1. Is Duke “finished”?
“Don’t ever count out Duke” is a familiar refrain when the NCAA Tournament starts. The Blue Devils are overflowed with talent but continue to underwhelm. During the game against North Carolina, you never felt that the Tar Heels were in trouble. In a series that rarely disappoints, Saturday’s game felt flat mostly because Duke never appeared to be in it.
Teams can turn it on during tournament time. UConn went 13-7 in Big East play last season, losing to Marquette in the semifinals of the tournament. In 2022, North Carolina was a #8 seed that fought their way to the title game. I would never count any talented team out, and it is easily forgotten that Duke is 11-2 in their last 13 games. That said, most of the wins (beyond Baylor) won’t go into the “impressive” bucket. The weakness of the ACC allows you to see a path where Duke has a shot at the conference title when North Carolina visits at the end of the season, but they have to play better to make that game meaningful.
2. The value of Quadrant 1
Only 103 schools have won a Quadrant 1 game this season (28.5%). Of those 103 schools, only ten have won at least five. That is why when you see teams winning multiple Quad 1 games, you take notice.
Some oddities/interesting facts:
UNLV has the same Quad 1 record (3-4) as NCAA Tournament locks/bubble teams Alabama, Iowa State, Illinois, Texas Tech, Clemson, and Providence. However, the Rebels are 3-3 in Quadrant 4, losing to Loyola Marymount, Southern, and Air Force. Win those games, and they are 15-6 (6-3) and likely somewhere on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Gonzaga’s loss to St. Mary’s dropped their Quadrant 1 record to 0-5. Historically, their Quad 1 records: 2021 (12-1); 2022 (11-4); 2023: 8-5. They will get two more shots during the regular season: February 10th at Kentucky and March 2nd at St. Mary’s.
Only three teams in college basketball have zero Quad 1/Quad 2 games: Western Kentucky, Marist, and Little Rock. Meanwhile, there is one “big conference” school with zero wins outside of Quadrant 4: DePaul. The Blue Demons are 3-19 (3-3 in Quadrant 4).
Top 25:
1. Purdue (21-2) (1) – Will the Boilermakers own a 27-2 record heading into their final two games (Illinois, Wisconsin)?
2. UConn (20-2) (2) – You hadn’t yet received your Christmas gifts the last time the Huskies lost.
3. Tennessee (16-5) (5) – 14 of their 21 games in Quad 1/2 (9-5). 12-2 in the last 14 games.
4. North Carolina (18-4) (3) – Random loss to Georgia Tech aside, the Tar Heels are in firm control of the ACC after beating Duke.
5. Houston (19-3) (4) – Did Kansas find a weakness in the Cougars’ defense, or was it just a random game? Kansas Shot 68.9% from the field.
6. Marquette (17-5) (7) – We are still two weeks away from the first UConn – Marquette showdown.
7. Kansas (18-4) (15) – The Jayhawks own wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, UConn, and Houston.
8. Arizona (17-5) (9) – A team this good shouldn’t have three losses in the watered-down Pac-12. Maybe they are bored?
9. Auburn (18-4) (12) – The Tigers finally earn their first Quad 1 win by knocking off Ole Miss. Five of their six remaining February games offer Quad 1 opportunities.
10. Illinois (17-5) (10) – The best way to describe Illinois this season is “holding steady.”
11. Creighton (16-6) (6) – One way to lose a conference title is by losing home games (Villanova, Butler).
12. Wisconsin (16-6) (8) – So close to beating Nebraska and Purdue this week. Both coin flips went the other way. Impressive 10-6 mark in Quad 1/2.
13. Iowa State (16-5) (14) – Losing by two at Baylor doesn’t hurt, especially when it follows up a stretch where you beat Houston and Kansas.
14. Baylor (16-5) (22) – Strong schedule + 6 Quadrant 1 wins. There will continue to be ebbs and flows in the Big 12.
15. BYU (16-5) (20) – Why do the NET and KenPom love them so much? Even when they lose, the games are close.
16. Alabama (16-6) (24) – The nation’s best offense is 10-1 in their last 11 games. Clocked a good Mississippi State team by 32.
17. Duke (16-5) (13) – The Blue Devils are only 5-5 in Quad 1/2. There seems to be something “missing” with this squad.
18. Kentucky (15-6) (11) – Their adjusted defense ranking is now 101st in the nation. That won’t cut it.
19. Florida Atlantic (18-4) (16) – The opportunities for big wins aren’t plentiful, so they need to do their best to avoid bad losses.
20. New Mexico (18-4) (17) – Their dominant 5-game winning streak came to an end at home against Boise State.
21. Saint Mary’s (18-6) (25) – Their win over Gonzaga gives them a clear path to the WCC title.
22. Dayton (18-3) (21) – Plenty of chances for resume-boosting Quad 2 wins remain.
23. South Carolina (19-3) (NR) – A 5-game winning streak that includes a home win over Kentucky and (especially) a road win over Tennessee makes them deserving.
24. San Diego State (17-5) (23) – The Aztecs have alternated wins and losses going back to January 9th. The win over Utah State on Saturday keeps them ranked.
25. Utah State (19-3) (18) – 7-3 in Quad 1/2 games.
Dropped Out:
Texas Tech (16-5) (19) – Their non-conference SOS will continue to weigh them down when they lose games. They are 3-5 in Quad 1/2 and 13-0 elsewhere.
Just Missed:
Indiana State (20-3) – Seven straight wins. Avenged their only conference loss (Drake) on Saturday.
Texas (15-7) – 4-4 in Quadrant 1 games. After losing to Houston in overtime at home, they knocked down TCU on the road.
Colorado State (17-5)/Boise State (16-6) – In a complex Mountain West, it is Boise State (5) and Colorado State (4) who own the most Quadrant 1 wins.