In a move that shook up the Yankees fanbase, Yoshinobu Yamamoto decided to join Shohei Ohtani in Los Angeles over taking his talents to New York. While it is easy to say that they lost Yamamoto over $25 million, that statement is only true if Yamamoto was coming to the Yankees if they simply matched or beat the top offer. Nothing I am seeing suggests that is true.
While it was disappointing (and still is), the Yankees have no choice but to move on. The question is: What do they move on to?
1. They can look within:
There are three starting pitchers to watch at the beginning of 2024: Will Warren, Yoendrys Gomez, and Clayton Beeter. Later in the season, you may see Chase Hampton‘s debut. Edgar Barclay survived the Rule 5 draft and could give the Yankees some swingman innings as well. One sleeper that is on my radar is Brendan Beck, who has only 34 professional innings to his name but came out of college as a polished arm before going down to injury. I can see him rising quickly through Somerset in 2024.
Of the sextet, Warren is your best bet to give you quality out of the rotation early. While it is smart to keep Beeter in the rotation for as long as possible (value!), his long-term projection is still a relief pitcher to me. Gomez has a starter’s arsenal without the starter’s durability. I see him as a swingman/multi-inning reliever. Hampton is at least a half-season away from being a viable option. Warren adjusted to a tough Triple-A environment down the stretch in 2023, giving you hope that he can be ready as early as Opening Day. It would require a 40-man move.
There is little doubt that the Yankees depleted their depth in the Juan Soto trade. Michael King has injury concerns but proved that he can start in MLB. Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez would have filled in innings. Drew Thorpe is surging toward his MLB debut.
However, the Yankees didn’t have the luxury to see how the Yamamoto pursuit would end before they decided on a final package for Soto. If they knew that Yamamoto was going to slip through their fingers, would they try to attempt to alter the package for Soto? Maybe but that isn’t very meaningful. The deal for Soto was a good one.
Bottom line: The Yankees have depleted upper-level pitching depth. If these pitchers don’t excite you, I understand that. Not every pitcher comes up and dominates like Spencer Strider (that is very rare), so you would be dealing with growing pains while trying to win. Because of that, Warren should be a swingman type in 2024 – some work in the minors, some work in the bullpen, some MLB starts mixed in. I am not counting on their youngsters to be significant members of the rotation.
2. A trade:
I wish people would understand that the Yankees don’t operate within a bubble of one. Dylan Cease has years of control and is cheap. His 2023 season wasn’t great (4.58 ERA/3.72 FIP), which should bring down his value somewhat. However, if a team like the Orioles is in on him (and they should be), it’s over. They can offer a package that the Yankees won’t be able to match, even if they don’t include their top-top prospects. Are the Yankees offering Hampton/Warren + Peraza + more chips for him? And even if they do, would it be enough? I am not confident.
Corbin Burnes is a one-year rental who would also be in high demand amongst many teams. A Cy Young winner from 2021, Burnes has finished in the top ten in the vote four years in a row. There were subtle signs of decline in 2023, but he still managed to lead the National League in WHIP while finishing 6th in ERA. As a one-year rental, you don’t care about Burnes for 2025 and beyond – you care about whether he can still be well above average for 2024. If he does nothing more than replicate his 2023 season, he will be worth the cost. But you will have to deplete the depth even more than it already is.
Shane Bieber is a pitcher in much debate. I think there is reason to be skeptical, given that his FIP jumped by a full run in 2023, while his K% dropped below the league average. If Cleveland wants to essentially dump him for something before he becomes a free agent, the cost shouldn’t be exuberant. Bieber should be much cheaper than Cease with no guarantee that Cease will outperform him. That is what you call an opportunity cost – though it comes with risk. That’s a major issue with many of the options: They come with risk. Gerrit Cole 2.0 is not on this market – neither as a free agent nor via trade.
The Marlins may have an arm to spare in exchange for some lineup help. The most talked about name is Edward Cabrera, and for good reason. He has trouble with control (understatement). Despite that, he owns a 108 career ERA+, which makes you dream about what he can do if he can reduce the walk rate. That is easier said than done. I don’t see the Marlins putting Jesus Luzardo or Braxton Garrett on the market. Perhaps you can entice the Mariners for an arm like Bryce Miller, but he doesn’t excite me.
The Yankees are known for being creative with trades in the past – but we have a situation where much of their upper-level bait is gone with teams who want instant help over what is buried deep in your system. We have to accept that there may not be a match to be made for a true long-term difference-maker. Short-term? Much easier to see.
The free agents:
Just like Yamamoto, some free agents only cost money. In the case of 2-time Cy Young Winner Blake Snell, he comes with draft implications. He is the most accomplished pitcher remaining, but I don’t see the Yankees dumping $200M+ on a pitcher who has regression written all over him. His 2.25 ERA came with a 3.44 FIP and an unsustainable 86.7% left-on-base rate. Snell is very good with moments of greatness mixed in. Is he worth the contract he is demanding? Debatable, at best.
Nobody increased their value more than Jordan Montgomery. If the Cardinals approached him with something in the neighborhood of a 6-year, $80M offer after they acquired him from the Yankees, he probably signs without hesitation. Now, he is potentially worth double that. With Montgomery, you wonder if the increased usage of the sinker will sustain itself throughout several more seasons. If his numbers revert to his days in Pinstripes, that’s a fine pitcher. I am not sure if it is a pitcher worth what he is demanding. The market is what it is, though.
Frankie Montas was the Yankees’ big deadline acquisition in 2022. Since that trade was completed, we haven’t seen much of him. When healthy, he has legitimate #2 stuff. The Yankees were right to target him at the time and I wouldn’t mind a pillow contract for his services.
Shota Imanaga unfairly gets Kei Igawa comparisons because he is the secondary Japanese pitcher on the market. He is not Igawa but he comes with major concerns over his flyball tendencies, suggesting that a change in approach could be in store for a pitcher who is already 30 years old. He strikes me as a fun pitcher to watch but also one who is likely to be hit around more often than you like. I am not heavily on his train, though he would provide some innings at least.
Lucas Giolito may have Matt Blake salivating at the thought of trying to get him back on track. Leaving out the COVID season, he has tossed 29+ starts for six straight seasons, though his high water mark for innings is only 184.1. The positives include an above-average strikeout rate. The negatives include an extreme home run rate (41 allowed in 2023) that comes with a below-average ability to keep the ball on the ground. This is not typically a Yankee Stadium profile for a RHP. He is an under-30 lottery ticket.
Brandon Woodruff would be a move with 2025 in mind, while Clayton Kershaw may entice as a mid-season target if he proves he is healthy. Does anyone really see him leaving Los Angeles, though? Don’t even think about Marcus Stroman.
Bottom line: There is an interesting group of pitchers on this list. I don’t see the Yankees handing out a big long-term deal, however. They could look at the 1-year rentals, hope for magical seasons, and look at long-term pitching options for 2025. It may not sound like a great strategy, but what is?
The bullpen:
I hate the concept of a “super bullpen,” where the Yankees sign Josh Hader and Jordan Hicks and try to beat you for 5-6 innings so they can hand the game over to an embarrassingly rich lineup of arms. It is not a strategy that typically lives up to your expectations. Furthermore, the Yankees are so good at bullpen development that I am not sure if I want to spend resources there. Signing a pitcher like Hicks, Yariel Rodriguez, or Robert Stephenson would likely be a smart move. But the Yankees cannot and should not blow the budget on bullpen arms.
Bottom line: Going crazy on free-agent bullpen arms is something teams who struggle with bullpen construction do. The Yankees have proven that bullpen construction is a strength. Look into signing someone, but don’t make it a top priority.
The offense:
“Hey, the pitching options aren’t all that exciting – maybe we should just go all-in with offense!”
I am not going to spend much time on this one. The Yankees could call Matt Chapman, who isn’t exactly an offensive superstar. They could try to fit a square peg into a round hole with Cody Bellinger while moving Alex Verdugo to a backup role. Unless they have information that Anthony Rizzo is not healing well or whatever, it doesn’t feel like a smart usage of resources. They will go with what they have while hoping for improvement from Anthony Volpe and above-average catching production from Austin Wells, assuming he makes the team as a sidekick to Jose Trevino.
Bottom line: Building the strongest possible offense is desirable but it has to make sense. I haven’t seen anything that indicates that the Yankees have any interest in Bellinger, and it should probably stay that way.
The bottom line:
If you wonder why my optimism is low at the moment, this list should explain it to you. Yamamoto did not come with a guarantee of greatness, but he did come with that ceiling (in my mind, his floor is still a good MLB pitcher). Of the pitchers above, Burnes still owns that ceiling with Cease below that threshold unless he finds some consistency. Since they are not going to have an interest in Snell, the free agents are mostly underwhelming. Signing Montgomery gives you that boring middle-tier starter that everyone needs, but how much is the needle moving for the cost? At least he knows and understands the New York market. I am not sure if that is a good thing.
I have been consistent from the start; Yamamoto was the play. However, one has to conclude that New York wasn’t as appealing as he let on. It was certainly appealing from a negotiation standpoint. All agents dream of having the Yankees involved publicly with their free agents. It’s a gold mine for their clients.
People need to stop with their “the Yankees are simply not as desirable as they once were!” stuff. There is no basis for reality in that statement.
The Yankees pivot here isn’t easy to figure out. That frustrates me as I want to be able to say that Bieber/Giolito would be a sneaky, under-the-radar way to improve the team at a relatively low cost. I am having trouble stating that with conviction, though. The risks are high if your plan is a World Series run. That is a common theme this offseason: Pitchers who come with risk. You have to try to find the pitchers who defy that risk. Good luck.
Don’t focus on the next big things from Japan. As we are seeing, the East Coast is at a disadvantage for top players who appeal to West Coast squads. If Roki Sasaki is posted before age 25, every team in baseball will have the ability to sign him for peanuts. If he isn’t posted before 25, you have to wait several years just to have the opportunity to throw your vault at him. It’s not worth worrying about.
The Yankees have no choice. We can’t harp on Yamamoto forever, so we have to move on. I can guarantee you that no move is going to satisfy the majority of the fanbase. That guy is not there to acquire. That isn’t doom and gloom – it’s reality.
2024 is not a dead season because Yamamoto is in Los Angeles. That’s silly talk. However, it will take some creativity and a bounceback from Carlos Rodon for one to be comfortable with the 2024 rotation.I don’t think Rodon suddenly forgot how to be an ace-level pitcher but he has to prove it. His performance in 2023 was dreadful and a repeat of that would be devastating.
This wasn’t a blog post designed to sugarcoat or try to convince you that plans B/C/D are just as good as the potential star. You will need some luck for that to happen.
This is not the clean and easy offseason the Yankees brass likely wanted, but it is still an offseason with opportunities for roster improvement beyond the big fish they have already reeled in. That is the focus now.
Personally (and my thought process keeps evolving), I may lean towards the rental route. That can still get you to where you want to be while allowing you to reassess after the season for long-term goals. Don’t sign a pitcher to a long-term deal just because you can.