7 (8-4); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 15]
Bubble:
Michigan State [14-9 (6-6); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 24]
Northwestern [16-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 55]
Nebraska [16-8 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 57]
Iowa [13-10 (5-7); Quad 1: 0-6; NET: 64]
The top three should feel safe, even if Wisconsin lost to Michigan. 17 of their 23 games are in Quadrant 1/2 and they own a 10-7 mark in those games.
Once you think Michigan State is putting everything together, they lose to Minnesota. The Spartans own a massive 24-point win over Baylor and a solid NET that is bolstered by a difficult schedule.
In recent weeks, Northwestern has had an overtime win over Illinois and an overtime loss to Purdue. Their final eight games are manageable, which is a double-edged sword as they likely want to win at least six of them to feel good about their resume.
In a key bubble matchup, Nebraska lost to Northwestern on the road, which followed their road overtime loss to Illinois. The Cornhuskers are 1-7 in true road games with none of those games within the Big Ten (Kansas State).
Iowa sticks around while I remove Maryland. The Buckeyes are hanging on by a string after their loss to Penn State. They must start winning some Quadrant 1 games and their two Quadrant 3 losses don’t help either.
Missouri Valley
Bubble:
Indiana State [21-3 (12-1); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 22]
Drake [18-5 (10-3); Quad 1: 2-1; NET: 53]
Bradley [16-7 (9-4); Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 59]
There is no question that Indiana State is likely the only team that will get serious consideration for an at-large. But I want to continue to evaluate two other squads.
Indiana State is doing what they need to do. Last Saturday, they avenged their earlier loss to Drake. Now for something equally tough: Winning their final seven games. The competition isn’t good so any loss can be damaging. I am looking closely at that February 17th road game against Southern Illinois.
Drake‘s neutral court win over Nevada recently moved into the Quadrant 1 bucket, which is a nice boost.
Bradley is 11-2 in their last 13 games. The key loss during this streak was an overtime loss to Indiana State. The Braves and Drake play each other twice down the stretch.
Mountain West
Bubble:
New Mexico [19-4 (7-3); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 17]
San Diego State [18-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 21]
Colorado State [19-5 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 26]
Utah State [19-4 (7-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 30]
Boise State [16-7 (7-3); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 40]
Nevada [19-5 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 46]
Can the Mountain West earn six bids? It isn’t impossible, though they will continue to eat each other. One team that isn’t listed (UNLV) has three Quadrant 1 wins but is predictably being weighed down by three Quadrant 4 losses.
New Mexico is 8-3 in road/neutral games and their current 6-1 stretch includes wins over San Diego State, Utah State, and Nevada. The Lobos are closing in on being a lock.
San Diego State played a strong non-conference slate and has kept their noses clean most of the year. One blemish is having a tough time winning road games against strong teams (Gonzaga being an exception).
Colorado State has won four in a row after a 2-4 stretch. Their next three games are San Diego State (road), Utah State (home), and New Mexico (road). These games will have major conference title and bubble ramifications.
Utah State will try to get back on track after back-to-back double-digit losses to San Diego State and Nevada. They need to prevent falling into a trap when they play road games against Wyoming, Fresno State, and San Jose State down the stretch.
You cannot overlook a team with five Quadrant 1 wins, and two Mountain West squads have accomplished that. The first team is Boise State. The Broncos played a tough non-conference schedule. After their game at Utah State on Saturday, they go through a four-game stretch where they play Fresno State, San Jose State, Wyoming, and Air Force. They need to sweep those games.
Nevada, the other squad with five Quad 1 wins, beat Utah State and San Diego State back-to-back this week. The Wolf Pack play their third consecutive big game against New Mexico on Tuesday. Not many teams in the country have improved their stock more recently.
Pac-12
In:
Arizona [18-5 (9-3); Quad 1: 6-3; NET: 3]
Bubble:
Colorado [16-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 1-4; NET: 31]
Utah [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 36]
Washington State [17-6 (8-4); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 41]
Oregon [16-7 (8-4); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 58]
While Arizona plays for a #1 seed out West, the rest of the conference is fighting for crumbs.
Colorado owns a top 75 out-of-conference schedule but their best wins were neutral-court triumphs over Richmond and Miami. The Buffaloes are 1-6 on the road, with their lone win over Washington. That said, they are 13-0 with a huge potential resume booster against Arizona on Saturday.
Utah also has only one road win, though it is an impressive victory against St. Mary’s. Their big chance at boosting their resume resulted in a 3-overtime home loss to Arizona on Thursday. Their remaining schedule offers an opportunity to end the regular season with a gaudy record.
Washington State is 4-3 in conference road games. They will get a shot at another one against Oregon on Saturday.
Speaking of Oregon, they cannot afford to lose that game. The winner will stay in the regular-season conference title race. Like Washington State, the Ducks own four road wins (though one of them was a random non-conference game against Florida A&M). One of their road wins was over Washington State earlier this season.
SEC
In:
Tennessee [17-5 (7-2), Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 5]
Alabama [16-7 (8-2); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 6]
Auburn [19-4 (8-2); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 7]
Bubble:
Kentucky [16-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 23]
Florida [15-7 (5-4); Quad 1: 1-7; NET: 39]
South Carolina [20-3 (8-2); Quad 1: 3-2; NET: 42]
Mississippi State [15-8 (4-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 44]
Texas A&M [14-8 (5-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 47]
Ole Miss [18-5 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 60]
Auburn went from zero Quad 1 wins last weekend to two this weekend. As one small negative, their road loss to Appalachian State has slipped from Quadrant 1 to Quadrant 2. Regardless, they are safely in.
Kentucky is 6-3 in road/neutral games, including a win over North Carolina. The Wildcats are 1-3 in their last four games as they welcome Gonzaga to their gym in a rare February non-conference game.
Florida was on a 4-game winning streak before their one-point loss to Texas A&M. The Gators don’t own a bad loss but there is nothing to brag about when you have a 1-7 record in Quadrant 1 games.
South Carolina is playing with a chip on their shoulder as they try to prove that their gaudy record isn’t a fluke. Their 6-game winning streak includes wins over Kentucky, Tennessee (road), Georgia (road), and Ole Miss. The rest of their schedule is rough, but it’s nice to have 20 wins in your bank account heading into mid-February.
Mississippi State is 0-6 on the road but 6-0 on neutral courts. Their home wins include wins over Tennessee and Auburn. On neutral courts, they defeated fellow bubblers Northwestern and Washington State as they won the Hall of Fame Classic. It’s not a sexy or clean resume (they lost to Southern, after all), but it’s one that many teams would love to have.
Texas A&M went on the road early in the season to take on Ohio State and SMU and defeated both. Both wins bolster their Quad 1 record, which is why I implore all teams to schedule good teams in the non-conference. Ohio State and SMU may not even get to the NCAA Tournament, but the Quad 1 formula allows you to gain momentum by beating them on the road.
Ole Miss entered conference play with a 13-0 record and Top 25 ranking. Life hasn’t been as easy in the SEC, as three of their losses are by double digits. In their most recent outing, they did play a tough game at South Carolina. Now, it’s off to Kentucky for a big potential resume booster.
Southland
Bubble:
McNeese [20-3 (9-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 69]
How are all games intertwined? VCU’s win over Dayton on Friday helped McNeese, as their win over VCU is now a Quad 1 win. How long will that last? We’ll see as it is on the very bottom of Quad 1.
This can all be semantics, as their brutal loss at Southeastern Louisiana (Quad 4) was likely one of the final nails in the coffin.
Sun Belt
Bubble:
James Madison [21-3 (9-3); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 62]
Appalachian State [19-5 (10-2); Quad 1: 2-0; NET: 81]
James Madison is 21-1 against teams not named “Appalachian State” including a win over Michigan State. If they didn’t lose to Southern Miss and split with Appalachian State, their resume would be tempting. But it is fair to ask if a Sun Belt team with three conference losses deserves an at-large.
Appalachian State barely stays on the list after their road loss to Texas State. It is impressive to have a pair of Quad 1 wins, but they also own two Quadrant 4 losses.
West Coast
Bubble:
St. Mary’s [19-6 (10-0); Quad 1: 4-3; NET: 16]
Gonzaga [17-6 (8-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 25]
San Francisco [19-6 (8-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 63]
St. Mary’s owns 11 straight wins, including San Francisco and Gonzaga road conquests. They own a strong non-conference schedule, winning games against New Mexico and Colorado State (road). There are six games left on the schedule. Even if they lose at home to San Francisco and Gonzaga, they should feel comfortable if they win their other four games. Those four games are against Portland, Pepperdine (twice), and San Diego. No excuses for losing any of those games.
Gonzaga had a shot at a Quad 1 win but lost at home to St. Mary’s. The Bulldogs have three Quad 1 games left, all on the road: Kentucky, San Francisco, and St. Mary’s.
San Francisco has fallen short of earning that one big win all season. They will need to sweep the rest of their games if they want any chance to get in. Included in those six games are rematches with St. Mary’s and Gonzaga plus both games against Santa Clara. The road game should fall into Quadrant 2.
WAC
Bubble:
Grand Canyon [21-2 (11-1); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 49]
Grand Canyon’s only hope is sweeping their remaining eight games and getting to the conference final. They defeated San Diego State (home) and San Francisco (neutral) in the non-conference, with a loss to South Carolina (neutral) looking better by the day (the loss was by eight points). It’s a fun resume as their NET is right in line with bubble teams in bigger conferences, bolstered by a solid non-conference schedule and no bad losses (the loss to Seattle is in Quadrant 2, where the Lopes are 2-1)