1. Sorting out the Mountain West
It’s too early to conclude anything about the MWC, but the chaos we expected is coming to fruition. Colorado State, who looked like the best team during non-conference play, lost to the two remaining unbeaten conference squads last week (Utah State and Boise State). Speaking of Utah State, the Aggies pushed their winning streak to 15 games with their exciting road win over UNLV. Their 15-game winning streak with Samford for tops in the country. The Bulldogs started 0-2 (including a loss to Purdue) before going on their run. Their high-tempo style (only Kennesaw State has a better Adjusted Tempo) has allowed them to score a country-leading 91.5 points per game.
Back to the Mountain West: Six of the conference’s 11 squads are ranked between 20 (Utah State) and 44 (Boise State) in the NET. Will all six make the Big Dance? Last year, four teams made it and I would guess we’ll end up around that number again.
2. A new mid-major threat?
For years, New Mexico State ruled the Western Athletic Conference. The Aggies, who canceled their season last year, have moved on to Conference USA. It looks like Grand Canyon wants to become the new bully. Off to an impressive 16-1 start that includes a win over San Diego State, the Lopes will try to make it to their third NCAA Tournament in the last four years. In 2021, they lost to #2 seed Iowa by 12. They repeated that feat two years later, losing to #2 Gonzaga by the same margin. Under the leadership of one-time NCAA Tournament hero Bryce Drew, they are 80-28.
While I wouldn’t consider them an at-large threat, their #39 NET ranking would give them a better NCAA Tournament seed if you want to look into the deep future. For now, they need to keep winning while hanging around the fringes of the Top 25.
3. Is Gonzaga in trouble?
The Bulldogs are barely hanging on to a Top 50 ranking in the NET after their loss at Santa Clara. They are 0-4 in Quadrant 1 and have zero high-quality Quadrant 2 wins (the wins over Syracuse and USC were bottom-half Quad 2 conquests). When was the last time two other teams in the WCC had a better NET ranking than Gonzaga? That is where we are at, as red-hot St. Mary’s (five straight wins; 31st) and San Francisco (six straight wins; 41st) both rank higher.
I won’t say they are in danger of missing out on the NCAA Tournament if they lose in the conference tournament, but they can’t afford too many stumbles. It is their worst position in decades.
4. The crazy week behind us
This was one of those weeks where my Top 25 will have a lot of movement. However, it was so crazy that you find yourself placing most teams in roughly the same positions.
In the big multi-bid leagues, two teams have 9-game winning streaks (Texas Tech and Auburn) though I would argue that nobody is playing better than North Carolina, owners of six consecutive double-digit wins.
Top 25
1. Purdue (15-2) (1) – Overall resume still rules the day…
2. UConn (15-2) (5) – One of the few to go unscathed last week.
3. North Carolina (13-3) (7) – Is any big conference school playing better?
4. Kansas (14-2) (2) – Nice bounceback win over Oklahoma following the UCF loss.
5. Duke (13-3) (8) – The Blue Devils have sneakily won eight in a row.
6. Houston (14-2) (3) – The computers love them and, to be fair, both losses this week were close road contests.
7. Tennessee (12-4) (4) – No bad losses, but only 2-4 in Quadrant 1.
8. Arizona (12-4) (9) – 4-3 in their last seven games, but still are second to Purdue in Quadrant 1 wins (five)
9. Kentucky (12-3) (6) – 8th ranked adjusted offense. 54th-ranked adjusted defense. That sums it up.
10. Baylor (14-2) (13) – They’ve awakened since the back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Duke.
11. Memphis (15-2) (14) – Ten straight wins is worth something nowadays. Their win over UTSA was crazy.
12. Wisconsin (13-3) (18) – Death, taxes, and the Badgers exceeding expectations.
13. Illinois (12-4) (10) – The top five was staring them in the face…then they lost to Maryland. Oy very.
14. Auburn (14-2) (25) – 0-2 in Quadrant 1, but metrically a top ten offense and defense.
15. Utah State (16-1) (19) – A fun squad will try to end their 10-game NCAA Tournament losing streak in 2024.
16. Creighton (13-4) (20) – The Blue Jays have four straight wins after a 1-3 stretch.
17. Marquette (11-5) (11) – The Golden Eagles are in a slump – can they grind their way out of it like Creighton did?
18. TCU (13-3) (NR) – Last 3 games: 2-point loss at Kansas, 9-point win over Oklahoma, 1-point win over Houston. That works.
19. BYU (13-3) (12) – San Diego State remains their signature win this season.
20. Florida Atlantic (13-4) (21) – Survived Tulane to keep their spot in the Top 25.
21. Seton Hall (12-5) (NR) – It’s a chaotic resume, but one that includes a 4-2 Quadrant 1 record.
22. Colorado State (13-3) (17) – Road games are tough in the MWC. Hard to fault losses to Utah State and Boise State but they will need to protect their home court.
23. Oklahoma (13-3) (15) – No bad losses, but only one win in Quadrant 1 (three losses).
24. Dayton (13-2) (NR) – Ten straight wins + three Quadrant 1 wins. Much the best in the A-10, but two others are also unbeaten (Richmond, Rhode Island)
25. San Diego State (14-3) (16) – Tight for the last spot but their SOS keeps them in.
Dropped Out:
Cincinnati (12-4) (22) – No shame in back-to-back losses to Texas and Baylor (especially Baylor, since it was a 3-point road loss)
Clemson (12-4) (23) – Resume is still solid (zero losses outside Quadrant 1) but only 3-4 after 9-0 start.
South Carolina (14-2) (24) – Hard to keep them in after a brutal 74-47 loss to Alabama.
Just Missed:
Princeton (13-1) – My original rankings had them leaping over San Diego State. The Tigers are 4-1 in Quadrant 2.
Grand Canyon (16-1) – It’s that time of the year when you compare a win-heavy mid-major school to bigger schools that eat each other. Tough to balance.
Texas Tech (14-2) – Dinged for a horrid schedule. TCU had a bad non-conference slate as well, but can’t ignore what they are doing in the conference. The Red Raiders have some work to do.