Month: February 2024

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games on Sunday, February 25th.

NET, not my bubble preference is how I rank the teams. I have to rank by something, and using the NCAA’s tool seems like a good start.

Is Florida Atlantic in any danger? Is there still a chance for a team out of the Princeton/McNeese/Indiana State/Drake/Grand Canyon/James Madison bucket to earn an at-large? Let’s analyze some of that below.

ACC

In: 
North Carolina [21-6 (13-3), Quad 1: 7-4; KenPom: 8; NET: 9]
Duke [21-6 (12-4), Quad 1: 6-3; KenPom: 9; NET: 10]

Bubble:
Clemson [19-8 (9-7); Quad 1: 4-3; KenPom: 24; NET: 23]
Wake Forest [18-9 (10-6); Quad 1: 1-4; KenPom: 19; NET: 25]
Pittsburgh [18-9 (9-7); Quad 1: 3-5; KenPom: 54; NET: 47]
Virginia [20-8 (11-6); Quad 1: 3-4; KenPom: 66; NET: 49]
Virginia Tech [15-12 (7-9); Quad 1: 3-8; KenPom: 55; NET: 56]

North Carolina pushes ahead of Duke, and it may be hard for the Blue Devils to overtake them. Remember that the ACC doesn’t have a tiebreaker – if 2+ teams tie for the best record in the conference, they are all recognized as the regular-season champions. They will use tiebreakers for tournament seeding.

Barring an 0-4 finish and a first-round exit in the ACC Tournament, Clemson is in good shape. Wins over Pitt and Notre Dame this week could be enough.
Wake Forest earned a massive win over Duke on Saturday. Why wasn’t that their second Quad 1 win? Their home win over Florida is back to being a strong Quad 2 victory. Their Quad 1 resume is why they aren’t locked in.
Pittsburgh (6-3 on the road) has a big game at Clemson on Tuesday. The Panthers close with three Quad 3 games, so this is their last chance to put their stamp on a bid.
Virginia can’t score (under 50 points in their last three games). The Cavaliers can’t fall into a trap and lose at Boston College on Wednesday. Their big game with Duke follows that.
Virginia Tech is now 1-8 on the road (3-10 in road/neutral) after their loss to Pittsburgh. Syracuse offers an opportunity at a needed Quad 2 road win on Tuesday. A home game with Wake Forest follows that.

American Athletic

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [21-7 (11-4); Quad 1: 1-1; KenPom: 35; NET: 37]
SMU [18-9 (10-5); Quad 1: 0-3; KenPom: 45; NET: 43]
South Florida [21-5 (14-1); Quad 1: 0-0; KenPom: 93; NET: 84]

While the AAC is competitive, a Florida Atlantic tournament win could leave them with only one bid.

South Florida is officially running away with the regular-season title. Their NET is mediocre (but improving) and it is too bad that the Bulls played Florida Atlantic and SMU once apiece, both at home. I don’t know what the committee would do with them if they lose in the conference tournament, but they have to be considered.
Florida Atlantic is 0-3 in their last three conference road games, losing to UAB, South Florida, and Memphis. The Owls played a solid non-conference schedule, though most of the wins beyond Arizona have slipped into Quadrant 2, where they are 6-4. I think their footing is solid but that 3/6 game at North Texas (14-12) could be tricky.
SMU is 1-8 in Quad 1/Quad 2. The Mustangs had a shot to solidify their resume but lost a pair of road games to Florida Atlantic and South Florida. Their resume is being held together by duct tape, despite their decent NET.

Atlantic 10

Bubble:
Dayton [21-5 (11-3), Quad 1: 3-3; KenPom: 26; NET: 20]

Dayton hasn’t played since their 2/21 loss to George Mason. Assuming they get past Davidson, their Friday night game at Loyola-Chicago will play a role in determining the regular-season A-10 champions. Loyola is tied with Richmond at the top, but neither is an at-large threat.

Big 12

In:
Houston [24-3 (11-3), Quad 1: 7-3; KenPom: 1; NET: 1]
Iowa State [21-6 (10-4); Quad 1: 6-4; KenPom: 11; NET: 8]
BYU [19-8 (7-7), Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 18; NET: 13]
Kansas [21-6 (9-5); Quad 1: 7-5; KenPom: 15; NET: 14]
Baylor [18-8 (8-6); Quad 1: 5-8; KenPom: 14; NET: 16]

Bubble
TCU [19-8 (8-6); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 25; NET: 30]
Texas Tech [19-8 (8-6); Quad 1: 5-7; KenPom: 31; NET: 35]
Oklahoma [19-8 (7-7); Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 38; NET: 39]
Texas [17-10 (6-8); Quad 1: 4-7; KenPom: 36; NET: 40]
Cincinnati [16-11 (5-9); Quad 1: 4-7; KenPom: 47; NET: 45]

The bubble teams continue to shift. There is an obvious gap between the top of the conference and the middle, but most of these teams could win an NCAA Tournament game. By the way, BYU is 5-5 in their last ten games but their NET has barely moved. Three of their remaining four games are brutal (Kansas (road), TCU, and Iowa State (road). If they go 0-3 and lose to Oklahoma State at home (the Cougars lost to the Cowboys on the road), could it get interesting? Maybe.

TCU is dinged by me (and the NET) due to an atrocious non-conference slate that didn’t include one quality win. Playing in the Big 12 has offered up opportunities, and wins over Houston and Baylor (road) stand out. Additionally, they are 3-4 in conference road games, with several close losses (Kansas (2 points), Cincinnati (4, in overtime), and Texas Tech (1)). Bottom line? Tournament committees hate bad non-conference schedules but TCU has counteracted that with solid play within the nation’s best conference.
Texas Tech echos TCU – bad non-conference schedule void of a big win. Their Saturday loss at UCF stings, but they can make up for that by beating Texas on Tuesday.
Oklahoma needed a buzzer-beater to avoid a devastating loss to Oklahoma State (one of only two Big 12 schools (West Virginia) that I haven’t featured in the Bubble Watch). Their remaining schedule may be the most brutal in the country: Iowa State (road), Houston, Cincinnati, Texas (road). It would serve them well to win one.
Texas is equal parts intriguing and frustrating. Can they solidify their position with a win at Texas Tech on Tuesday?
Cincinnati is trying to spoil the “Big 12 will get ten bids!” party. The Bearcats are 1-4 in their last five games and go to Houston on Tuesday. Good luck (?)

Big East

In:
UConn [25-3 (15-2); Quad 1: 9-3; KenPom: 3; NET: 3]
Creighton [20-8 (11-6); Quad 1: 6-5; KenPom: 12; NET: 11]
Marquette [21-6 (12-4); Quad 1: 6-5; KenPom: 13; NET: 12]

Bubble:
Villanova [15-12 (8-8); Quad 1: 3-8; KenPom: 33; NET: 38]
Saint John’s [16-12 (8-9); Quad 1: 2-9; KenPom: 39; NET: 44]
Providence [18-9 (9-7); Quad 1: 5-6; KenPom: 53; NET: 55]
Seton Hall [18-9 (11-5); Quad 1: 5-5; KenPom: 56; NET: 61]
Butler [16-12 (7-10); Quad 1: 3-11; KenPom: 58; NET: 62]

UConn has the regular-season title all but wrapped up and will fight for the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Big East continues to be a 3-team league with a wild bunch-up underneath. Can they get as many as six bids?  Five is more realistic, but six isn’t impossible.

Villanova? It’s a broken record. The Wildcats hope their wins over Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Creighton (road) carry the day. They had a chance to make a statement against UConn and flopped.
Saint John‘s is far away from being a contender, but the Red Storm’s chances would have been closing in on zero if they lost at home to Creighton. Can they beat struggling Butler on the road?
Providence is the latest team to knock Xavier down, as the Friars won an important road game by four. You can do worse than 8-9 in Quad 1/2 games without a bad loss. They go to Marquette on Wednesday.
Seton Hall‘s NET isn’t great, but the Pirates are on solid ground. They are 3-0 during what I called a “6-game gauntlet,” but those three teams have fallen (Xavier, St. John’s (road), Butler). If they can find a way to split their next two games (road against Creighton and UConn), good luck trying to keep them out.
Butler ran into a tough part of their schedule. They are 3-5 during this stretch, including 1-5 in their last six. The Bulldogs desperately need to beat St. John’s at home.

Xavier fell under .500, eliminating themselves from bubble consideration. If the Musketeers can go on a late-season run, I will re-add them.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [25-3 (14-3); Quad 1: 9-3; KenPom: 2; NET: 2]
Illinois [20-7 (11-5); Quad 1: 4-5; KenPom: 10; NET: 17]
Wisconsin [18-9 (10-6); Quad 1: 7-6; KenPom: 22; NET: 22]
Michigan State [17-11 (9-8); Quad 1: 3-8; KenPom: 20; NET: 24]

Bubble:
Nebraska [19-8 (9-7); Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 34; NET: 41]
Northwestern [19-8 (10-6); Quad 1: 4-5; KenPom: 43; NET: 53]
Iowa [16-12 (8-9); Quad 1: 3-8; KenPom: 49; NET: 60]
Ohio State [16-12 (6-11); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 62; NET: 66]

As soon as I lock in Michigan State, they lose back-to-back home games to Iowa and Ohio State. I will keep them there, but the rest of their regular-season schedule isn’t easy (Purdue (road), Northwestern, Indiana (road)).

Nebraska isn’t going to earn many points for their 4-game winning streak (Michigan, Penn State, Indiana (road), Minnesota), but losing any of those games would have hurt their chances. The Cornhuskers are in compiler mode but need to be careful as two of their final three games are on the road (Ohio State, Michigan).
Northwestern has pulled into a tie for third in the conference (Wisconsin), as they are 4-1 in their last five games. Don’t lose that road game to Maryland this week!
Iowa was going for a third straight big win (after beating Wisconsin and Michigan State) but came up ten points short at Illinois. The Hawkeyes need work had help. They will get another shot at Illinois to close out the season.
Ohio State earns a spot on my list after knocking off Purdue and Michigan State on back-to-back Sundays. Their non-conference win over Alabama certainly helps, but they likely need to finish the season 19-12 (9-11) + some work in the Big Ten Tournament.

Ivy League

Bubble:
Princeton [21-3 (9-2); Quad 1: 0-0; KenPom: 64; NET: 51]

The winners of six straight, the Tigers have a big game against Cornell on Saturday. The winner will likely earn at least a share of the regular-season title (along with Harvard, also 9-2)

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [24-5 (15-3); Quad 1: 1-3; KenPom: 46; NET: 33]
Drake [23-6 (14-4); Quad 1: 2-1; KenPom: 50; NET: 46]

Drake fell off the conference pace by losing to Northern Iowa by 14. Meanwhile, Indiana State is tired of their random losses as they crushed Valparaiso and UIC by a combined 34 points. In terms of the bubble, it could be interesting if both teams win out until the conference title game. Would that guarantee a slot for both?

Mountain West

In:
San Diego State [21-7 (10-5); Quad 1: 5-7; KenPom: 16; NET: 18]

Bubble:
New Mexico [21-7 (9-6); Quad 1: 4-3; KenPom: 32; NET: 26]
Colorado State [20-8 (8-7); Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 29; NET: 27]
Utah State [22-5 (10-4); Quad 1: 3-4; KenPom: 40; NET: 29]
Boise State [19-8 (10-4); Quad 1: 5-5; KenPom: 42; NET: 32]
Nevada [22-6 (9-5); Quad 1: 5-4; KenPom: 41; NET: 42]
UNLV [16-10 (9-5); Quad 1: 5-4; KenPom: 75; NET: 81]

As we enter the final stretch of the season, five teams have either four or five conference losses.

I had two choices with New Mexico this week. I don’t want to take teams I place into the “In” category out, but I felt it was more appropriate to push them down to the bubble rather than bring Colorado State up to the land of locks.

The top four bubble teams are hard to differentiate. Beyond those four, Nevada has five Quad 1 wins but played a poor non-conference schedule. That said, they defeated TCU in the non-conference and have wins over Utah State (road), San Diego State, and UNLV (road) during their 6-1 stretch.
New Mexico has alternated losses and wins since their five-game winning streak. Their most recent loss (home against Air Force) falls into Quad 4, and that is problematic. That said, they swept Nevada and won singular games against Colorado State and San Diego State. I still think they are safe – just not “lock them in” safe.

UNLV winning the regular-season conference title would be a fun story. The Rebels are 8-1 in their last nine games with wins over New Mexico (road) and Colorado State. 

Essentially, everyone except for UNLV is challenging the committee to leave any of them out of the field. It’s that tight. I don’t think any conference in college basketball is better at playing the “Quad 1” system to their advantage.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [21-6 (12-4); Quad 1: 7-3; KenPom: 4; NET: 4]
Washington State [21-7 (12-5); Quad 1: 5-3; KenPom: 37; NET: 36]

Bubble:
Colorado [18-9 (9-7); Quad 1: 1-5; KenPom: 30; NET: 34]
Utah [16-11 (7-9); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 51; NET: 54]
Oregon [18-9 (10-6); Quad 1: 2-4; KenPom: 60; NET: 63]

It looked like Washington State was going to steal the conference title from Arizona, but Arizona State had other ideas. The Cougars are 13-1 at home and their remaining games are all home games. Even with the loss to Arizona State and subsequent drop in the NET, I am keeping them in…barely.

Yes, I get the ridiculousness in having Colorado on the bubble while locking in Washington State. The major issue for me is the 1-5 Quad 1 record. Furthermore, while Washington State swept Arizona, Colorado lost both games by a combined 67 points. Bottom line? Not a horrible resume, but I think I can justify Washington State as “In” while leaving Colorado “Out” for now.
Utah is 2-7 on the road, with their big win being over St. Mary’s. The Utes own a neutral-court win over Wake Forest but are 2-6 in their last eight games
Oregon‘s resume is blah. Their loss at California should have been the final nail, but the Ducks still play Arizona (road), Colorado, and Utah.

SEC

In:
Tennessee [21-6 (11-3), Quad 1: 4-5; KenPom: 6; NET: 5]
Alabama [19-8 (11-3); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 7; NET: 6]
Auburn [21-6 (10-4); Quad 1: 1-6; KenPom: 5; NET: 7]
Kentucky [19-8 (9-5); Quad 1: 5-5; KenPom: 17; NET: 19]

Bubble:
Mississippi State [19-8 (8-6); Quad 1: 3-5; KenPom: 28; NET: 28]
Florida [19-8 (9-5); Quad 1: 4-7; KenPom: 27; NET: 31]
South Carolina [22-5 (10-4); Quad 1: 3-3; KenPom: 48; NET: 48]
Texas A&M [15-12 (6-8); Quad 1: 5-6; KenPom: 57; NET: 58]
Ole Miss [19-8 (6-8); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 74; NET: 75]

The race to the finish here is fun. I am happy that Kentucky justified my lock by winning three of their last four games (Ole Miss, Auburn (road), and Alabama). 

Mississippi State turned on the jets to differentiate themselves from the crowd. Their five straight wins aren’t huge (struggling Ole Miss is the only quality-ish win). All this said, here’s the big test to end the season: Kentucky, Auburn (road), Texas A&M (road), and South Carolina.
Florida took a minor hit in the NET. That said, the Gators lost to Alabama in overtime before taking care of business against Vanderbilt. As long as they avoid losing to Missouri this week, they should be OK.
South Carolina needed a decent win and got it (at Ole Miss). Ole Miss’ struggles hold that win down. Can they follow that up with a road win over Texas A&M?
Texas A&M has five Quad 1 wins and four Quadrant 3 losses. A 4-game losing streak heading into their game with South Carolina isn’t ideal and they finish their season with games against Mississippi State and Ole Miss (road). A 1-3 finish puts them at 16-15 (7-11). The problem is that it possible that is exactly where they will be.
Ole Miss is destroyed. They haven’t defeated a quality opponent in February (Missouri only) but have a shot at a big win over Alabama on 2/28.

Southland

Bubble:

McNeese [24-3 (13-1); Quad 1: 0-0; KenPom: 65; NET: 52]

Simply keep avoiding the bad losses. Better yet, just make life easy on yourselves and win the conference tournament.

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [26-3 (13-3); Quad 1: 1-1; KenPom: 61; NET: 50]

The combined record of their opponents during their 8-game winning streak isn’t impressive (beyond Akron’s). Their schedule eased up greatly down the stretch and the Dukes took care of it. Appalachian State (23-5, 14-2) is their big nemesis – will they meet up again in the title game?

West Coast

In:

St. Mary’s [23-6 (14-0); Quad 1: 4-2; KenPom: 23; NET: 15]

Bubble:

Gonzaga [22-6 (12-2); Quad 1: 1-5; KenPom: 21; NET: 21]
San Francisco [22-7 (11-3); Quad 1: 0-5; KenPom: 63; NET: 57]

Gonzaga passed their mild test by beating Santa Clara by 13. Their fate rests in their final two games: On the road against San Francisco and St. Mary’s.
San Francisco‘s fate may already be sealed. If a few coin flips went their way, they would be sitting on a few Quad 1 wins, at least. As is, they probably need to get to the conference title game to have any shot at at-large consideration, but that is even a stretch.

WAC

Bubble:

Grand Canyon [24-4 (14-3); Quad 1: 1-1; KenPom: 68; NET: 59]

I will leave Grand Canyon on the list since I don’t have anything better to do. Obviously, big conference schools get credit if they lose close road games against good competition. In the WAC, you can’t go on the road and lose to Abilene Christian (NET: 254). It’s a dagger that is almost impossible to overcome.

 

 

 

 

 

 

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games on Thursday, February 22.

NET, not my bubble preference is how I rank the teams. Essentially, I have to rank by something, and using the NCAA’s tool seems like a good start.

ACC

In: 
North Carolina [20-6 (12-3), Quad 1: 6-4; KenPom: 10; NET: 10]
Duke [21-5 (12-3), Quad 1: 6-2; KenPom: 8; NET: 12]

Bubble:
Clemson [18-8 (8-7); Quad 1: 4-3; KenPom: 24; NET: 25]
Wake Forest [17-9 (9-6); Quad 1: 1-5; KenPom: 20; NET: 27]
Virginia [20-7 (11-5); Quad 1: 3-3; KenPom: 65; NET: 47]
Virginia Tech [15-11 (7-8); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 50; NET: 51]
Pittsburgh [17-9 (8-7); Quad 1: 3-5; KenPom: 61; NET: 57]

North Carolina and Duke are heading for a collision course for the regular-season title. From a tournament perspective, a #2 seed is still in play. The Blue Devils’ NET is improving (+5 since Sunday).

Clemson is 90% safe. The home loss to North Carolina State delayed their ascension to lock status, but they didn’t let that snowball on the road against Georgia Tech. The Tigers are done with North Carolina/Duke (1-2, with one of the losses a 1-point loss at Duke) so they simply need to keep their nose clean.
Wake Forest is an example of why one doesn’t just look at NET to declare a team in or out. By most measures, Clemson’s resume outshines theirs. So, why are they so close? Clemson has two Quad 3 losses while Wake Forest has zero Quad 3/4 losses. A big home game against Duke on Saturday offers them a Quad 1 opportunity.
Virginia? One can excuse most road losses. It isn’t easy to win on the road, which is why a quality road win is held in such high esteem. However, a late-season loss to Virginia Tech by 34 points doesn’t resonate well. Something to consider: Every Virginia road loss is by double digits (23, 22, 16, 19, 11, 34). On top of that, they lost to Wisconsin by 24 on a neutral court (counteracted by a three-point win over Florida). In other words, their resume isn’t necessarily bad, but red flags are abundant.
Virginia Tech needed that win over Virginia. The Hokies have one road win (North Carolina State) and have two coming up: A huge bubble game against Pitt and Syracuse.
Pittsburgh has two big road wins (Duke, Virginia) but owns one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country with no quality wins (their best non-conference win was a Quad 3 victory over West Virginia). We’ve seen better teams get dinged by the committee.

American Athletic

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [21-6 (11-3); Quad 1: 2-1; KenPom: 34; NET: 33]
SMU [18-8 (10-4); Quad 1: 0-3; KenPom: 40; NET: 40]
South Florida [20-5 (13-1); Quad 1: 0-0; KenPom: 98; NET: 93]

South Florida has a 2-game lead with one game left against SMU and zero games left with Florida Atlantic. This would be a shocking conference title.

Tournament decision-makers encourage teams to play tough schedules. Florida Atlantic did just that, beating Butler, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech and Arizona in non-conference play while losing to Illinois by nine. Their resume takes a hit thanks to a weird loss to Bryant and a deadly loss to Florida-Gulf Coast. As terrible as that loss is, the Owls should feel comfortable.
SMU needs to do something in Quad 1. After losing at Florida Atlantic on Thursday night, their opportunities the rest of the regular season = 0. It isn’t like their resume is boosted in Quad 2, as they are only 2-3 in those games.
South Florida‘s win over FAU has fallen into a strong Quad 2 victory instead of a Quad 1. It could flip back the other way, so the game doesn’t matter too much. What does hurt? Losses to Maine and Central Michigan.I am intrigued to know what the committee would do if they win out, only to lose in the conference tournament finals (or even semi-finals).

Atlantic 10

Bubble:
Dayton [21-5 (11-3), Quad 1: 3-4; KenPom: 28; NET: 19]

No team hanging around the Top 20 in the NET is going to miss the tournament. Losing on the road to George Mason takes them out of first place in the A-10, but they don’t need a conference title to be a tournament team.

Richmond (NET: 70) and Loyola-Chicago (6 straight wins; NET: 99) are tied atop the conference but aren’t at-large threats at this time.

Big 12

In:
Houston [23-3 (10-3), Quad 1: 9-3; KenPom: 1; NET: 1]
Iowa State [20-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 6-5; KenPom: 9; NET: 8]
BYU [19-7 (7-6), Quad 1: 4-5; KenPom: 15; NET: 11]
Baylor [18-7 (8-5); Quad 1: 6-5; KenPom: 14; NET: 14]
Kansas [20-6 (8-5); Quad 1: 6-4; KenPom: 17; NET: 17]

Bubble
Texas Tech [19-7 (8-5); Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 25; NET: 29]
TCU [18-8 (7-6); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 32; NET: 37]
Texas [17-9 (6-7); Quad 1: 4-7; KenPom: 33; NET: 38]
Oklahoma [18-8 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 36; NET: 39]
Cincinnati [16-10 (5-8); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 41; NET: 45]

The possibility of ten NCAA Tournament teams still exists in the Big 12. I can’t imagine how they would fall under nine, barring a major collapse.

Texas Tech has two road wins, but they are quality (Oklahoma, Texas). Their bad non-conference schedule (and lack of a big non-conference win) is what holds them back.
Look at TCU/Texas/Oklahoma. How do you differentiate between those profiles? Texas has the extra Quad 1 win, and TCU has the extra in-conference win. Texas has a Quad 3 loss while TCU and Oklahoma have identical records in all four quadrants. None of the three played strong non-conference schedules, though TCU’s rank (325th) is atrocious. At the moment, it’s meaningless as it only impacts the seed lines.
Cincinnati is a touch below those three teams. Their non-conference schedule wasn’t great and they didn’t beat either of the two good teams on it (Xavier/Dayton). The Bearcats are on a 4-8 freefall and need to fix that if they want to feel safe.

Big East

In:
UConn [24-3 (14-2); Quad 1: 9-3; KenPom: 3; NET: 4]
Creighton [20-7 (11-5); Quad 1: 6-4; KenPom: 11; NET: 9]
Marquette [19-6 (10-4); Quad 1: 6-5; KenPom: 13; NET: 13]

Bubble:
Villanova [15-11 (8-7); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 31; NET: 34]
Saint John’s [15-12 (7-9); Quad 1: 2-9; KenPom: 45; NET: 50]
Providence [18-9 (9-7); Quad 1: 5-6; KenPom: 54; NET: 56]
Xavier [13-13 (7-8); Quad 1: 2-9; KenPom: 49; NET: 61]
Butler [16-11 (7-9); Quad 1: 4-10; KenPom: 57; NET: 62]
Seton Hall [17-9 (10-5); Quad 1: 5-5; KenPom: 60; NET: 65]

Should UConn fear dropping to a #2 line because their NET is 4? Short answer: No. The NET is an important tool in the shed. But one has to look at the overall resume. The Huskies are closer to the #1 overall seed than a #2 seed. That said, the middle of the Big East being “meh” this season is not helping the “Big 3” in the computer rankings.

Villanova would be locked in if not for that 0-3 record in the Big 5 Classic, a Philadelphia-area tournament the Wildcats typically dominate. However, they went 3-0 in the Battle 4 Atlantis, defeating Texas Tech and North Carolina along the way. After a 5-game conference losing streak, they are on a minor 4-1 run heading into their game at UConn.
Saint John’s is an example of the NET not always telling a full story. The Red Storm’s only two wins over the last several weeks have come against DePaul and Georgetown, as their last win of consequence was nearly a month ago against Villanova. If a team was safely in the tournament, having Georgetown and DePaul in two of their final four games would be a blessing. As is, those games are toss-outs and the only thing that matters is what they do against Creighton and Butler (road).
Providence has five Quad 1 wins, which will weigh heavily in the board room. Their resume may need a final boost and three of their final four games offer that opportunity (Marquette (road), Villanova, UConn)
Xavier is teetering on extinction. Resume-wise, they are not all that dissimilar from St. John’s. However, 13-13 won’t cut it. The Musketeers have both games against Marquette awaiting.
Butler is legitimately about two things: The road wins over Marquette and Creighton + those 14 Quad 1 games. Well, three things if you factor in the lack of bad losses (8-0 in Quad 3/4). Their road game against Seton Hall on Saturday has major bubble implications.
Seton Hall has languished on the bottom of the bubble, according to the NET. In reality, those five Quad 1 wins carry a lot of weight. The Pirates are in the middle of a six-game gauntlet, where they are 2-0 with games against Butler, Creighton (road), UConn (road), and Villanova upcoming. Win one of those games (and beat DePaul) and they are looking at 19-12 (12-8) heading into the conference tournament. That’s solid work.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [24-3 (13-3); Quad 1: 9-3; KenPom: 3; NET: 2]
Illinois [19-7 (10-5); Quad 1: 4-5; KenPom: 12; NET: 16]
Wisconsin [18-9 (10-6); Quad 1: 7-6; KenPom: 21; NET: 21]
Michigan State [17-10 (9-7); Quad 1: 3-8; KenPom: 16; NET: 23]

Bubble:
Nebraska [19-8 (9-7); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 38; NET: 43]
Northwestern [19-8 (10-6); Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 44; NET: 55]
Iowa [16-11 (8-8); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 51; NET: 63]

Purdue is back in the running for the top overall seed, after UConn’s loss. Don’t forget that the Boilermakers played arguably the best non-conference schedule in the country, something that will weigh heavily in the committee’s decision.

Nebraska is a good story that needs to put the finishing touches as a clean resume (12-0 in Quad 3/4) that includes wins over Purdue and Wisconsin. The rest of their schedule is manageable, leaving the Big Ten Tournament as the ultimate decider.
Northwestern has a little bit of everything in its profile. The non-conference schedule was bad, with a loss to Chicago State equalized by a win over Dayton. A road win over Maryland on Wednesday would be a decent resume-booster.
Iowa won’t let me get rid of them, as they earned back-to-back wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State (road). The Hawkeyes have both games with Illinois remaining + a road game against Northwestern. A 2-1 record will raise their profile significantly.

Minnesota is on the bubble’s bubble – they need a miracle but have three road games (Nebraska, Illinois, Northwestern) to help make that miracle happen.
Ivy League

Bubble:
Princeton [19-3 (7-2); Quad 1: 0-0; KenPom: 69; NET: 54]

Nothing has changed here. Their neutral court win over Rutgers is unlikely to reach Quad 1 status, which would likely help but not guarantee a thing. They are a long shot if a conference tournament victory isn’t secured.

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [23-5 (14-3); Quad 1: 1-3; KenPom: 46; NET: 32]
Drake [23-5 (14-3); Quad 1: 2-1; KenPom: 48; NET: 44]

It is a fight to the finish for these two teams. If they both win their remaining regular-season games and get to the conference championship, a decent chance that both will get into the bracket. The biggest hurdle remaining for Drake is a home game against Bradley. The biggest hurdle for Indiana State is themselves, as they can’t afford another bad loss.

Mountain West

In:
San Diego State [20-7 (9-5); Quad 1: 4-7; KenPom: 18; NET: 18]
New Mexico [21-6 (9-5); Quad 1: 3-3; KenPom: 26; NET: 20]

Bubble:
Colorado State [20-7 (8-6); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 29; NET: 26]
Utah State [22-5 (10-4); Quad 1: 3-4; KenPom: 39; NET: 31]
Boise State [18-8 (9-4); Quad 1: 5-4; KenPom: 43; NET: 35]
Nevada [21-6 (8-5); Quad 1: 5-4; KenPom: 42; NET: 42]
UNLV [15-10 (8-5); Quad 1: 4-3; KenPom: 84; NET: 87]

It is time for me to lock in New Mexico. The Lobos have only one big road win (Nevada), but it is hard to imagine them being left out of the field.

Colorado State hasn’t done much wrong this season. They knocked off Creighton (by 21) and Colorado while losing by three to St. Mary’s. The Rams’ issue is a 3-6 road mark without a quality win.
Utah State is atop the conference by a half-game with three “easy” games on the docket before a season-ending home game against New Mexico. Their 10-4 record in road/neutral games is impressive. with wins over San Francisco, UNLV, and New Mexico mixed in.
Boise State‘s neutral court loss to Washington State keeps earning them points, especially since it was only a 5-point deficit. The Broncos end their campaign with games against New Mexico, Nevada, and San Diego State (road). Their resume promised to be a good one.
Nevada is 5-1 in their last six games, including wins over Utah State (road) and San Diego State. Their only loss was a one-point defeat by New Mexico.
If UNLV goes 5-0 down the stretch (wins over Colorado State, San Diego State, and Nevada), maybe they are in the discussion. After all, that would be a 20-10 record with seven Quad 1 wins. Easier said than done.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [20-6 (11-4); Quad 1: 7-3; KenPom: 4; NET: 3]
Washington State [21-6 (12-4); Quad 1: 5-3; KenPom: 30; NET: 28]

Bubble:
Colorado [17-9 (8-7); Quad 1: 2-5; KenPom: 37; NET: 41]
Utah [16-10 (7-8); Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 47; NET: 46]
Oregon [18-8 (10-5); Quad 1: 2-5; KenPom: 56; NET: 59]

Washington State completed a sweep against Arizona on Thursday night, giving them a half-game lead with the tiebreaker. The Huskies are 11-1 in their last 12 games, as they turned a blah early-season resume into a lock before the calendar turns to March. The Cougars will be a dangerous team in the NCAA Tournament.

Colorado is a beneficiary of Washington State’s run, as their home conquest of the Cougars has risen to Quad 1. The Buffaloes must get out of their 1-4 rut, however.
Like Colorado, Utah is struggling lately (2-5). If Pac-10 bubble games are your pleasure, Utah travels to Colorado on Saturday.
Oregon needs to sweep their final five games, including at Arizona.

Washington‘s NET (69) is on the edge of bubble consideration, but it is tied heavily into their non-conference schedule and not so much into quality wins (1-6 in Quad 1). Their two remaining road games (Arizona and Washington State) could earn them a look if they somehow win them.

SEC

In:
Alabama [19-7 (11-2); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 6; NET: 5]
Tennessee [20-6 (10-3), Quad 1: 5-5; KenPom: 7; NET: 6]
Auburn [20-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 2-5; KenPom: 5; NET: 7]
Kentucky [18-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 23; NET: 24]

Bubble:
Florida [18-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 2-8; KenPom: 27; NET: 30]
Mississippi State [18-8 (7-6); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 35; NET: 36]
Texas A&M [15-11 (6-7); Quad 1: 6-5; KenPom: 52; NET: 49]
South Carolina [21-5 (9-4); Quad 1: 2-3; KenPom: 55; NET: 58]
Ole Miss [19-7 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 70; NET: 68]

Kentucky may have me questioning my “lock” choice, but I will keep them there. As for the other locks, I don’t know if any of them can sneak into a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but all of them are in the #2 seed conversation.

Florida played one of the most entertaining games of the season, a 98-93 overtime loss at Alabama. Close losses against good teams dot their resume and they have zero losses outside Quad 1. It is a “different” resume, but the formula works.
Mississippi State has followed up a 3-6 stretch with four straight wins, the biggest being a home conquest of Mississippi. If the Bulldogs stretch that streak to nine, it will mean they added wins over Kentucky Auburn (road), Texas A&M (road), and South Carolina.
Texas A&M is going in the opposite direction. The Aggies have three straight losses, two against non-tournament teams (Vanderbilt, Arkansas (home)). They can lean on those six Quad 1 wins, but they must stop the bleeding. That will be tough on Saturday (at Tennessee).
South Carolina has been off all week, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Their next two games are on the road (Ole Miss, Texas A&M). If the Gamecocks lose both, their resume will go from rock solid a few weeks ago to questionable.
Ole Miss needs that win as much as South Carolina does. The Rebels were one of the last unbeaten teams this season, but conference play has eaten them up. They are 14-1 at home and will need to hold serve against South Carolina and Alabama next.

Southland

Bubble:

McNeese [23-3 (12-1); Quad 1: 1-0; KenPom: 64; NET: 53]

I have nothing to add to what I wrote last time:
Three of their final five opponents have NET rankings over 300. Their NET will take a small hit if they win these games. If they lose any of them? Good night.

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [25-3 (12-3); Quad 1: 1-1; KenPom: 58; NET: 48]

My advice? Keep comparing their resume to those of McNeese, San Francisco, Grand Canyon, Indiana State, and Drake amongst the mid-major hopefuls. Only 1-2 may get in (unless they win the conference tournaments).

West Coast

In:

St. Mary’s [22-6 (13-0); Quad 1: 4-2; KenPom: 22; NET: 15]

Bubble:

Gonzaga [21-6 (11-2); Quad 1: 1-5; KenPom: 19; NET: 22]
San Francisco [21-7 (10-3); Quad 1: 0-5; KenPom: 66; NET: 60]

Gonzaga hit an easy part of the schedule and took care of business convincingly. However, destroying Loyola Marymount, Pacific, and Portland isn’t going to wow anyone (as evidenced by their solid footing on the bubble). The Bulldogs can’t lose at home against a tricky Santa Clara squad. The road game against St. Mary’s to close the regular season is huge for their chances.
San Francisco lost by four to St. Mary’s on Tuesday. Add that to their annoying losses to Boise State (5 points), Grand Canyon (4 points), Utah State (1 point), and Gonzaga (5 points). All those games were either on a neutral court or the road (Gonzaga). As of now, they will get two more cracks at Gonzaga (home on 2/29 and a potential semi-final matchup in the conference tournament)

WAC

Bubble:

Grand Canyon [24-3 (14-2); Quad 1: 1-0; KenPom: 62; NET: 52]

Sometimes, you run into a hot team and lose. That is what happened to Grand Canyon on Thursday night, as they lost to Tarleton State on the road. The Texans have seven straight wins to place themselves just a game and a half behind Grand Canyon.

As for Grand Canyon, does a second conference loss destroy their chances? It certainly doesn’t help, but in-conference games are always tough to navigate. The Lopes have lost to both teams right behind them in the standings (Seattle is the other). They have made their resume more difficult to argue for, but they are not out of the running.

 

 

 

 

 

 

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games of Sunday, 2/18

ACC

In: 
North Carolina [20-6 (12-3), Quad 1: 5-4; KenPom: 10; NET: 9]
Duke [20-5 (11-3), Quad 1: 5-2; KenPom: 11; NET: 17]

Bubble:
Clemson [17-8 (7-7); Quad 1: 4-3; KenPom: 30; NET: 27]
Wake Forest [16-9 (8-6); Quad 1: 1-5; KenPom: 26; NET: 40]
Virginia [20-6 (11-4); Quad 1: 2-2; KenPom: 53; NET: 41]
Pittsburgh [17-8 (8-6); Quad 1: 2-4; KenPom: 51; NET: 47]
Virginia Tech [14-11 (6-8); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 64; NET: 62]

The home loss to North Carolina State delays Clemson‘s ascension to locked status, but the Tigers should be fine.
Wake Forest finally earned a Quad 1 win – from a game that was played in November. Their home conquest of Florida now qualifies.
Virginia would appear to be in great shape, given that they are in the conference title race. Perhaps the computers hate 49-47 wins as well?
Pittsburgh has won five straight and has a 7-3 road/neutral record. The Panthers went from an also-ran to a legit contender once they beat Duke at Cameron and they have kept that momentum going (6-1 since that game)
Virginia Tech has three Quad 1 wins but is 1-4 in their last five games. The Boise State/Iowa State wins can only carry you so far.

American Athletic

In:
None.

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [20-6 (10-3); Quad 1: 2-1; KenPom: 34; NET: 29]
SMU [18-7 (10-3); Quad 1: 0-2; KenPom: 39; NET: 34]
South Florida [19-5 (12-1); Quad 1: 1-0; KenPom: 100; NET: 92]

Florida Atlantic showed their grit in their comeback attempt against South Florida but came up short. Their resume is still rock solid.
SMU mauled Memphis. Their rise is impressive, but the lack of a Quad 1 win (and only two Quad 2 wins) will hold them back.
South Florida has 11 straight wins. Their losses to Central Michigan, Maine, Hofstra, and UMass are what crush their NET.

Memphis (and North Texas for that matter) have better NET rankings than South Florida, but it is easier for me to justify South Florida for the time being.

Atlantic 10

Bubble:
Dayton [21-4 (11-2), Quad 1: 2-4; KenPom: 24; NET: 19]

Loyola-Chicago (11-2) and Richmond (10-2) won’t let Dayton get away, but the Flyers are still the lone tournament at-large hopeful from this league. The Flyers travel to Loyola-Chicago on March 1st.

Big 12

In:
Houston [22-3 (9-3), Quad 1: 8-3; KenPom: 1; NET: 1]
Iowa State [20-5 (9-3); Quad 1: 6-4; KenPom: 9; NET: 8]
BYU [18-7 (6-6), Quad 1: 3-5; KenPom: 16; NET: 10]
Baylor [18-6 (8-4); Quad 1: 6-4; KenPom: 12; NET: 11]
Kansas [20-6 (8-5); Quad 1: 6-4; KenPom: 17; NET: 16]

Bubble:
Texas Tech [18-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 23; NET: 26]
Texas [16-9 (5-7); Quad 1: 4-7; KenPom: 29; NET: 33]
TCU [18-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 32; NET: 36]
Cincinnati [16-9 (5-7); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 36; NET: 37]
Oklahoma [18-8 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 37; NET: 39]
UCF [13-11 (4-8); Quad 1: 2-6; KenPom: 69; NET: 67]
Kansas State [15-9 (5-6); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 77]

Texas Tech would be safely in if they played better teams in the non-conference. As is, the Red Raiders have road wins over Oklahoma and Texas alongside their home win over Kansas.
Texas has three solid in-conference road wins to go along with their home win over Baylor. The Longhorns still have road games against Kansas, Texas Tech, and Baylor.
TCU not only has that 3-OT road win over Baylor. The Horned Frogs lost road games to Kansas by two and Cincinnati by four in overtime. You don’t always have to win for the committee to be impressed.
Cincinnati added UCF to its road ledger which includes Texas Tech and BYU. Quality road wins are gold.
Oklahoma is in a 5-7 rut after their 13-1 start. The Big 12 schedule doesn’t make it easy to get out of such ruts.
UCF is 1-6 on the road (Texas) and 1-5 in their last six games. The fork is getting closer to the plate.
Kansas State is 1-6 in their last seven games If the fork is closing in on UCF, it has already penetrated the skin on Kansas State.

Big East

In:
UConn [24-2 (14-1); Quad 1: 9-2; KenPom: 2; NET: 4]
Creighton [19-7 (10-5); Quad 1: 5-4; KenPom: 13; NET: 13]
Marquette [19-6 (10-4); Quad 1: 6-5; KenPom: 14; NET: 14]

Bubble:
Villanova [14-11 (7-7); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 31; NET: 35]
Saint John’s [14-12 (6-9); Quad 1: 2-9; KenPom: 42; NET: 51]
Xavier [13-12 (7-7); Quad 1: 2-9; KenPom: 44; NET: 54]
Butler [16-10 (7-8); Quad 1: 4-9; KenPom: 55; NET: 57]
Providence [17-9 (8-7); Quad 1: 4-6; KenPom: 56; NET: 59]
Seton Hall [17-9 (10-5); Quad 1: 5-5; KenPom: 59; NET: 63]

The Big East has to be disappointed in their overall performance. The conference is ranked 5th according to NET, with only the Pac-12 below them amongst the power conferences.

Villanova needs wins, no matter who they are against. They aren’t getting into the tournament, however, based on a gaudy record. The Wildcats have to win some games against quality opponents down the stretch.
Saint John’s is the second-highest team on the Big East bubble according to the NET, but is anyone taking them seriously? The only team they have defeated since January 24th is DePaul.
Xavier’s NET is OK, and they had a strong non-conference schedule. However, they might be under .500 soon.
Butler will send the committee videos of their road wins over Marquette and Creighton to remind the committee what they are capable of. However, both teams bounced back to beat Butler on their home court.
Providence is 2-6 on the road (DePaul, Seton Hall). Their next two games are road games against Xavier and Marquette.
Seton Hall‘s NET is hurt by losses to USC and Rutgers. However, they are 5-4 on the road, have five Quad 1 wins, and swept St. John’s. I think their NET doesn’t tell the full story of who they are.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [23-3 (12-3); Quad 1: 9-3; KenPom: 3; NET: 2]
Illinois [19-6 (10-4); Quad 1: 4-5; KenPom: 8; NET: 12]
Michigan State [17-9 (9-6); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 15; NET: 20]
Wisconsin [17-9 (9-6); Quad 1: 6-6; KenPom: 19; NET: 21]

Bubble:
Nebraska [18-8 (8-7); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 40; NET: 49]
Northwestern [18-8 (9-6); Quad 1: 4-5; KenPom: 47; NET: 56]
Iowa [15-11 (7-8); Quad 1: 1-7; KenPom: 57; NET: 67]

Michigan State is now locked in.

Nebraska is terrible on the road. The Cornhuskers have stacked wins, but have work to do (the upcoming road game against Ohio State is huge)
Northwestern has wins over Dayton, Purdue, Michigan State, and Illinois. How did this team lose to Chicago State (Quad 4)??
Iowa re-enters my bubble after beating Wisconsin. Now comes the make-or-break week: Games at Michigan State and Illinois.

For now, I cannot justify adding Ohio State, as they are second-to-last in the conference. We will revisit if they build off the Purdue win.

Ivy League

Bubble:
Princeton [19-3 (7-2); Quad 1: 0-0; KenPom: 66; NET: 53]

I figured I would take a look at Princeton today. I don’t see their resume as more compelling than the likes of McNeese, James Madison, or Grand Canyon. I think the Tigers could have afforded one conference loss heading into the conference tournament. Two was one too many. We’ll keep them here, for now.

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [22-5 (13-3); Quad 1: 1-3; KenPom: 49; NET: 32]
Drake [22-5 (13-3); Quad 1: 2-1; KenPom: 48; NET: 46]

Indiana State followed up their brutal loss to Illinois State with a road loss to Southern Illinois. Their final four regular-season games are must-wins if they want a shot at an at-large.
Drake has won four in a row to tie at the top of the conference. The Bulldogs have a 19-point neutral court win over Nevada as their biggest feather.

Mountain West

In:
San Diego State [20-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 5-6; KenPom: 18; NET: 18]

Bubble:
New Mexico [20-6 (8-5); Quad 1: 3-3; KenPom: 25; NET: 24]
Colorado State [20-6 (8-5); Quad 1: 4-5; KenPom: 28; NET: 25]
Utah State [21-5 (9-4); Quad 1: 2-4; KenPom: 41; NET: 30]
Boise State [17-8 (8-4); Quad 1: 5-5; KenPom: 50; NET: 43]
Nevada [20-6 (7-5); Quad 1: 5-4; KenPom: 45; NET: 44]
UNLV [14-10 (7-5); Quad 1: 4-4; KenPom: 94; NET: 94]

At this point, New Mexico and Colorado State are hardly perfect but are close to locking in.
Utah State is in good shape, though they can use a few more Quad 1 wins. The Aggies can’t allow their recent 20-point loss to Colorado State to snowball.
Boise State has five Quad 1 wins and the committee is going to have a tough time ignoring that. The Bronocs are 7-7 in Quad 1/Quad 2  They are in the middle of a 4-game stretch against easier opponents. It would serve them well to go 4-0.
Nevada also has five Quad 1 wins. and is 4-1 in their last five games (the one loss was by a point against New Mexico). If they stay clean, they should make it.
UNLV has little chance. The Rebels have three Quad 1 games remaining, two of which are at home. If they win all three to end the season 7-4 in Quad 1, they need to be looked at closely. Good luck with that.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [20-5 (11-3); Quad 1: 7-3; KenPom: 4; NET: 3]

Bubble:
Washington State [20-6 (11-4); Quad 1: 4-3; KenPom: 33; NET: 31]
Colorado [17-9 (8-7); Quad 1: 1-5; KenPom: 38; NET: 42]
Utah [16-10 (7-8); Quad 1: 3-5; KenPom: 46; NET: 50]
Oregon [17-8 (9-5); Quad 1: 2-4; KenPom: 61; NET: 61]

Washington State came out of nowhere and is on the brink of a tournament clinch. They would be on a 12-game winning streak if not for a weird loss to Cal on 1/20.
Colorado is hanging on, thanks to a 6-4 Quad 2 record and zero bad losses. It is too bad, for their sake, that the 27-point mauling of Miami doesn’t carry more weight as Miami has underperformed.
Utah needed that 1-point road win over a surging UCLA squad on Sunday. A bubblicious matchup at Colorado comes on Saturday.
Oregon has a couple of “easy” road games next (both in California) before ending their season with Arizona/Colorado/Utah. When your resume has holes, you often need miracles.

SEC

In:
Alabama [18-7 (10-2); Quad 1: 2-6; KenPom: 6; NET: 5]
Tennessee [19-6 (9-3), Quad 1: 5-5; KenPom: 5; NET: 6]
Auburn [20-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 2-5; KenPom: 7; NET: 7]
Kentucky [18-7 (8-4); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 21; NET: 22]

Bubble:
Florida [18-7 (8-4); Quad 1: 3-7; KenPom: 27; NET: 28]
Mississippi State [17-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 3-6; KenPom: 35; NET: 38]
Texas A&M [15-10 (6-6); Quad 1: 6-5; KenPom: 43; NET: 45]
South Carolina [21-5 (9-4); Quad 1: 3-3; KenPom: 54; NET: 58]
Ole Miss [19-6 (6-6); Quad 1: 3-5; KenPom: 67; NET: 65]

Let’s not fool ourselves:  Kentucky is an NCAA Tournament squad.

Florida is 7-1 in their last eight games. The stretch includes wins over Mississippi State, Auburn, and Kentucky. Can they beat Alabama (road) on Wednesday?
Mississippi State is hurt by a 1-6 road record (the only win is over Missouri). Their final six games are brutal (when you consider LSU is a road game). Good luck.
Texas A&M has six Quad 1 wins. SIX! Texas A&M has four Quad 3 losses. FOUR!
South Carolina surprisingly needs to do more despite a 21-5 (9-4) record in a strong conference. Their neutral court wins over Virginia Tech and Grand Canyon should elevate them somewhat, but their final five games include four road contests against other NCAA hopefuls. The Gamecocks may be nervous on Selection Sunday.
Speaking of nerves, Ole Miss has two big bubble games this week: Mississippi State (road) and South Carolina. Their lack of bad losses (14-0 in Quad 3/Quad 4) is a blessing (committee likes clean resumes!) and a curse (that’s a lot of Quad 3/4 games). The Rebels need a few more quality wins.

Southland

Bubble:

McNeese [23-3 (12-1); Quad 1: 1-0; KenPom: 63; NET: 52]

McNeese’s NET has soared (+15 since 2/11), placing them in the same range as Utah, St. John’s, Princeton, Xavier, James Madison, and Northwestern. Their non-conference SOS was solid (69th in the KenPom). All this adds up to to a school that should be taken seriously if they get to the conference title game and lose.

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [24-3 (11-3); Quad 1: 1-0; KenPom: 65; NET: 55]

McNeese and James Madison look like twins, but McNeese had (by far) the stronger non-conference slate. That said, James Madison has the better Quad 1 win (Michigan State vs. VCU). Also helping James Madison is that the Sun Belt is the 17th-ranked conference in the nation, while the Southland is 27th.

West Coast

In:

St. Mary’s [21-6 (12-0); Quad 1: 4-2; KenPom: 22; NET: 15]

Bubble:

Gonzaga [20-6 (10-2); Quad 1: 1-5; KenPom: 20; NET: 23]
San Francisco [21-6 (10-2); Quad 1: 0-5; KenPom: 68; NET: 60]

Gonzaga doesn’t earn many points for beating 6-22 Pacific They won’t earn many by beating 9-19 Portland., either. The key to their tournament lock (which isn’t too far off, to be honest) is a 3-game stretch against Santa Clara, San Francisco, and St. Mary’s to close out their season. After that, a date with San Francisco again could await in the conference tournament semi-finals.
San Francisco has two more chances at a Quad 1 win (St. Mary’s (road) and Gonzaga). It’s hard to justify them now, but winning those games and getting to the conference championship would make it interesting.

WAC

Bubble:

Grand Canyon [24-2 (14-1); Quad 1: 1-0; KenPom: 58; NET: 48]

Lumped with McNeese and James Madison, Grand Canyon plays in the 14th-ranked conference. Their Quad 1 win was over San Diego State. Both the KenPom and the NET ranks them better than the other two, and it is hard to disagree with that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

1. UConn (24-2) (2) – Marquette is a Final Four contender. UConn beat them by 28.
2. Houston (22-3) (3) – Their 82-point effort on Saturday was the first time this season they scored 80+ points against an NCAA Tournament contender (Texas).
3. Purdue (23-3) (1) – A 4-point road loss to Ohio State doesn’t crush a resume that includes the #1 non-conference schedule (11-0 in those games).
4. Tennessee (19-6) (4) – The Volunteers have played one bad game all year (85-69 road loss to Texas A&M).
5. Arizona (20-5) (7) – One of four teams in the Top 15 in adjusted offense and defense.
6. Iowa State (20-5) (9) – 7-1 in last eight games (TCU (2x), Kansas State, Kansas, Baylor (loss), Texas, Cincinnati, Texas Tech). That’s a gauntlet.
7. Baylor (19-6) (13) – This offense-first squad ends their season with six games against probable NCAA Tournament teams.
8. Auburn (20-6) (10) – Destroyed South Carolina (40!). Followed that up with an 11-point loss to Kentucky.
9. Marquette (19-6) (5) – How do we rank a team that won eight straight games, only to lose to UConn by 28? I think dropping them four spots is enough.
10. Kansas (20-6) (8) – The Jayhawks need to get back on track as they are only 7-5 in their last 12 games.
11. North Carolina (20-6) (6) – After surging to the ACC lead, the Tar Heels are only 3-3, including losses to non-tournament teams Georgia Tech and Syracuse.
12. Duke (20-5) (12) – Right back in the conference race. Can they beat both Miami and Wake Forest on the road this week?
13. Illinois (19-6) (11) – A lot can still happen, but the March 5th game against Purdue could have regular-season title implications.
14. Creighton (19-7) (15) – Can they slay the UConn beast at home this week?
15. Alabama (18-7) (16) – Eighr games with 100+ points, including a 100-75 thumping of Texas A&M on Saturday.
16. Saint Mary’s (21-6) (17) – No team other than Gonzaga has won the outright WCC title since 2012 (St. Mary’s). Technically, the Gaels won the title in 2016, as both teams were 15-3 but St. Mary’s swept Gonzaga. The last time a team other than St. Mary’s or Gonzaga won the outright conference title was in 2000 (Pepperdine).
17. San Diego State (20-6) (21) – Back-to-back home wins over Colorado State and New Mexico.
18.  BYU (18-7) (14) – A slog as of late, but they have banked enough quality wins while suffering zero bad losses.
19. Dayton (21-4) (23) – The Flyers still haven’t lost outside of Quad 1 (2-4 within Quad 1).
20. Kentucky (18-7) (24) – A huge double-digit road win over Auburn.
21. Colorado State (20-6) (20) – 5-1 in their last six games. The Rams crushed Utah State by 20 on Saturday.
22. Michigan State (17-9) (NR) – It was only Penn State and Michigan, but the Spartans earned two much-needed road wins last week.
23. Washington State (20-6) (NR) – Seven straight wins and 10-1 in their last 11 games (including a win over Arizona)
24. New Mexico (20-6) (NR) – New Mexico is 5-4 on the road, but the conquest over Nevada was their first one of significance.
25. Texas Tech (18-7) (NR) – The Red Raiders mauled Kansas by 29 before hanging tough on the road against Iowa State.

Dropped Out:

South Carolina (21-5) (18) – Banking all those wins will be helpful come Selection Sunday, but losing by 40 to Auburn and one (at home) against LSU are damaging.
Wisconsin (17-9) (19) – Many of their recent losses are “flip a coin” types, and the Badgers have six Quad 1 wins in the bank.
Florida Atlantic (20-6) (22) – A lot of quality in their resume, but the Owls are in trouble when it comes to the regular-season AAC title.
Indiana State (22-5) (25) – I figured Southern Illinois had “trap game” potential. What I didn’t figure was that they would lose to Illinois State at home.

Just Missed:

Grand Canyon (24-2) – With Indiana State falling, the Lopes may be the new “mid-market” obsession (if they weren’t already).
Gonzaga (20-6) – Winning the games they are supposed to win, which is good enough for now.
Utah State (21-5)/Boise State (17-8)/Nevada (20-6) – I have three Mountain West teams ranked with three under consideration. The conference is bunched up to the point where I don’t know how the committee can leave any of them out.

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games of Friday, 2/16

ACC

In: 
North Carolina [19-6 (11-3), Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 11]
Duke [19-5 (10-3), Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 17]

Bubble:
Clemson [17-7 (7-6); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 25]
Wake Forest [16-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 0-4; NET: 37]
Virginia [19-6 (10-4); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 41]
Pittsburgh [16-8 (7-6); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 54]
Virginia Tech [14-10 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 61]

Clemson is close to lock status and is closer to being a Sweet 16 seed than to being on the outside looking in. Their remaining schedule includes zero games against North Carolina, Duke, or Virginia. The Tigers simply need to avoid a string of bad losses.
I can’t get around Wake Forest‘s lack of Quad 1 wins. At some point, you have to beat the best of the best, and the Demon Deacons have yet to do that. There are still opportunities remaining on their schedule.
Virginia is the only team that can spoil the North Carolina/Duke regular-season champion party. Their game against Wake Forest on Saturday has major bubble implications.
Pittsburgh‘s four-game surge (which includes wins over Wake Forest and Virginia (road)) places them squarely in the bubble picture. Don’t you dare lose your Saturday home game against Louisville. By the way, the Panthers are hurt by a non-conference schedule that was one of the worst in the country.
Virginia Tech is in trouble but there is a way out: Their next three games are against North Carolina (road), Virginia, and Pittsburgh (road).

American Athletic

In:
None.

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [20-5 (10-2); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 29]
SMU [17-7 (9-3); Quad 1: 0-2; NET: 40]
Memphis [18-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 80]

Florida Atlantic has the tough schedule and the impressive wins (Butler, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, and Arizona all on neutral courts) to place them in a good spot. Their Quad 4 loss to Florida-Gulf Coast and Quad 3 loss to Bryant stand out, but would the committee leave them out for those losses alone? Seems doubtful.
SMU has a clean resume (13-1 in Quad 3/4) but hasn’t earned that coveted Quad 1 win. Furthermore, their Thursday game at Florida Atlantic is their last shot at earning one.
Memphis has a worse NET than North Texas (73) but is 5-5 in Quad 1/2 while North Texas is 1-7 in similar games. Regardless, neither team is likely at this point.

South Florida leads the conference race at 11-1 and has ten straight wins. They aren’t on my tournament bubble because of their #100 NET ranking. and two Quad 4 losses. The Bulls are kicking themselves over their 2-4 start.

Atlantic 10

Bubble:
Dayton [20-4 (10-2), Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 19]

Dayton hasn’t stumbled this year (12-0 in Quad 3/4) and has probably done enough to get into the tournament.

Big 12

In:
Houston [21-3 (8-3), Quad 1: 8-3; NET: 1]
Iowa State [19-5 (8-3); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 8]
BYU [18-6 (6-5), Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 9]
Baylor [17-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 12]
Kansas [19-6 (7-5); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 16]

Bubble:
Texas Tech [18-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 26]
Texas [16-8 (5-6); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 31]
Oklahoma [18-7 (6-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 33]
Cincinnati [15-9 (4-7); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 38]
TCU [17-7 (6-5); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 39]
UCF [13-10 (4-7); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 66]
Kansas State [15-9 (5-6); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 77]

A conference with 14 members having 12 teams with tournament aspirations is crazy. You can still draw a line underneath TCU above, but I can’t completely cross off UCF or Kansas State as of now.

Texas Tech scored a big win over Kansas on Monday. Can they follow that up with a win at Iowa State? Because, if they do, they likely lock themselves in.
Texas is 2-3 in his last five games with a crazy schedule upcoming (Houston (road), Kansas State, Kansas (road), Texas Tech (road)). A free-fall is not impossible.
Oklahoma is 3-4 in their last seven games though two of the wins are over Kansas State (road) and BYU. Three of their next four games are against Kansas, Iowa State (road), and Houston.
Cincinnati has a solid NET to fall back on. The Bearcats lost back-to-back home games to Houston and Iowa State and are 2-5 in their last seven games. How much relief do they feel over pulling out that early-season game against Howard in overtime? That would have been a bad Quad 4 loss.
TCU has back-to-back road games against Kansas State and Texas Tech coming up. The committee *will* hold their terrible non-conference schedule against them. There is no way around that. Hence, they have to continue to add on big conference wins to feel safe.
UCF has banked a handful of solid wins but the Knights are only 1-6 in the toughest of Quad 1 games.
Kansas State started a tough stretch of games with a 1-point loss to Texas Tech and a 4-point win over Baylor. Since then, they are 2-5 (though one of the wins was over Kansas). Beat TCU on Saturday and Texas on Tuesday and we can start talking again. Currently, they are behind UC-Irvine according to NET, so that tells you something.

Big East

In:
UConn [23-2 (13-1); Quad 1: 8-2; NET: 4]
Marquette [19-5 (10-3); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 10]
Creighton [18-7 (9-5); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 18]

Bubble:
Villanova [14-11 (7-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 34]
Saint John’s [14-11 (6-8); Quad 1: 2-9; NET: 46]
Butler [16-9 (7-7); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 49]
Xavier [13-12 (7-7); Quad 1: 2-9; NET: 55]
Providence [16-9 (7-7); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 56]
Seton Hall [16-9 (9-5); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 68]

The Big East has to be disappointed in their overall performance. The conference is ranked 5th according to NET, with only the Pac-12 below them amongst the power conferences.

Villanova is only 2-3 in Quad 3 games and is relying heavily on their Battle 4 Atlantis championship. Their remaining schedule offers up some opportunities, but they could easily enter the Big East Tournament with a 16-15 type of record.
Saint John‘s playing 11 Quad 1 games is impressive – but you must win more than two of them. The Red Storm have only two road wins this season, one of which was over West Virginia. Simply beating their remaining weak opponents (Georgetown twice and DePaul) won’t be nearly enough.
Butler has played in 12 Quad 1 games with four wins while not losing one game in Quad 3/4 (8-0). The committee will like the road wins over Marquette and Creighton. Can they complete a season sweep of Creighton on Sautrday?
Xavier has a decent NET but is in danger of falling to .500 or below heading into the Big East Tournament. That would knock them out, barring a strong showing in said tournament. I applaud tough schedules (7th best non-conference) but you have to stack wins.
Providence hasn’t played one Quad 3 game this season, which is more of an interesting tidbit than anything (the Friars are 9-0 in Quad 4). They have road games against Xavier and Marquette coming up.
Seton Hall has nine conference victories and four Quad 1 wins. If Rutgers keeps winning, their loss to the Scarlett Knights has the potential to rise into Quad 2 territory, which will help. What will help more? Surviving their upcoming gauntlet (Saint John’s (road), Butler, Creighton (road), UConn (road), and Villanova). Going 2-3 in those games + defeating DePaul will place them at 19-12 (12-8) heading into the conference tournament. Easier said than done, but I believe that is their bare minimum.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [23-2 (12-2); Quad 1: 9-2; NET: 2]
Illinois [18-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 13]
Wisconsin [17-8 (9-5); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 20]

Bubble:
Michigan State [16-9 (8-6); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 21]
Nebraska [17-8 (7-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 53]
Northwestern [17-8 (8-6); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 59]

Purdue has this conference wrapped up.

Michigan State could slide into the “in” category soon. Their NET is too strong to ignore regardless of any warts (and there aren’t many, given that they are 7-9 in Quad 1/2 and unbeaten beyond that)
Nebraska‘s poor non-conference schedule is catching up to them. Their resume is annoying and the rest of their schedule doesn’t offer Quad 1 opportunities. Hence, they must go 5-1 if not 6-0.
Northwestern played an even worse non-conference slate than Nebraska, but one difference is that they defeated Dayton. The Wildcats were so close to sweeping Purdue. Like Nebraska, a strong finish is a necessity.

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [22-4 (13-2); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 28]
Drake [21-5 (12-3); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 51]

Why don’t I lock in teams like Indiana State? Because a clean resume can turn dirty with one bad conference loss. That happened to them on Tuesday when they lost a Quad 4 game against Illinois State. Their NET is still strong but that is likely the last big hit they can take with five regular season games remaining.
Drake hangs around on the fringes of the bubble, though their three Quad 3 losses will continue to haunt them. Can a trip to the conference championship be enough? Maybe, if they face Indiana State in that game.

Mountain West

In:
San Diego State [20-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 15]

Bubble:
New Mexico [20-6 (8-5); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 23]
Utah State [21-4 (9-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 27]
Colorado State [19-6 (7-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 30]
Boise State [16-8 (7-4); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 45]
Nevada [19-6 (6-5); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 47]
UNLV [14-9 (7-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 90]

It’s time to lock in San Diego State. Going on an extended winning streak in the Mountain West is hard, but I can’t imagine the Aztecs missing out at this point.

New Mexico took home an impressive road win over Nevada earlier in the week but lost on the road to San Diego State on Friday. Their big blemish is being swept by UNLV.
Utah State hasn’t lost in Quad 3/4 this season (12-0) and is an impressive 5-1 in Quad 2. While they lost a few games recently (San Diego State, Nevada), they rebounded to defeat Boise State. I circle three upcoming games (Fresno State (road), Air Force, San Jose State (road)) because losing those games would be their only ticket out of the NCAA Tournament.
Colorado State has a lot going for them: A strong non-conference slate and a 7-5 Quad 1/2 record. Their big black mark is their road loss (in overtime) to Wyoming.
Boise State has five Quad 1 wins, which is impossible to ignore. Equally impossible to ignore is a strong non-conference schedule with a neutral court win over St. Mary’s. The Broncos are 4-3 against likely/bubble NCAA Tournament teams within the conference.
Nevada is also the proud owner of five Quad 1 wins. Their non-conference schedule wasn’t nearly as strong as Boise State’s, even with a tournament title (Diamond Head Classic, where they defeated TCU in the semifinals). They couldn’t beat New Mexico this year but have wins over San Diego State, Utah State, and Colorado State.
UNLV is not really a bubble team but they merit a scrub based on four Quad 1 wins with the opportunity for more. The Rebels are on a five-game winning streak, though only the win over New Mexico (on the road) was impactful.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [19-5 (10-3); Quad 1: 7-3; NET: 3]

Bubble:
Washington State [19-6 (10-4); Quad 1: 4-3; NET: 36]
Colorado [16-9 (7-7); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 42]
Utah [15-10 (6-8); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 48]
Oregon [16-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 63]

Arizona continues to push for a #1 seed, while four teams scramble for 1-3 additional bids.

Washington State is the only threat to Arizona’s Pac-12 title dreams. The Cougars have six straight wins and have a chance to complete a season sweep of Arizona on Thursday. Win that road contest and they lock themselves in.
Colorado doesn’t have a bad loss but Quad 1 wins have been hard to come by. UCLA is making some noise late, but the Buffaloes road loss to the Bruins didn’t help their cause. The committee will not like the 1-7 road record.
Utah had some momentum going and nearly knocked off Arizona (overtime loss). However, they have since lost to Arizona State (dreadful home loss) and USC. That doesn’t cut it.
Oregon is 1-4 against Colorado, Utah, Washington State, and Arizona. Looking ahead a few weeks, they close their season with Arizona (road), Colorado, and Utah. The Ducks may be in a position where they need to sweep those games.

SEC

In:
Alabama [17-7 (9-2); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 5]
Auburn [20-5 (9-3); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 6]
Tennessee [18-6 (8-3), Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 7]

Bubble:
Kentucky [17-7 (7-4); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 24]
Florida [17-7 (7-4); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 32]
Mississippi State [16-8 (5-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 35]
Texas A&M [15-9 (6-5); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 43]
South Carolina [21-4 (9-3); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 50]
Ole Miss [18-6 (5-6); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 62]

The top three schools in this conference stay strong in the top ten, while the rest try to move away from the pack.

Kentucky losing to Gonzaga hurt their shot to lock themselves into the tournament. They followed that up with a win over struggling Ole Miss. What will they do on the road against Auburn on Saturday?
Florida has snuck under the radar most of the season, and it is easy to see why. They have zero losses outside Quad 1 but have only two Quad 1 wins. The Gators need to keep their resume clean (don’t lose to Georgia on Saturday) while picking up a few more impressive wins along the way. They still play Alabama twice.
Mississippi State has losses in Quad 3 and Quad 4 and hasn’t been great against the other strong SEC schools (2-6). They are only 1-6 on the road (6-0 on neutral courts). The Bulldogs did defeat Tennessee and Auburn, however.
Texas A&M won three straight games, including conquests of Florida and Tennessee. They followed up those wins with a loss…at Vanderbilt? In a big conference, that is “only” a Quad 3 loss, but it is not a good look. Logic says they will beat Alabama on Saturday.
South Carolina has a big record in a big conference but the computers are not in love. Their non-conference schedule (285th) is one reason for that but the Gamecocks have several nice wins (most notably a road win over Tennessee). Despite the NET, I see them as a probable NCAA Tournament squad, but they can’t be losing by 40 – even if it was a road game against Auburn.
Ole Miss looks dead. The Rebels have three straight losses and their non-conference win over Memphis has lost steam. They must stop the bleeding against Missouri on Saturday.

Southland

Bubble:

McNeese [22-3 (11-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 58]

It’s the same story every time I write this – win out and lose in the conference title game and maybe your resume is looked at. Their season opening win at VCU has looked better lately (it represents their Quad 1 win)

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [23-3 (10-3); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 52]

The Dukes have done their job lately, including a nice win over Akron in the MAC-SBC Challenge last Saturday. Their 2-OT win over Kent State earlier this year was supposed to be a decent resume booster but Kent State hasn’t played well.

West Coast

In:

St. Mary’s [21-6 (12-0); Quad 1: 4-2; NET: 14]

Bubble:

Gonzaga [19-6 (9-2); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 22]
San Francisco [20-6 (9-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 65]

There’s something wrong with the world if St. Mary’s doesn’t get in at this point.

Gonzaga needed that win over Kentucky but has to do more to secure their spot. Stay away from a devastating loss and they should be OK. They close their season against Santa Clara, San Francisco (road), and St. Mary’s (road)
San Francisco‘s season is nothing but a bunch of annoying losses and 18-0 record in Quad 3/4 games. It is hard to make a case when your best win is a neutral court conquest of Minnesota.

WAC

Bubble:

Grand Canyon [23-2 (13-1); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 44]

Simply put: Don’t lose, let the committee be impressed by the San Diego State win, and see what happens. This squad deserves to show what they can do in the NCAA Tournament but the margin for error is very small.

 

 

 

 

 

 

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games of Monday, 2/12.

ACC

In: 
North Carolina [19-5 (11-2), Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 10]
Duke [19-5 (10-3), Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 16]

Bubble:
Clemson [16-7 (6-6); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 30]
Virginia [19-5 (10-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 32]
Wake Forest [16-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 0-4; NET: 39]
Pittsburgh [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 60]
Virginia Tech [13-10 (5-7); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 63]

The ACC looks like a 4-5 bid league.
Clemson is impressing on the road. In their last four road contests, they have wins over Florida State, North Carolina, and Syracuse to go along with a one-point loss to Duke. Remember that their non-conference schedule was one of the best in the country and they beat Boise State, Alabama (road), South Carolina, and TCU (neutral). Only a crash keeps them out.
Virginia’s impressive run landed them in the Top 25 this week. Their remaining schedule gives them opportunities to add more Quad 1 opportunities.
Wake Forest had a shot at a Quadrant 1 win on Monday but lost to Duke. The Demon Deacons are 5-4 in Quadrant 2, including a pair of wins that are right on the edge of Quadrant 1 (Florida, Virginia).
Pittsburgh is 3-6 in Quadrant 1/2 and 6-2 in Quadrant 3. That isn’t impressive, but they are 5-2 in road games.
Virginia Tech has three Quadrant 1 wins but their recent loss to Notre Dame was damaging. They are barely hanging on to relevance.

American Athletic

In:
None.

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [19-5 (9-2); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 27]
SMU [16-7 (8-3); Quad 1: 0-3; NET: 43]
Memphis [18-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-2; NET: 75]

Florida Atlantic escaped Wichita State with an overtime win, raising their record to 10-4 in road/neutral games. I don’t need to keep reminding you about some of their impressive non-conference conquests. The Owls will dance this year, but remember that their remaining conference schedule has land mines.
SMU is one of those land mines, and the Mustangs are desperate for a Quadrant 1 win. Unlike Wake Forest, SMU struggles in Quadrant 2 as well (1-3), which is why their decent NET may not earn them much consideration.
After losing four straight games to teams with a NET rating of 100+, Memphis has won three in a row against teams that meet the same criteria. The Tigers must sweep Florida Atlantic.

If you wonder about South Florida, they lead the conference and have won nine straight. However, they are 14-3 in Quad 3/Quad 4 with some brutal losses mixed in. Their NET is too high (103). Perhaps they can be looked into if they beat Florida Atlantic and SMU (both home games) down the stretch.

Atlantic 10

In:
None.

Bubble:
Dayton [19-4 (9-2), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 18]

What does Dayton need to do to lock in a bid? Avoid multiple bad losses. The Flyers are 8-4 in Quad 1/2 and haven’t lost a game outside of Quadrant 1. They scheduled well in the non-conference and won several resume boosters (SMU (road), Saint John’s (neutral), Cincinnati (neutral)). They’re close.

Big 12

In:
Houston [21-3 (8-3), Quad 1: 7-3; NET: 1]
BYU [17-6 (5-5), Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 8]
Iowa State [18-5 (7-3); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 9]
Baylor [16-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 12]
Kansas [19-6 (7-5); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 17]

Bubble:
Texas Tech [18-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 26]
Oklahoma [18-6 (6-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 31]
Texas [16-8 (5-6); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 34]
Cincinnati [15-8 (4-6); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 35]
TCU [17-7 (6-5); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 42]
UCF [13-9 (4-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 67]
Kansas State [15-9 (5-6); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 77]

Can the Big 12 receive ten bids? It isn’t only possible, it’s probable (at this point, I don’t think UCF/Kansas State will make it 11 or 12). However, the bubble squads aren’t perfect and the schedules are harsh.

Texas Tech annihilated Kansas on Monday night, earning a needed 4th Quadrant 1 win. They jumped significantly in the NET rankings as they continue to overcome a bad non-conference slate.
Oklahoma couldn’t afford to lose to in-state rival Oklahoma State. Luckily for the Sooners, they won by four. Their remaining schedule is crazy. Beyond the rematch with Oklahoma State, they play Baylor (road), Kansas, Iowa State (road), Houston, Cincinnati, and Texas (road). This is why I would bet on ten bids from this conference but wouldn’t put my life savings on it.
Texas plays a lot of tough road games down the stretch (Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, Baylor). So far, the Longhorns have played well on opposing courts (beat Cincinnati, Oklahoma, and TCU).
Cincinnati is nearing the end of an 11-game gauntlet with a 3-6 mark, including a loss to West Virginia. Iowa State and UCF (road) are the two remaining opponents before they get a 1-game breather against Oklahoma State.
TCU has zero excuses to play a schedule that ranks 341st in the non-conference. It’s embarrassing and their NCAA Tournament seed will (hopefully) reflect that. The Horned Frogs have played as many games in Quad 3/4 as they have played in Quad 1/2 (12).
If you don’t understand by now, the Big 12 schedule is the best asset that some bubble teams have. UCF and Kansas State are not tournament teams, but both will have plenty of opportunities to get into the conversation. Kansas State is only 1-5 in their last six games, but the win is over Kansas.

Big East

In:
UConn [22-2 (12-1); Quad 1: 8-1; NET: 4]
Marquette [18-5 (9-3); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 11]
Creighton [17-7 (8-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 15]

Bubble:
Villanova [13-11 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 41]
Saint John’s [14-10 (6-7); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 46]
Butler [16-8 (7-6); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 50]
Xavier [13-11 (7-6); Quad 1: 2-8; NET: 52]
Providence [15-9 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 58]
Seton Hall [15-9 (8-5); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 76]

The regular season chase is down to two teams, as UConn and Marquette have separated themselves from the pack. The two squads have yet to play this year. Those games (2/17, 3/6) are must-see.

As for everyone else, I don’t think the Big East is a 3-bid league, but nobody on the bubble is making this easy.

Villanova has three Quadrant 1 wins and three Quadrant 3 losses. Their win over Seton Hall on Sunday helps their argument, but they are 3-7 in their last ten games.
Saint John’s is in trouble. It feels like it was five years ago when they had a 6-1 stretch that included wins over fellow bubblers Xavier, Butler, Villanova, and Providence. The only loss was a 4-point road loss to UConn. The momentum wasn’t sustained.
Seton Hall‘s slump hurts Butler, as their home loss to the Pirates is now in Quadrant 3. The road wins over Marquette and Creighton will stand out as they select the field.
Xavier‘s late-season surge hit a minor speed bump in their loss to Creighton. Their home losses to Delaware and Oakland crush their resume, but both are safely outside Quadrant 4 at least.
Providence had a signature win over Marquette on December 19th. The Friars are 5-7 since. It hasn’t been an easy schedule, but you can’t just rely on schedule strength alone.
We have seen teams with elevated NET rankings get in, and Seton Hall‘s wins over UConn and Marquette are huge. However, you can’t be losing to Villanova by 26, even if it was a road game. If they can beat Creighton or UConn on the road, they will be in good shape. Good luck.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [22-2 (11-2); Quad 1: 8-2; NET: 2]
Illinois [17-6 (8-4); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 13]
Wisconsin [16-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 21]

Bubble:
Michigan State [15-9 (7-6); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 23]
Nebraska [17-8 (7-7); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 53]
Northwestern [17-7 (8-5); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 56]
Iowa [14-10 (6-7); Quad 1: 0-6; NET: 66]

I am not pulling Wisconsin from their “In” status, but they better wake up. The Badgers don’t have any bad losses (not even the Michigan loss qualifies) and are 10-8 in Quad 1/Quad 2. It will take a complete meltdown to make that stuff not matter.

Michigan State is two slots behind Wisconsin after their win over Illinois. The Spartans only have one road win this season (by two points over Maryland) and have back-to-back road contests against non-bubble teams Penn State and Michigan next. You don’t want to give the committee a reason to question your profile.
Nebraska is holding serve at home (15-1) but has struggled in road games (the only win is over Kansas State). Their remaining six games are against teams not projected to make the field, so the opportunity is there to fatten up their record.
Northwestern also lacks that big road win, but they did take Purdue to overtime in West Lafayette. That Quadrant 4 loss to Chicago State follows them around. Like Nebraska, their remaining schedule is light on NCAA Tournament squads, though they do play Iowa and Michigan State.
Iowa is close to death, but their best quality is their tough schedule. They need the Quad 1 wins, so having games remaining with Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois (2), and Northwestern gives them hope for a late-season surge.

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [22-3 (13-1); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 20]
Drake [20-5 (11-3); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 51]

With a NET of 20, it will be tough for the committee to keep Indiana State off the bracket. That said, it is a mid-major conference, where losses can quickly destroy your NET. Hence, impossible to lock them in.
Drake went into Bradley’s home gym on Saturday and beat them by seven. That earned them an important third Quadrant 1 win, but they do have a pair of Quadrant 3 losses. If the Bulldogs want to be taken seriously, they need to sweep their remaining games and get to the conference tournament final.
Bradley is off my list after back-to-back home losses, one of which was to Evansville (Quadrant 4).

Mountain West

Bubble:
San Diego State [18-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 19]
New Mexico [19-5 (7-4); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 22]
Colorado State [19-5 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 28]
Utah State [20-4 (8-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 29]
Nevada [19-5 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 47]
Boise State [16-8 (7-4); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 48]
UNLV [13-9 (6-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 87]

The top four teams have the best NET. The next three teams have the most Quadrant 1 wins. This nutty conference won’t get seven bids. Six is a stretch but not impossible.

San Diego State hasn’t lost outside of Quadrant 1 and is 7-6 in Quadrant 1/Quadrant 2. Other than Utah State, their toughest remaining games are at home. They should be able to get to the finish line.
New Mexico lost a home game to UNLV on Saturday and now must travel to play Nevada and San Diego State. Their status as an NCAA Tournament team is solid enough to overcome losses there.
Colorado State is on a 4-game winning streak which includes wins over San Diego State and Boise State. The Rams have been up-and-down following their sizzling 9-0 start but may be steadying the ship.
Utah State, meanwhile, has struggled lately (3-3 in their last six games). They don’t want to lose to Wyoming this week (road game) leading into back-to-back showdowns with Colorado State and San Diego State.
Nevada has banked five impressive Quadrant 1 wins. The Wolf Pack are dinged because of their Quadrant 3 loss not-so-great out-of-conference slate. Can they add a third straight Quadrant 1 win on Tuesday night (New Mexico)?
Boise State has played an impressive 11 Quadrant 1 games, winning five of them. They played a strong out-of-conference schedule, defeating St. Mary’s along the way. Did I mention road conference wins over Nevada and New Mexico? All that said, the Broncos have back-to-back road losses to Colorado State and Utah State by a combined 32 points.
UNLV is not a bubble team at this juncture, even with those four Quadrant 1 wins. While they played a strong non-conference schedule, they own three Quadrant 4 losses. The Rebels will need to win most of their remaining Quadrant 1 games to even get their resume in the room.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [19-5 (10-3); Quad 1: 7-3; NET: 3]

Bubble:
Colorado [16-8 (7-6); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 38]
Washington State [18-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 4-3; NET: 40]
Utah [15-9 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 49]
Oregon [16-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 62]

Washington’s NET is not far off from Oregon’s, but I don’t yet see them as a bubble team. Can they beat Arizona and Washington State (both on the road) down the stretch?

Colorado is stuck on one Quad 1 victory (Washington on the road) but they are 5-3 in Quad 2. The Buffaloes lost both games to Arizona (by a combined 67 points!) and own only one road victory. Essentially, their resume is a solid non-conference schedule and zero bad losses.
Washington State‘s 5-game winning streak includes wins over Utah, Colorado, Washington (road), and Oregon (road). Additionally, the Cougars beat Arizona earlier this season. The rest of their schedule isn’t difficult, beyond playing Arizona on the road. I consider their resume as better than Colorado’s.
Utah followed up their 3-overtime loss to Arizona with a bad loss against Arizona State. Five of their last seven games are on the road, where the Utes are 1-5.
Oregon is 1-5 against potential NCAA Tournament teams (road win over Washington State). A lot of work is needed.

SEC

In:
Alabama [17-7 (9-2); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 5]
Tennessee [17-6 (7-3), Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 6]
Auburn [19-5 (8-3); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 7]

Bubble:
Kentucky [16-7 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 25]
Florida [16-7 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 33]
Mississippi State [16-8 (5-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 36]
Texas A&M [15-8 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 37]
South Carolina [21-3 (9-2); Quad 1: 3-2; NET: 45]
Ole Miss [18-5 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 59]

Kentucky has lost three straight home games and their remaining schedule isn’t easy. It is hard to imagine them being left out, but the bleeding must stop.
Florida is 14-0 in non-Quad 1 games and has recent victories over Mississippi State, Kentucky (road), and Auburn. The Gators have both games against Alabama as they try to better their Quad 1 resume.
Mississippi State won their first road game on Saturday, but it was over Missouri. The Bulldogs will continue to rely on their 6-0 neutral court mark. Their remaining schedule is tough.
Texas A&M has what many teams envy: Five Quad 1 wins. The Aggies mauled Tennesse by 16 on Saturday.
South Carolina looks like a lock on paper. It is February 13th and the Gamecocks lead the SEC and have 21 wins. Additionally, they are 5-2 on the road including a win over Tennessee. A bad non-conference schedule and a home loss to Georiga drag them down.
Ole Miss has work to do, and it starts tonight against Kentucky. After a home game against Missouri, they have a gauntlet against Mississippi State (road), South Carolina, and Alabama to get through.

Southland

Bubble:

McNeese [22-3 (11-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 57]

McNeese’s NET has jumped. They need to win out and maybe they would get consideration if they lost in the conference title game. The Cowboys are 3-2 in Quad 1/2, with every game on the road.

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [22-3 (9-3); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 54]

I have removed Appalachian State from consideration. As for James Madison, their resume is all about beating Michigan State, as their non-conference schedule beyond the Spartans was not good.

West Coast

Bubble:

St. Mary’s [20-6 (11-0); Quad 1: 4-2; NET: 14]
Gonzaga [18-6 (8-2); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 24]
San Francisco [20-6 (9-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 65]

What more does St. Mary’s need to do? Nothing. It’s as close to a lock as a mid-major can be.
Gonzaga desperately needed a Quad 1 win and finally earned it at Kentucky. The Bulldogs have work to do – namely, avoid big upsets and beat San Francisco and St. Mary’s on the road.
San Francisco is taking care of business lately (five straight wins), but only the victory over Santa Clara is somewhat solid. The Dons still have a road game against St. Mary’s remaining. If the conference tournament goes as currently planned, they would get Gonzaga in the semi-finals.

WAC

Bubble:

Grand Canyon [22-2 (12-1); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 44]

The WAC is the nation’s 14th strongest conference, which isn’t so bad when you have 33 conferences. The Lopes have to win their remaining seven conference games to even have a shot at an at-large bid. We shouldn’t forget that they played a decent non-conference schedule that included wins over San Francisco and San Diego State + a 7-point loss to South Carolina that looks stronger by the day. If they lose in the conference tournament, they will be a much-talked-about squad by mid-major enjoyers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don’t have any thoughts this week, so I will get straight to the Top 25:

1. Purdue (22-2) (1) – In addition to their inside play, the Boilermakers are third in the country in 3-point percentage (40%).
2. UConn (22-2) (2) – The tiebreaker between the Huskies and Boilermakers is Quad 4 wins (Purdue is 3-0 while UConn is 8-0)
3. Houston (21-3) (5) – The Cougars lead the nation with an 18.9 average margin of victory.
4. Tennessee (17-6) (3) – Their loss to Texas A&M was their first double-digit loss this season.
5. Marquette (18-5) (6) – Their 7-game winning streak includes five by double digits.
6. North Carolina (19-5) (4) – Their 2-2 stretch has allowed Virginia and Duke to hang around in the conference title race.
7. Arizona (19-5) (8) – The Wildcats want the top seed in the West. They are 7-3 in Quad 1 and are ranked #3 in the NET and #4 in the KenPom.
8. Kansas (19-5) (7) – The Jayhawks are 6-4 in their last ten games. One of the wins was a double-digit effort over Houston, though.
9. Iowa State (18-5) (13) – It’s all about defense for the Cyclones (3rd in adjusted defense/5th in points allowed per game)
10. Auburn (19-5) (9) – The Tigers had zero Quadrant 1 wins for much of the season but now have two.
11. Illinois (17-6) (10) – The Fighting Illini fell 2.5 games behind Purdue this week, which likely ends their dream of a regular-season conference championship.
12. Duke (18-5) (17) – It isn’t always pretty, but the Blue Devils are 13-2 in their last 15 games.
13. Baylor (17-6) (14) – A 3-point loss at Kansas is no reason for concern. Their offense is strong (4th in 3-point percentage, for example) but the defense is shaky.
14. BYU (17-6) (15) – The Cougars are solid, but own only two road wins (UCF and West Virginia). That said, they are in every game they play.
15. Creighton (17-7) (11) – The Blue Jays are better than the underperforming middle of the Big East but haven’t sustained much momentum.
16. Alabama (17-7) (16) – Their motto is “catch us if you can” – Auburn did (99-81), LSU didn’t (109-92).
17. Saint Mary’s (20-6) (21) – The Gaels play slow and aren’t efficient offensively. Defense? No team has scored 80+ on them this season.
18. South Carolina (21-3) (23) – The computers remain skeptical, but the Gamecocks keep winning.
19. Wisconsin (16-8) (12) – After three close losses in a row, the Badgers hit rock bottom in a 22-point loss to Rutgers—time to wake up.
20. Colorado State (19-5) (NR) – It’s the story of the Mountain West – every week, you can interchange who the best team in the conference is.
21. San Diego State (18-6) (24) – While they have struggled against the top of the conference in road contests, the games are close.
22. Florida Atlantic (19-5) (19) – They came within a whisker of back-to-back losses to UAB and Wichita State. They lost the former in OT but won the latter in OT.
23. Dayton (19-4) (22) – No bad losses and a strong schedule keep them ranked. The rest of the schedule isn’t so good, so they need to take advantage of that.
24. Kentucky (16-7) (18) – Their defense is bad and there may not be enough time left to fix it.
25. Indiana State (22-3) (NR) – The beasts of the Missouri Valley lack a huge win and a bad loss. Very clean resume that needs to stay that way for at-large consideration.

Dropped Out:

New Mexico (19-5) (20) – They are 1-2 in their last two games, with both losses at home.
Utah State (20-4) (25) – Honestly, it came down to Indiana State/New Mexico/Utah State for that #25 slot.

Just Missed:

Gonzaga (18-6) – The Zags had zero Quadrant 1 wins before defeating Kentucky on the road this weekend.
Virginia (19-5) – We have been waiting for a team other than Duke/North Carolina/Clemson to establish themselves as an NCAA Tournament contender. The Cavaliers are up to #32 in the NET.
Nevada (19-5) – Recent wins over Utah State and San Diego State. Can they complete the trifecta against New Mexico on Tuesday?

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games of Friday, 2/9.

ACC

In: 
North Carolina [18-5 (10-2), Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 10]
Duke [17-5 (8-3), Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 20]

Bubble:
Clemson [15-7 (5-6); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 29]
Wake Forest [15-7 (7-4); Quad 1: 0-3; NET: 33]
Virginia [18-5 (9-3); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 34]
Virginia Tech [13-9 (5-6); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 54]
Pittsburgh [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 61]

North Carolina beat Duke but is 1-2 in their last three games, opening up the conference title race…
Clemson is 4-4 in road games with wins over Alabama and North Carolina. The Tigers are 3-0 in neutral court games, including a win over TCU. This is gold for the committee.
Wake Forest has six Quadrant 2 wins but has a 0-3 Quadrant 1 record. The Demon Deacons have Duke and Virginia upcoming.
Virginia is one game behind North Carolina thanks to a 7-game winning streak. The road win over Clemson helps, but I still need to see more.
Ten Quadrant 1 games bolster Virginia Tech’s resume, though they are only 3-7. Neutral court wins over Boise State and Iowa State stand out.
Pittsburgh is new to the list, as a 5-1 stretch that includes wins over Duke and Wake Forest warrants a look. They have more Quad 3 losses (2) than Quad 1 wins (1).

American Athletic

In:
None.

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [18-5 (8-2); Quad 1: 2-1; NET: 28]
SMU [15-7 (7-3); Quad 1: 0-2; NET: 45]
Memphis [17-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 77]

Florida Atlantic didn’t do themselves any favors with their loss to UAB, and their NET is going in the wrong direction. The Owls are a game behind South Florida (not a bubble team) in the AAC but own two impressive non-conference neutral court wins (Butler, Virginia Tech). For now, those games are strong Quadrant 2 wins instead of weaker Quadrant 1 wins.
SMU‘s best win is a road conquest of Florida State. Their 2/22 game at Florida Atlantic will likely make or break the Mustangs.
Memphis stopped the bleeding with wins over Wichita State and Temple. The Tigers will need to do more than that. For example, sweeping Florida Atlantic later this season.

Atlantic 10

In:
None.

Bubble:
Dayton [19-4 (9-2), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 18]

Richmond‘s undefeated conference run came to an end, which also took them off my bubble. The Spiders lack a resume-boosting opportunity for the rest of the season, as they only played Dayton once. As for the Flyers, a NET of 16, three Quadrant 1 wins and a strong strength of schedule places them close to lock status. However, Friday night’s ugly loss to VCU exposed their vulnerability: They have little to gain but much to lose with their remaining schedule. Losing at VCU is a Quad 1 loss, so it won’t kill them. Some of their future games, however, can be damaging.

Big 12

In:
Houston [20-3 (7-3), Quad 1: 6-3; NET: 1]
BYU [16-6 (4-5), Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 8]
Iowa State [17-5 (6-3); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 9]
Kansas [17-5 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 12]
Baylor [16-5 (6-3); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 14]

Bubble:
Oklahoma [17-6 (5-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 27]
Cincinnati [15-7 (4-5); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 32]
TCU [16-6 (5-4); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 35]
Texas Tech [16-6 (5-4); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 37]
Texas [15-8 (4-6); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 39]
UCF [13-8 (4-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 66]
Kansas State [15-8 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 78]

Six teams have three or four conference losses in the rowdy Big 12, which is one of the most competitive and impressive conferences you will ever find…Recent losses to Texas, Texas Tech, and UCF were missing opportunities for Oklahoma. Did they remedy the damage with the win over BYU?
I am not sure what to think about Cincinnati. Here comes clarity, however: Back-to-back home games against Houston at Iowa State
Butler’s recent solid play has boosted Texas Tech‘s out-of-conference schedule, even though they lost to the Bulldogs in overtime. Wins over Villanova and Michigan in the Battle 4 Atlantis were supposed to be impressive resume boosters.
If I am offended by Texas Tech’s out-of-conference schedule, my eyes should be bleeding over TCU‘s. We have a situation where their resume would be better if they were 13-9 with a strong out-of-conference slate instead of 16-6 with one of the worst non-conference schedules in college basketball.
Texas has four Quad 1 wins, three of which have come on the road (TCU, Oklahoma, Cincinnati). As stated, the committee will drool over that.
UCF and Kansas State are new additions. UCF gains some trust with the three Quadrant 1 wins but owns an awful Quad 4 loss to Stenson. The rest of their schedule is predictably brutal. Kansas State enters the conversation with their win over Kansas. That win broke a 4-game losing streak. The Wildcats have two non-conference losses (USC and Miami) which didn’t seem to be resume killers at the time. However, both teams have underachieved.

Big East

In:
UConn [21-2 (11-1); Quad 1: 7-2; NET: 4]
Marquette [17-5 (8-3); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 11]
Creighton [16-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 19]

Bubble:
Saint John’s [14-9 (6-6); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 43]
Villanova [12-11 (5-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 48]
Xavier [13-10 (7-5); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 50]
Butler [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 51]
Providence [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 56]
Seton Hall [15-8 (8-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 67]

By now, I was thinking I would have at least five teams in the “In” column. Instead, the bubble is a jumbled mess. The Big East has not lived up to expectations.
Saint John‘s is running in quicksand. Their resume is clean beyond a home loss to Michigan, but they are 1-6 in Quadrant 1 conference games. For now, the win over Utah isn’t enough.
Villanova is only 1-6 in their last seven games and was swept by Saint John’s this season. A 5-2 finish gets them to 17-13 (10-9) heading into the conference tournament, where they may need to do more to get in.
Death, taxes, and Xavier making a run at an NCAA Tournament bid. The Musketeers have three straight wins and start a stretch of games against Creighton, Seton Hall, Providence, and Marquette. Can they at least split those games?
Butler was able to play UConn within nine on the road. The Bulldogs earned home wins over Marquette and Creighton plus a home non-conference victory over Texas Tech. Like with Xavier, we will learn more soon as they play a 6-game gauntlet against Providence, Marquette, Creighton, Villanova, Seton Hall, and Saint John’s.
Providence has only one impressive road win (Seton Hall), which will be held against them in the committee room. They are 6-8 in Quadrant 1/2. The lack of bad losses helps keep them afloat.
Seton Hall couldn’t help themselves in their last two games, but they could have severely hurt themselves. They took care of business by beating DePaul and Georgetown.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [21-2 (10-2); Quad 1: 8-2; NET: 2]
Illinois [17-5 (8-3); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 13]
Wisconsin [16-7 (8-4); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 15]

Bubble:
Michigan State [14-9 (6-6); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 24]
Northwestern [16-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 55]
Nebraska [16-8 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 57]
Iowa [13-10 (5-7); Quad 1: 0-6; NET: 64]

The top three should feel safe, even if Wisconsin lost to Michigan. 17 of their 23 games are in Quadrant 1/2 and they own a 10-7 mark in those games.
Once you think Michigan State is putting everything together, they lose to Minnesota. The Spartans own a massive 24-point win over Baylor and a solid NET that is bolstered by a difficult schedule.
In recent weeks, Northwestern has had an overtime win over Illinois and an overtime loss to Purdue. Their final eight games are manageable, which is a double-edged sword as they likely want to win at least six of them to feel good about their resume.
In a key bubble matchup, Nebraska lost to Northwestern on the road, which followed their road overtime loss to Illinois. The Cornhuskers are 1-7 in true road games with none of those games within the Big Ten (Kansas State).
Iowa sticks around while I remove Maryland. The Buckeyes are hanging on by a string after their loss to Penn State. They must start winning some Quadrant 1 games and their two Quadrant 3 losses don’t help either.

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [21-3 (12-1); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 22]
Drake [18-5 (10-3); Quad 1: 2-1; NET: 53]
Bradley [16-7 (9-4); Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 59]

There is no question that Indiana State is likely the only team that will get serious consideration for an at-large. But I want to continue to evaluate two other squads.
Indiana State is doing what they need to do. Last Saturday, they avenged their earlier loss to Drake. Now for something equally tough: Winning their final seven games. The competition isn’t good so any loss can be damaging. I am looking closely at that February 17th road game against Southern Illinois.
Drake‘s neutral court win over Nevada recently moved into the Quadrant 1 bucket, which is a nice boost.
Bradley is 11-2 in their last 13 games. The key loss during this streak was an overtime loss to Indiana State. The Braves and Drake play each other twice down the stretch.

Mountain West

Bubble:
New Mexico [19-4 (7-3); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 17]
San Diego State [18-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 21]
Colorado State [19-5 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 26]
Utah State [19-4 (7-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 30]
Boise State [16-7 (7-3); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 40]
Nevada [19-5 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 46]

Can the Mountain West earn six bids? It isn’t impossible, though they will continue to eat each other. One team that isn’t listed (UNLV) has three Quadrant 1 wins but is predictably being weighed down by three Quadrant 4 losses.

New Mexico is 8-3 in road/neutral games and their current 6-1 stretch includes wins over San Diego State, Utah State, and Nevada. The Lobos are closing in on being a lock.
San Diego State played a strong non-conference slate and has kept their noses clean most of the year. One blemish is having a tough time winning road games against strong teams (Gonzaga being an exception).
Colorado State has won four in a row after a 2-4 stretch. Their next three games are San Diego State (road), Utah State (home), and New Mexico (road). These games will have major conference title and bubble ramifications.
Utah State will try to get back on track after back-to-back double-digit losses to San Diego State and Nevada. They need to prevent falling into a trap when they play road games against Wyoming, Fresno State, and San Jose State down the stretch.
You cannot overlook a team with five Quadrant 1 wins, and two Mountain West squads have accomplished that. The first team is Boise State. The Broncos played a tough non-conference schedule. After their game at Utah State on Saturday, they go through a four-game stretch where they play Fresno State, San Jose State, Wyoming, and Air Force. They need to sweep those games.
Nevada, the other squad with five Quad 1 wins, beat Utah State and San Diego State back-to-back this week. The Wolf Pack play their third consecutive big game against New Mexico on Tuesday. Not many teams in the country have improved their stock more recently.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [18-5 (9-3); Quad 1: 6-3; NET: 3]

Bubble:
Colorado [16-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 1-4; NET: 31]
Utah [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 36]
Washington State [17-6 (8-4); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 41]
Oregon [16-7 (8-4); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 58]

While Arizona plays for a #1 seed out West, the rest of the conference is fighting for crumbs.
Colorado owns a top 75 out-of-conference schedule but their best wins were neutral-court triumphs over Richmond and Miami. The Buffaloes are 1-6 on the road, with their lone win over Washington. That said, they are 13-0 with a huge potential resume booster against Arizona on Saturday.
Utah also has only one road win, though it is an impressive victory against St. Mary’s. Their big chance at boosting their resume resulted in a 3-overtime home loss to Arizona on Thursday. Their remaining schedule offers an opportunity to end the regular season with a gaudy record.
Washington State is 4-3 in conference road games. They will get a shot at another one against Oregon on Saturday.
Speaking of Oregon, they cannot afford to lose that game. The winner will stay in the regular-season conference title race. Like Washington State, the Ducks own four road wins (though one of them was a random non-conference game against Florida A&M). One of their road wins was over Washington State earlier this season.

SEC

In:
Tennessee [17-5 (7-2), Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 5]
Alabama [16-7 (8-2); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 6]
Auburn [19-4 (8-2); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 7]

Bubble:
Kentucky [16-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 23]
Florida [15-7 (5-4); Quad 1: 1-7; NET: 39]
South Carolina [20-3 (8-2); Quad 1: 3-2; NET: 42]
Mississippi State [15-8 (4-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 44]
Texas A&M [14-8 (5-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 47]
Ole Miss [18-5 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 60]

Auburn went from zero Quad 1 wins last weekend to two this weekend. As one small negative, their road loss to Appalachian State has slipped from Quadrant 1 to Quadrant 2.  Regardless, they are safely in.

Kentucky is 6-3 in road/neutral games, including a win over North Carolina. The Wildcats are 1-3 in their last four games as they welcome Gonzaga to their gym in a rare February non-conference game.
Florida was on a 4-game winning streak before their one-point loss to Texas A&M. The Gators don’t own a bad loss but there is nothing to brag about when you have a 1-7 record in Quadrant 1 games.
South Carolina is playing with a chip on their shoulder as they try to prove that their gaudy record isn’t a fluke. Their 6-game winning streak includes wins over Kentucky, Tennessee (road), Georgia (road), and Ole Miss. The rest of their schedule is rough, but it’s nice to have 20 wins in your bank account heading into mid-February.
Mississippi State is 0-6 on the road but 6-0 on neutral courts. Their home wins include wins over Tennessee and Auburn. On neutral courts, they defeated fellow bubblers Northwestern and Washington State as they won the Hall of Fame Classic. It’s not a sexy or clean resume (they lost to Southern, after all), but it’s one that many teams would love to have.
Texas A&M went on the road early in the season to take on Ohio State and SMU and defeated both. Both wins bolster their Quad 1 record, which is why I implore all teams to schedule good teams in the non-conference. Ohio State and SMU may not even get to the NCAA Tournament, but the Quad 1 formula allows you to gain momentum by beating them on the road.
Ole Miss entered conference play with a 13-0 record and Top 25 ranking. Life hasn’t been as easy in the SEC, as three of their losses are by double digits. In their most recent outing, they did play a tough game at South Carolina. Now, it’s off to Kentucky for a big potential resume booster.

Southland

Bubble:

McNeese [20-3 (9-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 69]

How are all games intertwined? VCU’s win over Dayton on Friday helped McNeese, as their win over VCU is now a Quad 1 win. How long will that last? We’ll see as it is on the very bottom of Quad 1.
This can all be semantics, as their brutal loss at Southeastern Louisiana (Quad 4) was likely one of the final nails in the coffin.

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [21-3 (9-3); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 62]
Appalachian State [19-5 (10-2); Quad 1: 2-0; NET: 81]

James Madison is 21-1 against teams not named “Appalachian State” including a win over Michigan State. If they didn’t lose to Southern Miss and split with Appalachian State, their resume would be tempting. But it is fair to ask if a Sun Belt team with three conference losses deserves an at-large.
Appalachian State barely stays on the list after their road loss to Texas State. It is impressive to have a pair of Quad 1 wins, but they also own two Quadrant 4 losses.

West Coast

Bubble:

St. Mary’s [19-6 (10-0); Quad 1: 4-3; NET: 16]
Gonzaga [17-6 (8-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 25]
San Francisco [19-6 (8-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 63]

St. Mary’s owns 11 straight wins, including San Francisco and Gonzaga road conquests. They own a strong non-conference schedule, winning games against New Mexico and Colorado State (road). There are six games left on the schedule. Even if they lose at home to San Francisco and Gonzaga, they should feel comfortable if they win their other four games. Those four games are against Portland, Pepperdine (twice), and San Diego. No excuses for losing any of those games.
Gonzaga had a shot at a Quad 1 win but lost at home to St. Mary’s. The Bulldogs have three Quad 1 games left, all on the road: Kentucky, San Francisco, and St. Mary’s.
San Francisco has fallen short of earning that one big win all season. They will need to sweep the rest of their games if they want any chance to get in. Included in those six games are rematches with St. Mary’s and Gonzaga plus both games against Santa Clara. The road game should fall into Quadrant 2.

WAC

Bubble:

Grand Canyon [21-2 (11-1); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 49]

Grand Canyon’s only hope is sweeping their remaining eight games and getting to the conference final. They defeated San Diego State (home) and San Francisco (neutral) in the non-conference, with a loss to South Carolina (neutral) looking better by the day (the loss was by eight points). It’s a fun resume as their NET is right in line with bubble teams in bigger conferences, bolstered by a solid non-conference schedule and no bad losses (the loss to Seattle is in Quadrant 2, where the Lopes are 2-1)