1. Computers!
I love it when there is a debate over the computer rankings. I don’t agree with some of the rankings either. However, the committee has always said that computers only paint a part of the picture. I look heavily at the KenPom and NET because they do. If I am going to justify a ranking, statistical output is the best way to do it. That said, anyone can just list teams 1-25 based on the NET and call it their “ballot.”
There are so many moving parts that it seems worthless to try to make sense of everything. Gonzaga surging in the NET after wins over Pepperdine and San Diego doesn’t pass our eye test and for good reason. However, computers try to dig deeper than that. Their win over Syracuse gains value when the Orange beat Miami later in the season. As humans, most of us likely forgot that Gonzaga even played Syracuse this year, never mind trying to apply a formula that elevates that win later.
Seton Hall also falls into this trap – every time Rutgers or USC continues to lose and underachieve, it kills the Pirates because they lost to both teams. However, the committee will reward them for strong play in a strong conference.
2. Is there anything Grand Canyon/James Madison/etc. can do to enhance their resumes?
The answer is no, unfortunately. Grand Canyon losing to Seattle is a nightmare. James Madison losing two conference games may as well be a nail in the coffin. This goes back to the computer debate: These teams gain if their big upset victims play well. For Grand Canyon, that is San Diego State (and San Francisco, to an extent). For James Madison, that’s Michigan State.
I am a believer in the mid-majors, as they continue to prove through their tournament play that the best mid-majors are at least on par with the middle-of-the-pack big conference schools. In some cases, they are much better. The problem is that an at-large bid for these schools requires big non-conference wins, a strong schedule, and a gaudy record. The lack of a gaudy record, despite big non-conference wins, likely kept Monmouth (27-7 before the NIT) out of the 2016 NCAA Tournament. The committee’s mantra is to schedule tough games and win a few of them. However, you better not lose games to in-conference rivals!
3. How good is Princeton?
We may find out this week. There are three Ivy League schools in the NET Top 100: Princeton (31), Cornell (89). and Yale (96). Cornell is on a 3-game winning streak and is 4-0 at home. Yale is on a 5-game winning streak and played Gonzaga and Kansas within 15 points on the road. That may not impress you, but those are decent showings for an Ivy League squad.
Princeton’s next two games are road games against…
Cornell and Yale.
Top 25:
1. Purdue (17-2) (1) – 8-2 in road/neutral games.
2. UConn (17-2) (2) – 6-2 in Quad 1. They are behind Purdue because the Boilermakers have played only three Quad 4 games, while UConn has played eight.
3. North Carolina (15-3) (3) – Remain on cruise control. Their defense has stepped up.
4. Houston (16-2) (6) – Their two losses are by a combined five points on the road.
5. Tennessee (14-4) (7) – Doing more than enough against one of the toughest schedules in the country.
6. Arizona (14-4) (8) – The only shock is how they have lost two games in a weak Pac-12.
7. Auburn (16-2) (14) – The only thing holding them back is the lack of Quad 1 games (0-2). Their 6-0 record in Quad 2 is tied for best in the land (Memphis).
8. Kentucky (14-3) (9) – The Wildcats lead the nation in scoring (91.6) and are 4th in offensive efficiency.
9. Illinois (14-4) (13) – Rutgers is a bad offensive team but a solid defensive squad. The Illini torched them with an 86-point effort.
10. Creighton (14-5) (16) – Five road victories. Amongst power conference squads, no other team has more than three (Memphis, out of the AAC, also has five)
11. Kansas (15-3) (4) – 2-2 in last four. The two losses were to Central Florida (67th in the NET) and West Virginia (154th).
12. Duke (13-4) (5) – If you are missing players and lose to North Carolina, that is forgivable. But Pitt at home?
13. Marquette (13-5) (17) – Earned their second Quad 1 road win by defeating St. John’s. 4th toughest schedule after Purdue, Tennessee, Arizona.
14. Wisconsin (14-4) (12) – Bad loss at Penn State has the potential to drop into Quad 3. Their resume is more steady than it is overwhelming.
15. BYU (14-4) (19) – The Cougars continue to rise to the challenge of their new conference. The Iowa State win was a top-ten Quad 1 victory.
16. Baylor (14-4) (10) – A pair of road losses by a combined six points isn’t so bad. I also can’t overlook it completely.
17. Oklahoma (15-3) (23) – Earned their first road win of the season (Cincinnati), a game that also qualified as a Quad 1 victory.
18. Florida Atlantic (15-4) (20) – UTSA lost to Memphis 107-101 two weeks ago and 112-103 to Florida Atlantic last week. They aren’t good, but they are fun.
19. Dayton (15-2) (24) – 6-2 in Quadrant 1/2 (all games on the road or neutral courts).
20. Utah State (17-2) (15) – The Aggies remain unbeaten outside Quadrant 1, but are only 1-2 in Quadrant 1.
21. Seton Hall (13-6) (21) – 29th SOS, 4-4 in Quadrant 1. That was a brutal loss to Creighton – the Pirates would be in my top 15 if the coin flip went the other way.
22. New Mexico (16-3) (NR) – Back-to-back Quadrant 1 wins are enough to convince me. The Mountain West is chaos.
23. Colorado State (15-3) (22) – Two wins, but a ding for needing overtime to beat Air Force at home. The non-conference destruction of Creighton carries weight.
24. Memphis (15-4) (11) – I ding somewhat even if a team loses to good squads. South Florida and Tulane? Yikes.
25. Princeton (15-1) (NR) – Correct: Zero games in Quad 1. Also correct: They are passing most of their tests beyond the 4-point loss to St. Joseph’s.
Dropped Out:
TCU (13-5) (18) – 2-3 in a tough stretch against Kansas, Oklahoma, Houston, Cincinnati, Iowa State. 2-5 in Quadrant 1/2 games.
San Diego State (15-4) (25) – I will forever applaud their strength of schedule. More games in Quad 1/2 (10) than in Quad 3/4 (7).
Just Missed:
Texas Tech (15-3) – The Big 12 has helped improve their SOS. We’ll see where they are at after tough road games against TCU and Oklahoma.
Utah (14-5) – The Utes are 5-5 in Quad 1/Quad 2 games, including 2-2 in Top 25 Quad 1 games. Wins over Saint Mary’s and BYU bolstered their non-conference resume.
Iowa State (14-4) – Quad 1 road wins are gold, and they finally earned one. The computers have loved them all season – I still find their overall resume to be light.