Month: January 2024

1. Are any mid-majors at-large contenders?

The answer is simplistic if you include the Mountain West as a mid-major conference: Of course, there will be at-large mid-major teams!

However, most basketball fans wouldn’t consider the Mountain West as a true mid-major. Amongst conferences that traditionally only receive one bid, you can look towards the Ivy League (Princeton) and Missouri Valley (Indiana State) as two possibilities. Early-season darling James Madison still owns a gaudy record (18-3) but has lost both of their games to in-conference rival Appalachian State (17-4, 8-1). The Mountaineers could have found themselves in the conversation if not for a loss to Troy. That said, they own a non-conference win over Auburn. Their big problem is that James Madison is the only team that gives them any kind of in-conference resume boost. Grand Canyon could become the first Division 1 school to reach 20 wins this season (the WCC school is 19-2). The Lopes have a win over San Diego State but lost a game to Seattle inside the conference.

I guess if I am going to include those teams, I should at least mention McNeese out of the Southland. The Cowboys are 18-2 and are ranked 64th in the NET. They own the longest current winning streak in the nation. However, they own four wins outside of Division I, and their wins over VCU and Michigan (both having down years) are decent Quad 2 wins instead of Quad 1 conquests.

2. The KenPom Top 20

No team in the nation currently owns a Top 10 ranking in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. It isn’t a wild take to say that teams that rank highly in both categories tend to be dangerous when the NCAA Tournament comes around.

How many teams are in the top 20 in both categories? A handful:
Purdue (2nd ranked offense, 13th ranked defense)
Arizona (5th, 16th)
Houston (14th, 1st)
North Carolina (15th, 4th)
Tennessee (18th, 2nd)
Auburn (19th, 5th)

As dominant as UConn is showing to be, you may be surprised not to see them on the list. The Huskies are 3rd offensively and 23rd defensively.

Top 25:

1. Purdue (19-2) (1) – Toughest strength of schedule, second-best adjusted offense, survived a trip to Rutgers (they usually don’t).
2. UConn (18-2) (2) – Like Purdue, 7-2 in Quad 1 games. I find Purdue’s overall resume to be stronger.
3. North Carolina (17-3) (3) – Longest winning streak amongst power conference schools (10). Only trail McNeese (13) for the longest in Division 1.
4. Houston (18-2) (4) – The Cougars continue to suffocate opponents. The move to the Big 12 hasn’t changed that.
5. Tennessee (15-4) (5) – Are we starting to see the best-of-the-best separate from the pack? Of course, it is just as likely that the Top 5 will all lose this week.
6. Creighton (16-5) (10) – Losses to Marquette & UConn were on the road. They will get a chance at home revenge in the second half.
7. Marquette (15-5) (13) – One of my preseason favorites is playing better. Have yet to play UConn this season.
8. Wisconsin (16-4) (14) – Six Quad 1 wins and 10-4 in Quad 1/2. Only Purdue has more wins in Quad 1/2 (11).
9. Arizona (15-5) (6) – Only 7-5 since 8-0 start but their resume remains solid. Need to stop losing games in a mediocre (at best) Pac-12.
10.  Illinois (15-5) (9) – Solid-but-not-spectacular resume has only one major blemish (home loss to Maryland).
11. Kentucky (15-4) (8) – The defense, maligned most of the year, showed up against Arkansas.
12. Auburn (16-4) (7) – They are getting a few opportunities but remain winless in Quadrant 1 (0-3). The Tigers have the most Quadrant 2 wins (6) in the nation, however.
13. Duke (15-4) (12) – Quadrant 2 is their roadblock (0-3). 10-1 in their last 11 games, even if it doesn’t feel that way.
14. Iowa State (16-4) (NR) – Big jump feels deserved after adding Kansas to their conquest of Houston.
15. Kansas (16-4) (11) – Struggling in conference road games. Losing at Iowa State isn’t so bad, but Central Florida and West Virginia are bothersome.
16. Florida Atlantic (17-4) (18) – The Owls have lost one game in each of the four quadrants. The AAC is tough at the top, and I think they will emerge from the pack.
17. New Mexico (18-3) (22) – In their last five games, their average margin of victory is 20.8 (91.2 points per game)
18. Utah State (18-2) (20) – They aren’t quite as hot as New Mexico, but the Aggies remain at the top of the Mountain West.
19. Texas Tech (16-3) (NR) – Back-to-back wins over ranked opponents ease some of my concerns.
20. BYU (15-5) (16) – The Cougars have split their ten Quadrant 1/Quadrant 2 games.
21. Dayton (16-3) (19) – The Flyers haven’t lost outside of Quadrant 1 (3-3). The A-10 has a load of Top 100 NET teams, but only Dayton is in the Top 50 (16th).
22. Baylor (14-5) (16) – Three straight losses to unranked teams, though all three could have gone either way. 5-5 in last ten games.
23. San Diego State (16-4) (NR) – 20th ranked schedule. Would like to see them improve on their 2-4 Quadrant 1 mark.
24. Alabama (14-6) (NR) – An insanely tough schedule and the nation’s top adjusted offense makes them a legitimate Top 25 squad at this stage.
25. Saint Mary’s (16-6) (NR) – Eight straight wins and 7-0 in the WCC. To love them means overlooking two Quadrant 3 losses (3-2 in Quadrant 1)

Dropped Out:

Oklahoma (15-5) (17) – 2-4 in their last six games and 5-5 in their last ten games. 318th non-conference schedule doesn’t help, either.
Seton Hall (13-8) (21) – That crazy three overtime loss to Creighton has manifested into a 3-game losing streak.
Colorado State (15-5) (23) – The Rams started hot but are now 3-4 in conference play. The Mountain West is not for the faint of heart.
Memphis (15-5) (24) – The Tigers have lost three in a row in a conference that is pretty good but hardly good enough to justify losing three in a row.
Princeton (15-2) (25) – If they want at-large consideration, their road loss to Cornell should be their only loss until the conference tournament.

Just Missed:

TCU (15-5) – The Horned Frogs won a 3-OT thriller at Baylor and have a win over Houston. It was a very close call.
Indiana State (18-3) – Is it time to pay attention to the Missouri Valley power? The Sycamores have zero losses outside of Quadrant 1 and boast a strong offense. Defense is a bugaboo.
South Carolina (17-3) – Are they as good as the gaudy record? We will find out as their remaining schedule is brutal (both Tennessee games, both Ole Miss games, Auburn…)

1. Computers!

I love it when there is a debate over the computer rankings. I don’t agree with some of the rankings either. However, the committee has always said that computers only paint a part of the picture. I look heavily at the KenPom and NET because they do. If I am going to justify a ranking, statistical output is the best way to do it. That said, anyone can just list teams 1-25 based on the NET and call it their “ballot.”

There are so many moving parts that it seems worthless to try to make sense of everything. Gonzaga surging in the NET after wins over Pepperdine and San Diego doesn’t pass our eye test and for good reason. However, computers try to dig deeper than that. Their win over Syracuse gains value when the Orange beat Miami later in the season. As humans, most of us likely forgot that Gonzaga even played Syracuse this year, never mind trying to apply a formula that elevates that win later.

Seton Hall also falls into this trap – every time Rutgers or USC continues to lose and underachieve, it kills the Pirates because they lost to both teams. However, the committee will reward them for strong play in a strong conference.

2. Is there anything Grand Canyon/James Madison/etc. can do to enhance their resumes?

The answer is no, unfortunately. Grand Canyon losing to Seattle is a nightmare. James Madison losing two conference games may as well be a nail in the coffin. This goes back to the computer debate: These teams gain if their big upset victims play well. For Grand Canyon, that is San Diego State (and San Francisco, to an extent). For James Madison, that’s Michigan State.

I am a believer in the mid-majors, as they continue to prove through their tournament play that the best mid-majors are at least on par with the middle-of-the-pack big conference schools. In some cases, they are much better. The problem is that an at-large bid for these schools requires big non-conference wins, a strong schedule, and a gaudy record. The lack of a gaudy record, despite big non-conference wins, likely kept Monmouth (27-7 before the NIT) out of the 2016 NCAA Tournament. The committee’s mantra is to schedule tough games and win a few of them. However, you better not lose games to in-conference rivals!

3. How good is Princeton?

We may find out this week. There are three Ivy League schools in the NET Top 100: Princeton (31), Cornell (89). and Yale (96). Cornell is on a 3-game winning streak and is 4-0 at home. Yale is on a 5-game winning streak and played Gonzaga and Kansas within 15 points on the road. That may not impress you, but those are decent showings for an Ivy League squad.

Princeton’s next two games are road games against…

Cornell and Yale.

Top 25:

1. Purdue (17-2) (1) – 8-2 in road/neutral games.
2. UConn (17-2) (2) – 6-2 in Quad 1. They are behind Purdue because the Boilermakers have played only three Quad 4 games, while UConn has played eight.
3. North Carolina (15-3) (3) – Remain on cruise control. Their defense has stepped up.
4. Houston (16-2) (6) – Their two losses are by a combined five points on the road.
5. Tennessee (14-4) (7) – Doing more than enough against one of the toughest schedules in the country.
6. Arizona (14-4) (8) – The only shock is how they have lost two games in a weak Pac-12.
7. Auburn (16-2) (14) – The only thing holding them back is the lack of Quad 1 games (0-2). Their 6-0 record in Quad 2 is tied for best in the land (Memphis).
8. Kentucky (14-3) (9) – The Wildcats lead the nation in scoring (91.6) and are 4th in offensive efficiency.
9. Illinois (14-4) (13) – Rutgers is a bad offensive team but a solid defensive squad. The Illini torched them with an 86-point effort.
10. Creighton (14-5) (16) – Five road victories. Amongst power conference squads, no other team has more than three (Memphis, out of the AAC, also has five)
11. Kansas (15-3) (4) – 2-2 in last four. The two losses were to Central Florida (67th in the NET) and West Virginia (154th).
12. Duke (13-4) (5) – If you are missing players and lose to North Carolina, that is forgivable. But Pitt at home?
13. Marquette (13-5) (17) – Earned their second Quad 1 road win by defeating St. John’s. 4th toughest schedule after Purdue, Tennessee, Arizona.
14. Wisconsin (14-4) (12) – Bad loss at Penn State has the potential to drop into Quad 3. Their resume is more steady than it is overwhelming.
15. BYU (14-4) (19) – The Cougars continue to rise to the challenge of their new conference. The Iowa State win was a top-ten Quad 1 victory.
16. Baylor (14-4) (10) – A pair of road losses by a combined six points isn’t so bad. I also can’t overlook it completely.
17. Oklahoma (15-3) (23) – Earned their first road win of the season (Cincinnati), a game that also qualified as a Quad 1 victory.
18. Florida Atlantic (15-4) (20) – UTSA lost to Memphis 107-101 two weeks ago and 112-103 to Florida Atlantic last week. They aren’t good, but they are fun.
19. Dayton (15-2) (24) – 6-2 in Quadrant 1/2 (all games on the road or neutral courts).
20. Utah State (17-2) (15) – The Aggies remain unbeaten outside Quadrant 1, but are only 1-2 in Quadrant 1.
21. Seton Hall (13-6) (21) – 29th SOS, 4-4 in Quadrant 1. That was a brutal loss to Creighton – the Pirates would be in my top 15 if the coin flip went the other way.
22. New Mexico (16-3) (NR) – Back-to-back Quadrant 1 wins are enough to convince me. The Mountain West is chaos.
23. Colorado State (15-3) (22) – Two wins, but a ding for needing overtime to beat Air Force at home. The non-conference destruction of Creighton carries weight.
24. Memphis (15-4) (11) – I ding somewhat even if a team loses to good squads. South Florida and Tulane? Yikes.
25. Princeton (15-1) (NR) – Correct: Zero games in Quad 1. Also correct: They are passing most of their tests beyond the 4-point loss to St. Joseph’s.

Dropped Out:

TCU (13-5) (18) – 2-3 in a tough stretch against Kansas, Oklahoma, Houston, Cincinnati, Iowa State. 2-5 in Quadrant 1/2 games.
San Diego State (15-4) (25) – I will forever applaud their strength of schedule. More games in Quad 1/2 (10) than in Quad 3/4 (7).

Just Missed:

Texas Tech (15-3) – The Big 12 has helped improve their SOS. We’ll see where they are at after tough road games against TCU and Oklahoma.
Utah (14-5) – The Utes are 5-5 in Quad 1/Quad 2 games, including 2-2 in Top 25 Quad 1 games. Wins over Saint Mary’s and BYU bolstered their non-conference resume.
Iowa State (14-4) – Quad 1 road wins are gold, and they finally earned one. The computers have loved them all season – I still find their overall resume to be light.

1. Sorting out the Mountain West

It’s too early to conclude anything about the MWC, but the chaos we expected is coming to fruition. Colorado State, who looked like the best team during non-conference play, lost to the two remaining unbeaten conference squads last week (Utah State and Boise State). Speaking of Utah State, the Aggies pushed their winning streak to 15 games with their exciting road win over UNLV. Their 15-game winning streak with Samford for tops in the country. The Bulldogs started 0-2 (including a loss to Purdue) before going on their run. Their high-tempo style (only Kennesaw State has a better Adjusted Tempo) has allowed them to score a country-leading 91.5 points per game.

Back to the Mountain West: Six of the conference’s 11 squads are ranked between 20 (Utah State) and 44 (Boise State) in the NET. Will all six make the Big Dance?  Last year, four teams made it and I would guess we’ll end up around that number again.

2. A new mid-major threat?

For years, New Mexico State ruled the Western Athletic Conference. The Aggies, who canceled their season last year, have moved on to Conference USA. It looks like Grand Canyon wants to become the new bully. Off to an impressive 16-1 start that includes a win over San Diego State, the Lopes will try to make it to their third NCAA Tournament in the last four years. In 2021, they lost to #2 seed Iowa by 12. They repeated that feat two years later, losing to #2 Gonzaga by the same margin. Under the leadership of one-time NCAA Tournament hero Bryce Drew, they are 80-28.

While I wouldn’t consider them an at-large threat, their #39 NET ranking would give them a better NCAA Tournament seed if you want to look into the deep future. For now, they need to keep winning while hanging around the fringes of the Top 25.

3. Is Gonzaga in trouble?

The Bulldogs are barely hanging on to a Top 50 ranking in the NET after their loss at Santa Clara. They are 0-4 in Quadrant 1 and have zero high-quality Quadrant 2 wins (the wins over Syracuse and USC were bottom-half Quad 2 conquests). When was the last time two other teams in the WCC had a better NET ranking than Gonzaga? That is where we are at, as red-hot St. Mary’s (five straight wins; 31st) and San Francisco (six straight wins; 41st) both rank higher.

I won’t say they are in danger of missing out on the NCAA Tournament if they lose in the conference tournament, but they can’t afford too many stumbles. It is their worst position in decades.

4. The crazy week behind us

This was one of those weeks where my Top 25 will have a lot of movement. However, it was so crazy that you find yourself placing most teams in roughly the same positions.

In the big multi-bid leagues, two teams have 9-game winning streaks (Texas Tech and Auburn) though I would argue that nobody is playing better than North Carolina, owners of six consecutive double-digit wins.

Top 25

1. Purdue (15-2) (1) – Overall resume still rules the day…

2. UConn (15-2) (5) – One of the few to go unscathed last week.

3. North Carolina (13-3) (7) – Is any big conference school playing better?

4. Kansas (14-2) (2) – Nice bounceback win over Oklahoma following the UCF loss.

5. Duke (13-3) (8) – The Blue Devils have sneakily won eight in a row.

6. Houston (14-2) (3) – The computers love them and, to be fair, both losses this week were close road contests.

7. Tennessee (12-4) (4) – No bad losses, but only 2-4 in Quadrant 1.

8. Arizona (12-4) (9) – 4-3 in their last seven games, but still are second to Purdue in Quadrant 1 wins (five)

9. Kentucky (12-3) (6) – 8th ranked adjusted offense. 54th-ranked adjusted defense. That sums it up.

10. Baylor (14-2) (13) – They’ve awakened since the back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Duke.

11. Memphis (15-2) (14) – Ten straight wins is worth something nowadays. Their win over UTSA was crazy.

12. Wisconsin (13-3) (18) – Death, taxes, and the Badgers exceeding expectations.

13. Illinois (12-4) (10) – The top five was staring them in the face…then they lost to Maryland. Oy very.

14. Auburn (14-2) (25) – 0-2 in Quadrant 1, but metrically a top ten offense and defense.

15. Utah State (16-1) (19) – A fun squad will try to end their 10-game NCAA Tournament losing streak in 2024.

16. Creighton (13-4) (20) – The Blue Jays have four straight wins after a 1-3 stretch.

17. Marquette (11-5) (11) – The Golden Eagles are in a slump – can they grind their way out of it like Creighton did?

18. TCU (13-3) (NR) – Last 3 games: 2-point loss at Kansas, 9-point win over Oklahoma, 1-point win over Houston. That works.

19. BYU (13-3) (12) – San Diego State remains their signature win this season.

20. Florida Atlantic (13-4) (21) – Survived Tulane to keep their spot in the Top 25.

21. Seton Hall (12-5) (NR) – It’s a chaotic resume, but one that includes a 4-2 Quadrant 1 record.

22. Colorado State (13-3) (17) – Road games are tough in the MWC. Hard to fault losses to Utah State and Boise State but they will need to protect their home court.

23. Oklahoma (13-3) (15) – No bad losses, but only one win in Quadrant 1 (three losses).

24. Dayton (13-2) (NR) – Ten straight wins + three Quadrant 1 wins. Much the best in the A-10, but two others are also unbeaten (Richmond, Rhode Island)

25. San Diego State (14-3) (16) – Tight for the last spot but their SOS keeps them in.

Dropped Out:

Cincinnati (12-4) (22) – No shame in back-to-back losses to Texas and Baylor (especially Baylor, since it was a 3-point road loss)

Clemson (12-4) (23) – Resume is still solid (zero losses outside Quadrant 1) but only 3-4 after 9-0 start.

South Carolina (14-2) (24) – Hard to keep them in after a brutal 74-47 loss to Alabama.

Just Missed:

Princeton (13-1) – My original rankings had them leaping over San Diego State. The Tigers are 4-1 in Quadrant 2.

Grand Canyon (16-1) – It’s that time of the year when you compare a win-heavy mid-major school to bigger schools that eat each other. Tough to balance.

Texas Tech (14-2) – Dinged for a horrid schedule. TCU had a bad non-conference slate as well, but can’t ignore what they are doing in the conference. The Red Raiders have some work to do.

 

 

Top 25

1. Purdue (14-1) (1) – Illinois has emerged as a top team in the Big Ten. Purdue beat them by five last week. They don’t play a currently ranked team for a while, but an in-state in-conference rivalry game at Indiana awaits on 1/16.

2. Kansas (13-1) (2) – As I keep saying, the computers are not in love. The KenPom ranks them as the 18th luckiest team in the country, and certainly held up against TCU on Saturday. They take on Oklahoma this coming weekend.

3. Houston (14-0) (3) – I was tempted to jump them over Kansas, but that is just semantics. For all the talk about their stellar defense, their offense ranks tenth in offensive efficiency. A tricky road trip against Iowa State and TCU is coming next.

4. Tennessee (11-3) (4) – The Volunteers extended their winning streak to seven by mauling the previously unbeaten Ole Miss squad by 26.

5. UConn (13-2) (5) – Road wins are precious inside conference play, and the Huskies needed all the offense they could muster to take care of Butler. Defense is where they can use some improvement. Offensively, they are as good as anyone.

6. Kentucky (11-2) (9) – It was a hard fought battle, but the Wildcats prevailed on the road against Florida. Underachieving Texas A&M is a part of their upcoming schedule.

7. North Carolina (11-3) (11) – The Tar Heels have played seven games in Quad 1 this season, tied for most in the NCAA. Only Purdue (6) and Arizona (5) have won more games in that quadrant.

8. Duke (11-3) (12) – The Blue Devils had to play the full 40 minutes to defeat Notre Dame. This week, they try to avenge their early-season loss to Georgia Tech.

9. Arizona (12-3) (13) – The Wildcats average 92.6 points per game, including recent slaughters of Colorado (97-50) and Utah (92-73).  A dangerous, dangerous squad.

10. Illinois (11-3) (8) – They destroyed Northwestern before hanging tough in a 6-point road loss to Purdue. Inconsistent Michigan State and down Maryland await next.

11. Marquette (11-4) (6) – The Golden Eagles remain one of my favorites to cut down the nets. Every loss is in Quadrant 1, where they also own three victories.

12. BYU (12-2) (7) – The Cougars’ first Big 12 test did not go well, as they lost a home game to Cincinnati (another new member of the conference). It doesn’t get much easier, as a trip to Baylor awaits.

13. Baylor (12-2) (15) – The Bears have followed up their losses to Michigan State and Duke with three straight wins against not-as-good competition. Their game against BYU may show us something about both schools.

14. Memphis (13-2) (17) – On one hand, the Tigers have eight straight wins and have yet to lose a game outside of Quadrant 1. On the other, their last few wins haven’t been impressive (78-75 over Tulsa and 62-59 over SMU).

15. Oklahoma (13-1) (18) – A nice win over computer darling Iowa State last week. This week? Two road games (TCU, Kansas) that will tell us more about the Sooners, who didn’t play a tough non-conference slate.

16. San Diego State (13-2) (19) – I don’t know what more they need to do to get the AP writers to put them in the Top 25. Two Quad 1 wins, zero bad losses, 14th-best non-conference schedule, etc.

17. Colorado State (13-2) (10) – This was the week of challenges for the Rams, and they ended up splitting the two games (win over New Mexico/loss to Utah State).

18. Wisconsin (11-3) (24) – The Badgers are the lone unbeaten squad (3-0) in the Big Ten. A tricky road game against Ohio State comes next.

19. Utah State (14-1) (NR) – Their win over Colorado State improved their Quad 1 record to 2-0. As expected, the Mountain West has started strong.

20. Creighton (11-4) (25) – The Blue Jays needed that win over Providence. They need to start stacking wins after a tough stretch that saw them go 1-3 with a loss to UNLV mixed in.

21. Florida Atlantic (11-4) (14) – Life as the hunted instead of the hunter can be a rough one. Their win over Arizona will forever be their biggest conquest. They cannot lose many games to teams like Charlotte (7-7) and expect to maintain a Sweet 16 seed in the Big Dance.

22. Cincinnati (12-2) (NR) – The Bearcats started their stretch of five ranked games in six games played with a win over BYU. Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Kansas are a part of this crazy stretch.

23. Clemson (11-3) (16) – An 0-2 week (losses to Miami and North Carolina) drops the Tigers, who are entering the easier part of their conference slate. It is time to pile up the wins.

24. South Carolina (13-1) (NR) – The Gamecocks essentially take the place of Ole Miss as ranked teams who still have something to prove. Their game at Alabama this week can make things clearer.

25. Auburn (12-2) (NR) – Arkansas isn’t playing up to expectations, but Auburn beating them by 32 in a home game is eye-popping for both squads.

Dropped Out:

Colorado (11-4) (20) – Their trip through Arizona (Arizona State, Arizona) did not go well.

James Madison (14-1) (21) – They had trouble at Louisiana before losing to Southern Miss. Their margins aren’t wide, so they have to avoid losing too many in-conference games if they want any at-large consideration.

Ole Miss (13-1) (22) – I didn’t expect them to beat Tennessee on the road. I did need them to keep it close for me to keep ranking them.

Texas (11-3) (23) – When your non-conference schedule is ranked 319th, you better play well once tougher competition enters the arena.

Just Missed:

Nevada (14-1) – Seven straight wins as they attempt to join their Mountain West counterparts in the Top 25.

Princeton (13-1) – The Tigers just keep on winning…

Seton Hall (10-5) – They are putting together a nice array of Big East victories.

 

Top 25

1. Purdue (12-1) (1) – A dominant win over Eastern Kentucky was expected, but you never know what to expect in college basketball. It’s all conference play from here on out for the Boilermakers, owners of the 18th-best non-conference schedule.

2. Kansas (12-1) (2) – The computers don’t love the Jayhawks, though they defeated Kentucky, Tennessee, and UConn. A solid schedule and a top defense (4th in the nation in defensive efficiency) puts them in this position.

3. Houston (13-0) (3) – Unbeaten. Extraordinary defense. Not-so-hot schedule (9-0 in Quad 3/4 games). The Big 12 will provide plenty of tests, with a game at Iowa State (1/9) offering up such a challenge.

4. Tennessee (9-3) (5) – One more non-conference tilt (Norfolk State) before a game with unbeaten Ole Miss to begin conference play.

5. UConn (11-2) (6) – While the loss to Seton Hall may stand out, it was a Big East road game. Strange things happen in big conference road games sometimes. Their non-conference schedule is 251st in the nation, but that is mostly because they mixed a lot of strong opposition with some very weak opposition – not much in between the two extremes.

6. Marquette (11-3) (8) – Winning tough home games will be imperative in the Big East race – the Golden Eagles did that against Creighton. They take a road trip to Seton Hall this coming week.

7. BYU (12-1) (9) – Negative: 300th-ranked non-conference schedule. Positive: Top ten in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency. It is time to prove just how good they are as Big 12 play commences.

8. Illinois (10-2) (10) – If Michigan State can get rolling, they will factor into the Big Ten. However, for now, Purdue’s main competition appears to be Illinois. There will be a bunch of teams fighting for NCAA Tournament scraps in this league. Speaking of Purdue, Illinois takes on the Boilermakers’ nemesis (Northwestern) next.

9. Kentucky (10-2) (11) – Their resume is dinged by playing only four Quad 1/2 games (3-1) plus their Quad 3 loss to UNC-Wilmington. Plenty of difficult conference games are upcoming, though they don’t play a currently ranked AP Top 25 team until February.

10. Colorado State (12-1) (13) – The preliminaries are over. Now the Mountain West fun begins: The Rams take on New Mexico (12-1) and Utah State (12-1, road game) in their next two games.

11. North Carolina (9-3) (14) – The Tar Heels (9th in the country in offensive efficiency) play their next three conference games on the road: Pitt, Clemson, and North Carolina State.

12. Duke (9-3) (15) – Their January ACC schedule is not tough – it is their time to start stacking wins while building up the resume. The ACC is not deep, and the Blue Devils play Clemson and Miami only once apiece.

13. Arizona (10-3) (7) – Hopefully, for the Wildcats’ sake, Stanford going crazy from three was a fluke and not a sign of weakness. Even after that effort, they are in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

14. Florida Atlantic (10-3) (4) – They are 2-1 in Quadrant 1 games and 3-0 in Quadrant 2 games. However, those two Quad 4 losses (Bryant, Florida Gulf Coast) are killers.

15. Baylor (10-2) (12) – No games last week. The Bears have another non-conference warm-up (Cornell) before they travel to Oklahoma State to begin Big 12 play. Their offense is stellar – their defense is vulnerable.

16. Clemson (11-1) (17) – If you are skeptical about the Tigers, their next two games will either prove you wrong or right: at Miami and at home against North Carolina.

17. Memphis (11-2) (19) – I want to jump Memphis over Oklahoma thanks to their 25th-ranked non-conference slate. They are 7-2 in Quad 1/Quad 2 games and will be the main competition for Florida Atlantic in the AAC.

18. Oklahoma (12-1) (18) – The fact remains that the Sooners are 8-0 in Quadrant 4 games and have one of the weakest schedules in college basketball. The good thing about big conference teams is that you can’t hide forever.

19. San Diego State (11-2) (NR) – No bad losses and the 15th-ranked non-conference schedule in the nation. The win over Gonzaga iced their spot in the Top 20 for me.

20. Colorado (11-2) (20) – The two Washington schools visited Colorado last week. The games weren’t as easy as perhaps they should have been, but wins are wins. A huge game at Arizona awaits.

21. James Madison (13-0) (22) – As Michigan State tries to heat up, that only helps out the Dukes’ resume. Now comes the part of the season that is a nearly impossible situation: The Sun Belt, which is traditionally a decent mid-major league (the conference ranks 21st out of 33), has only one other team in the Top 100 in the NET (Appalachian State). Three of the teams are ranked in the 300s. They simply cannot afford to lose to those teams.

22. Ole Miss (13-0) (23) – Then you have Ole Miss. The Rebels are 10-0 in Quad 3/Quad 4 games. Unlike James Madison, however, they will have plenty of games to boost their resume. Of course, those games could also expose them. They start SEC play with a game at Tennessee. Good luck.

23. Texas (10-2) (24) – At least Ole Miss and James Madison own Quad 1 wins. Texas is 0-2 in Quad 1 games and a whopping 9-0 in Quadrant 4 games. The Longhorns need to have a strong Big 12 campaign or that will be held against them. If it isn’t, there is something wrong.

24. Wisconsin (9-3) (25) – The Badgers had the holiday week off. Their upcoming schedule isn’t daunting, though it does include a game at Ohio State.

25. Creighton (9-4) (16) – I will keep them in the Top 25 because their is better than that of a team like Providence. That said, the Blue Jays are 0-2 in the Big East while the Friars are 2-0. It is time to start winning.

Dropped Out:

Gonzaga (9-4) (21) – I don’t see the justification to keep the Zags ranked. They are 0-4 in Quadrant 1 games, and that is supposed to be their early-season bread and butter. Unless St. Mary’s wakes up, the WCC is going to likely be a breeze.

Just Missed:

New Mexico (12-1), Nevada (13-1), Utah State (12-1) – They remain in this spot for another week. The Mountain West will start sorting these teams out this week.

Providence (11-2) – I was within an eyelash of putting them in the Top 25 over Creighton.

Iowa State (11-2) – I am not extremely impressed, but every computer loves the Hawkeyes so I should give them some respect. They have played only one Quadrant 1 game (a loss) and are 8-0 in Quadrant 4.