College Basketball Thoughts/Top 25: 1/29/24

1. Are any mid-majors at-large contenders?

The answer is simplistic if you include the Mountain West as a mid-major conference: Of course, there will be at-large mid-major teams!

However, most basketball fans wouldn’t consider the Mountain West as a true mid-major. Amongst conferences that traditionally only receive one bid, you can look towards the Ivy League (Princeton) and Missouri Valley (Indiana State) as two possibilities. Early-season darling James Madison still owns a gaudy record (18-3) but has lost both of their games to in-conference rival Appalachian State (17-4, 8-1). The Mountaineers could have found themselves in the conversation if not for a loss to Troy. That said, they own a non-conference win over Auburn. Their big problem is that James Madison is the only team that gives them any kind of in-conference resume boost. Grand Canyon could become the first Division 1 school to reach 20 wins this season (the WCC school is 19-2). The Lopes have a win over San Diego State but lost a game to Seattle inside the conference.

I guess if I am going to include those teams, I should at least mention McNeese out of the Southland. The Cowboys are 18-2 and are ranked 64th in the NET. They own the longest current winning streak in the nation. However, they own four wins outside of Division I, and their wins over VCU and Michigan (both having down years) are decent Quad 2 wins instead of Quad 1 conquests.

2. The KenPom Top 20

No team in the nation currently owns a Top 10 ranking in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. It isn’t a wild take to say that teams that rank highly in both categories tend to be dangerous when the NCAA Tournament comes around.

How many teams are in the top 20 in both categories? A handful:
Purdue (2nd ranked offense, 13th ranked defense)
Arizona (5th, 16th)
Houston (14th, 1st)
North Carolina (15th, 4th)
Tennessee (18th, 2nd)
Auburn (19th, 5th)

As dominant as UConn is showing to be, you may be surprised not to see them on the list. The Huskies are 3rd offensively and 23rd defensively.

Top 25:

1. Purdue (19-2) (1) – Toughest strength of schedule, second-best adjusted offense, survived a trip to Rutgers (they usually don’t).
2. UConn (18-2) (2) – Like Purdue, 7-2 in Quad 1 games. I find Purdue’s overall resume to be stronger.
3. North Carolina (17-3) (3) – Longest winning streak amongst power conference schools (10). Only trail McNeese (13) for the longest in Division 1.
4. Houston (18-2) (4) – The Cougars continue to suffocate opponents. The move to the Big 12 hasn’t changed that.
5. Tennessee (15-4) (5) – Are we starting to see the best-of-the-best separate from the pack? Of course, it is just as likely that the Top 5 will all lose this week.
6. Creighton (16-5) (10) – Losses to Marquette & UConn were on the road. They will get a chance at home revenge in the second half.
7. Marquette (15-5) (13) – One of my preseason favorites is playing better. Have yet to play UConn this season.
8. Wisconsin (16-4) (14) – Six Quad 1 wins and 10-4 in Quad 1/2. Only Purdue has more wins in Quad 1/2 (11).
9. Arizona (15-5) (6) – Only 7-5 since 8-0 start but their resume remains solid. Need to stop losing games in a mediocre (at best) Pac-12.
10.  Illinois (15-5) (9) – Solid-but-not-spectacular resume has only one major blemish (home loss to Maryland).
11. Kentucky (15-4) (8) – The defense, maligned most of the year, showed up against Arkansas.
12. Auburn (16-4) (7) – They are getting a few opportunities but remain winless in Quadrant 1 (0-3). The Tigers have the most Quadrant 2 wins (6) in the nation, however.
13. Duke (15-4) (12) – Quadrant 2 is their roadblock (0-3). 10-1 in their last 11 games, even if it doesn’t feel that way.
14. Iowa State (16-4) (NR) – Big jump feels deserved after adding Kansas to their conquest of Houston.
15. Kansas (16-4) (11) – Struggling in conference road games. Losing at Iowa State isn’t so bad, but Central Florida and West Virginia are bothersome.
16. Florida Atlantic (17-4) (18) – The Owls have lost one game in each of the four quadrants. The AAC is tough at the top, and I think they will emerge from the pack.
17. New Mexico (18-3) (22) – In their last five games, their average margin of victory is 20.8 (91.2 points per game)
18. Utah State (18-2) (20) – They aren’t quite as hot as New Mexico, but the Aggies remain at the top of the Mountain West.
19. Texas Tech (16-3) (NR) – Back-to-back wins over ranked opponents ease some of my concerns.
20. BYU (15-5) (16) – The Cougars have split their ten Quadrant 1/Quadrant 2 games.
21. Dayton (16-3) (19) – The Flyers haven’t lost outside of Quadrant 1 (3-3). The A-10 has a load of Top 100 NET teams, but only Dayton is in the Top 50 (16th).
22. Baylor (14-5) (16) – Three straight losses to unranked teams, though all three could have gone either way. 5-5 in last ten games.
23. San Diego State (16-4) (NR) – 20th ranked schedule. Would like to see them improve on their 2-4 Quadrant 1 mark.
24. Alabama (14-6) (NR) – An insanely tough schedule and the nation’s top adjusted offense makes them a legitimate Top 25 squad at this stage.
25. Saint Mary’s (16-6) (NR) – Eight straight wins and 7-0 in the WCC. To love them means overlooking two Quadrant 3 losses (3-2 in Quadrant 1)

Dropped Out:

Oklahoma (15-5) (17) – 2-4 in their last six games and 5-5 in their last ten games. 318th non-conference schedule doesn’t help, either.
Seton Hall (13-8) (21) – That crazy three overtime loss to Creighton has manifested into a 3-game losing streak.
Colorado State (15-5) (23) – The Rams started hot but are now 3-4 in conference play. The Mountain West is not for the faint of heart.
Memphis (15-5) (24) – The Tigers have lost three in a row in a conference that is pretty good but hardly good enough to justify losing three in a row.
Princeton (15-2) (25) – If they want at-large consideration, their road loss to Cornell should be their only loss until the conference tournament.

Just Missed:

TCU (15-5) – The Horned Frogs won a 3-OT thriller at Baylor and have a win over Houston. It was a very close call.
Indiana State (18-3) – Is it time to pay attention to the Missouri Valley power? The Sycamores have zero losses outside of Quadrant 1 and boast a strong offense. Defense is a bugaboo.
South Carolina (17-3) – Are they as good as the gaudy record? We will find out as their remaining schedule is brutal (both Tennessee games, both Ole Miss games, Auburn…)