NCAA Basketball 2/3: The Bubble

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games of Friday, 2/2.

ACC

In: 
North Carolina [17-4 (9-1), Quad 1: 4-2; NET: 9]
Duke [16-4 (9-2), Quad 1: 4-1; NET: 16]

Bubble:
Clemson [14-6 (4-5), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 33]
Virginia [16-5 (7-3), Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 44]
Virginia Tech [13-8 (5-5), Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 49]
Wake Forest [13-7 (5-4), Quad 1: 0-3; NET: 50]

Clemson doesn’t have enough capital to survive a fall into a deep abyss, but their strong non-conference schedule (which included wins over Alabama and TCU) will be held in high regard by the committee. If they win the games they are supposed to win, they will be in…Virginia has five straight wins but none of them are going to move the needle much. Their best asset is a remaining schedule that includes Clemson, Duke, and North Carolina…Wake Forest‘s NET keeps them on the fringes of contention, as does their five wins in Quadrant 2. They will need to at least split with Duke to be taken seriously…Virginia Tech has impressive wins over Boise State and (especially) Iowa State in the non-conference. They also beat Clemson at home, which currently sits in the Quad 2 bucket.

American Athletic

In:
None.

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [17-4 (7-1), Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 28]
SMU [13-7 (5-3), Quad 1: 0-2; NET: 42]
Memphis [15-6 (4-4), Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 77]

In early February, my criteria for “In” is strict. Florida Atlantic likely has nothing to worry about, however. The win over Arizona + winning the ESPN Invitational will weigh heavily in the room. However, they can’t go into an extended in-conference slump…Thanks to a solid NET, SMU has snuck into the conversation, but they are 1-6 in Quad 1/Quad 2 games. The committee will not overlook that…Memphis has lost four straight games with NET rankings of 100+, each one worse than the last one. They recently lost to Rice, who has a ranking over 200. A once solid resume has fallen into an abyss.

Atlantic 10

In:
None.

Bubble:
Dayton [18-3 (8-1), Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 18]
Richmond [16-5 (8-0), Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 68]

The Atlantic 10 isn’t necessarily strong, but it does offer decent opportunities for good wins. Dayton owns three top 40 NET victories and their loss to Richmond isn’t going to hurt them. As for Richmond, they did what they needed to do by taking care of Dayton. Their issue is that they don’t play Dayton a second time. Five of their final ten games are against teams in the current NET Top 100. It would serve them well to sweep those games. Nobody said life on the bubble is easy.

Big 12

In:
Houston [19-2 (6-2), Quad 1: 7-2; NET: 1]
BYU [15-5 (3-4), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 6]
Iowa State [16-4 (5-2); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 10]
Kansas [16-4 (5-3); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 13]
Baylor [14-5 (4-3); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 15]

Bubble:
Oklahoma [16-5 (4-4); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 27]
Texas Tech [16-4 (5-2); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 29]
TCU [16-5 (5-3); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 30]
Cincinnati [14-7 (3-5); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 35]
Texas [14-7 (3-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 39]

For now, I am leaving Kansas State and UCF off the list, but they can easily enter it with some quality future wins.  I will admit that Baylor is a borderline “in” instead of “bubble,” but a 16th-ranked NET is not going to be left out. Their margin for error is simply smaller than that of a team like Houston…Oklahoma is hurt by a bad non-conference slate and a 2-4 recent record that could be suggesting a deep dive from their red-hot start. The Big 12 will continue to offer them opportunities for improvement…Texas Tech‘s non-conference slate was abysmal and they lost to a pair of Big East schools (Butler, Villanova). That said, they recently completed a tough stretch in their Big 12 slate with a 2-2 record. The wins were over BYU and Oklahoma. The loss to Houston was ugly…Sensing a theme? Oklahoma and Texas Tech are being dinged by their non-conference. Their schedule looks like a gauntlet compared to TCU, who played one of the worst non-conference slates in the country. I think the Horned Frogs have potential as a surprise exclusion without a big finish to their season…After beating BYU on 1/6, Cincinnati is 2-5. Things are about to become very dicey as their next three games are against Texas Tech, Houston, and Iowa State…Texas had two big chances at a big non-conference win and lost both (UConn and Marquette). The Longhorns are 3-5 in their last eight games. While I recognize that the committee doesn’t put much (if any) weight in that, it does show me a trend with an unforgiving month of February.

Big East

In:
UConn [19-2 (9-1); Quad 1: 7-2; NET: 4]
Marquette [16-5 (7-3); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 14]
Creighton [16-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 17]

Bubble:
Saint John’s [13-8 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 38]
Butler [14-7 (6-5); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 45]
Xavier [11-10 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 48]
Villanova [11-10 (4-6); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 53]
Providence [14-7 (5-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 55]
Seton Hall [14-8 (7-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 66]

The Big East was supposed to be stronger than this. They are a solid 4th in the NET, but the middle of the league isn’t nearly as strong as I thought it would be. Who will separate from the pack? St. John’s owns one good non-conference win (Utah) and lost to Michigan, Dayton (good loss), and Boston College. Their best conference win thus far was a road victory over Villanova. There is work to do…Butler is on a 4-game winning streak and owns a win over Texas Tech in the non-conference. Their biggest conquests, however, are impressive road wins over Marquette and Creighton…One of the strongest schedules in the nation is what keeps Xavier around despite the pedestrian record. That said, they are 1-2 in Quadrant 3 and desperately need to pull off big wins in February…Villanova struggled in the Big 5 Classic (0-3), which was eye-popping given their past in those games. That said, they won the Battle 4 Atlantis by defeating Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Memphis. Will the real Wildcats please stand up?… Providence has a non-conference win over Wisconsin and a few solid Big East wins (at Seton Hall, Marquette). That’s nice and all, but their 5-7 Quad 1/Quad 2 record needs some work…Seton Hall‘s season has been up and down and is currently down. They own wins over UConn and Marquette and a crazy 3-overtime loss to Creighton. Their loss to USC in the non-conference didn’t seem like a huge deal at the time, but USC’s unexpectedly poor season is hurting their resume.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [20-2 (9-2); Quad 1: 7-2; NET: 2]
Wisconsin [16-5 (8-2); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 11]
Illinois [16-5 (7-3); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 12]

Bubble:
Michigan State [13-8 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 22]
Nebraska [16-6 (6-5); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 57]
Northwestern [15-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 58]
Iowa [13-9 (5-6); Quad 1: 0-6; NET: 62]
Maryland [13-8 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 78]

What a difference between the top three and the middle tier. I almost crossed off Iowa and Maryland, but then my alarm bells started to go off: If not them, then who? Yes, I am saying I placed them on the bubble because someone has to be there…Michigan State doesn’t have a bad loss on their resume (9-0 in Quad 3/Quad 4) but they are struggling badly against strong competition. Their two best wins are outside the Big Ten: Baylor and Indiana State (you can laugh, but the Sycamores are 24th in the NET). Within the Big Ten? Maryland (79th)…Nebraska just scored a big home comeback victory over Wisconsin, giving them a much-needed third Quadrant 1 win. They also own wins over Purdue and Northwestern. If they do the unlikely and beat Illinois on the road, it’s going to be very hard to say “no” to them…Northwestern is the other team to knock off Purdue and their four Quadrant 1 wins place them in a good position. Their major blemish was their inexcusable home loss to Chicago State…I already spoke about Iowa and Maryland. Iowa needs some Quadrant 1 conquests to even be considered. Maryland has a few of those but is only 4-6 within Quad 1/Quad 2. Work is needed.

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [19-3 (10-1); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 24]
Drake [17-4 (9-2); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 52]
Bradley [15-6 (8-3); Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 60]

When you are a mid-major, you have to take care of any chances you get to make an impression. Indiana State‘s profile is solid, but it would look better if they could have pulled an upset over Alabama or Michigan State. Their best non-conference win is over Toledo, which clinched the Big Dawgs Classic tournament. If they put together a 26-5 regular season and lose late in the conference tournament, their resume will be a debated one…Drake defeated Indiana State and plays them again this weekend. They pulled off a solid win over Nevada in the non-conference…Bradley owns one of the conference’s biggest wins, knocking off Utah State in the non-conference to go along with Vermont, a team that traditionally dominates the America East. That said, they own both a Quad 3 and Quad 4 loss.
If the season ended today, only Indiana State would get serious consideration.

Mountain West

Bubble:
New Mexico [18-4 (6-3); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 19]
Utah State [19-2 (7-1); Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 20]
San Diego State [16-5 (5-3); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 23]
Colorado State [16-5 (4-4); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 32]
Boise State [15-6 (6-2); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 43]
Nevada [17-5 (4-4); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 56]

The wacky Mountain West should get four bids with a possibility of five. New Mexico was on a 5-game winning streak that included wins over San Diego State and Utah State before succumbing to Nevada. The best way to sum up their profile is “clean.”…Utah State only has that singular Quad 1 win but is 6-0 in Quad 2. Five of their next six games are resume-boosting opportunities…San Diego State will be bolstered in that selection room by their third-best non-conference strength of schedule. They own wins over Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga. In conference play, however, they have won the games they are supposed to win while struggling in tougher games…Colorado State sent out an early warning shot when they defeated Creighton. The Rams played a tough non-conference schedule which also included a win over Colorado and a close loss to St. Mary’s…Boise State‘s four Quadrant 1 wins set them up nicely for the rest of the season. The Broncos are 7-5 in Quad 1/Quad 2. They have a road trip next week to Colorado State and Utah State…Nevada picked a bad time to start losing, as they are 1-4 in their last five games. One positive is that the win is over Colorado State. The one negative is that one of the losses was against Wyoming. The Wolf Pack defeated TCU on their road to the Diamond Head Classic title.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [16-5 (7-3); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 3]

Bubble:
Colorado [15-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 31]
Utah [14-7 (5-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 34]
Washington State [15-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 40]
Oregon [15-6 (7-3); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 51]

The Pac-12 has been Arizona and the rest, though Oregon is currently tied at the top of the conference. Colorado‘s neutral court win over Miami has taken a hit, as the Hurricanes haven’t lived up to early-season expectations. However, their win over Richmond has gained some steam as Richmond continues to play well…Utah is another team that took advantage of St. Mary’s early season struggles, as they beat them on the road. BYU was another big early-season feather in their cap. They were swept when they took a trip through Washington last week. Now, they have a three-game home stretch that includes games against Colorado and Arizona…Washington State is in the middle of a 5-1 stretch that includes wins over Arizona, Utah, and Colorado. For now, beating Utah and Colorado at home are strong Quad 2 victories instead of Quad 1 wins…Oregon beat Georgia in Las Vegas and lost by eight to Alabama in Florida. They defeated Washington State earlier in the season and can complete a sweep next week.

SEC

In:
Tennessee [15-5 (5-2), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 5]
Alabama [15-6 (7-1); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 7]
Auburn [17-4 (6-2); Quad 1: 0-4; NET: 8]

Bubble:
Kentucky [15-5 (5-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 25]
Florida [15-6 (5-3); Quad 1: 1-6; NET: 36]
Mississippi State [14-7 (3-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 37]
South Carolina [18-3 (6-2); Quad 1: 4-2; NET: 41]
Texas A&M [12-8 (3-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 46]
Ole Miss [18-3 (5-3); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 59]

Let me start with Auburn. The committee loves Quad 1 wins, and they don’t have any. The committee will also see the 8th place ranking in the NET combined with the 5th place ranking in the KenPom. It’s a situation where they don’t have that big win but they are unbeaten in every other quadrant…It would take a massive crash for Kentucky to be left out. They own a neutral-court win over North Carolina but are looking for that difference-making conference win…Like Auburn, Florida struggles in Quad 1 but has piled up wins everywhere else. They have four straight wins, including their only Quad 1 win (at Kentucky) last time out…Mississippi State won the Hall of Fame Tip-off against two solid bubble teams (Washington State, and Northwestern). Within the conference, they have defeated Tennessee and Auburn. The NET will always be impacted if you lose in Quad 4, and they did just that (Southern)…South Carolina checks a lot of boxes. The 4-2 record in Quad 1 stands out. What holds them back? A poor non-conference schedule. Eight of their 18 wins are in Quad 4, and they own a loss in Quad 3. All this said they have won four in a row – including wins over Kentucky and Tennessee (on the road)…

Texas A&M has four Quad 1 wins and played a tough non-conference schedule. The committee will love that, even if they finish 18-13 in the regular season. Their home loss to Memphis didn’t look so bad until Memphis turned into a pumpkin…Ole Miss has the combination of a gaudy record and a meh non-conference slate. They have played 14 games in Quad 3/Quad 4 (14-0) and seven games in Quad 1/Quad 2 (4-3). Their remaining schedule is tough beyond two games against Missouri.

Southland

Bubble:

McNeese [19-2 (8-0); Quad 1: 0-1; NET: 65]

There shouldn’t be any illusion that McNeese has a great chance to get in. Their Quad 1 loss was to Louisiana Tech, a team that will not be on the bubble. They are an impressive 3-1 in Quadrant 2, the most impressive win being a road win over VCU. So, why are their chances slim (to be kind about it)? Because their best remaining opponent is Texas A&M-Corpus Christie, a team that is ranked 202nd in the NET. It’s going to be hard to improve on their current standing, but it will be rather easy to crush their resume. One conference loss will likely do them in.

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [19-3 (7-3); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 63]
Appalachian State [18-4 (9-1); Quad 1: 2-0; NET: 73]

James Madison was the “big hope” in the mid-major world earlier in the season. Their 14-0 start included a win at Michigan State. However, they have lost three in-conference games, putting them in a place where they may be briefly discussed with little chance to make it…Appalachian State swept James Madison already and has a mightily impressive home win over Auburn (that’s right – the Tigers played a game on a mid-majors court!). Their resume would be more impressive if they didn’t lose their first two Division I gams this season (Northern Illinois and Oregon State).

West Coast

Bubble:

St. Mary’s [17-6 (8-0); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 21]
Gonzaga [16-5 (7-1); Quad 1: 0-4; NET: 26]
San Francisco [17-6 (6-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 61]

Interestingly, other than St. Mary’s, the only other team in the conference with Quad 1 wins is Santa Clara (they have two). However, their overall resume leaves them short of the bubble…St. Mary’s started slow. After their first eight games, they were 3-5 (and one of the wins was outside of Division 1). Luckily for them, most of the losses weren’t killers, as they own the 19th-best non-conference schedule that includes wins over New Mexico and Colorado State (road). The Mountain West is a good conference to target if you want a juicy non-conference ranking, and St. Mary’s scheduled five games against the league…It isn’t normal to see Gonzaga entering February without a Quad 1 win. They have won five straight games and get a chance at their first Quad 1 win on Saturday when they welcome St. Mary’s to their gym…San Francisco has to be frustrated. Their non-conference losses include Boise State (road by 5), Grand Canyon (neutral by 4), and Utah State (neutral by 1 – but it was played in Salt Lake City). Within the conference, they lost at Gonzaga by five. They desperately needed to win a few of those games, as they are 13-0 in Quadrant 4, which won’t impress anyone.

WAC

Bubble:

Grand Canyon [20-2 (10-1); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 47]

Grand Canyon’s in-conference loss to Seattle (12-9; NET: 123) stings. In the non-conference, they are elevated by a win over San Diego State and a close (75-68) loss to South Carolina. The Lopes are 3-1 in Quadrant 2, including a win over San Francisco on a neutral court. Luckily for them, the Seattle loss falls in this quadrant, allowing them to claim that they have a clean resume. Is there any hope for them to make it? If they go 29-2 in the regular season and make it to the conference title game, would that be enough? It is very hard to say. The first step to that isn’t necessarily easy – winning nine in a row down the stretch against conference opponents isn’t easy for anyone. However, when you play in the WAC, a gaudy record and doing something of significance in the non-conference is a prerequisite for at-large consideration.