We are down to 12 unbeaten teams (half of them reside in the Big 12). It is hard to project a big conference team as the potential “last team standing” so I will look elsewhere. Here is how I rank those who are unbeaten, based solely on their potential to be the last unbeaten team:
12. Oklahoma – Their schedule to date is light – that changes with Providence, Arkansas, and North Carolina before the calendar changes to 2024.
11. Clemson – Their next two games are against fellow unbeaten squads South Carolina and TCU. Win those, and a date with Memphis awaits.
10. Cincinatti – Not that Xavier has impressed early, but a trip to their gym is never fun for the Bearcats.
9. South Carolina – I could have ranked them 12th (given that the game against Clemson is on the road), but their schedule after that is so light that I give them a shot to reach 2024 without a loss.
8. Baylor – Their next three games are against power conference schools (Seton Hall, Michigan State, Duke). Those three teams are far from perfect, but it is going to be tough to get through it unscathed.
7. TCU – First, they need to get past Clemson. Do that, and they have a chance to enter 2024 unbeaten – once there, however, they begin their conference journey with games at Kansas, vs. Oklahoma, and vs. Houston.
6. Princeton – They beat Rutgers and squeaked past Furman. Their next two games are against Drexel (recently beat Villanova) and Saint Joseph’s (just won the first-ever Big Five Classic championship game). If they can win those games, they could be the #1 team on this list.
5. BYU – They won’t be favored this week at Utah in all likelihood. However, I rank them here because a win there gives them a big chance to enter conference play 13-0.
4. Houston – The early portion of their Big 12 schedule isn’t tough – but they have Texas A&M to get through first.
3. Colorado State – To me, it is all about St. Mary’s. If that squad wakes up, they can beat the Rams. If not, they should get to 2024 unbeaten – where New Mexico would await in their first conference game.
2. Nevada – Nobody is paying attention to the Wolf Pack, which is due to their crazy easy schedule. Can a trip to Hawai’i be their downfall? A game against Temple? Hard to say because it is hard to read this team.
1. James Madison – Old Dominion isn’t off to a good start, but James Madison has to face them on the road. The Sun Belt isn’t an easy conference, and they will run into roadblocks. Based on the current schedule, however, I still give them the best shot to be the last of the unbeaten teams.
Top 25:
1. Arizona (7-0) (2) – The Wildcats took it easy this week, knocking off Colgate by 27 in their only game. Now, life gets tougher: Wisconsin, Purdue, Alabama, and Florida Atlantic between now and December 23rd.
2. Purdue (7-1) (1) – The Maui Tournament win >>>> road loss to Northwestern.
3. Kansas (7-1) (5) – A less-than-inspiring win over Eastern Illinois was erased by a victory over a stubborn UConn squad that had a chance to win it late. The rest of the month features five games, including three in-state contests (Kansas City, Missouri, Wichita State)
4. Houston (8-0) (6) – The KenPom ranks the Cougars as the nation’s best team, despite a schedule that is light on stiff competition. Houston has the nation’s best Adjusted Defense Efficiency and allows only 50.4 points per contest. They will finally get a test on 12/16 against in-state rival Texas A&M.
5. UConn (7-1) (3) – Their streak of double-digit non-conference wins predictably came to an end at Kansas, but they kept it close (had a chance to take the lead with few seconds left in the game). Up next, they get to play in the Jimmy V Classic against North Carolina at Madison Square Garden.
6. Marquette (6-2) (4) – Tough road loss to in-state rival Wisconsin. They can ease the pain with a win over Texas this week.
7. North Carolina (7-1) (12) – In typical North Carolina fashion, they appeared on their way to a clunker against Florida State after knocking off Tennessee. However, they overcame a 14-point deficit to knock off the Seminoles. Their next three games: UConn, Kentucky, Oklahoma.
8. Gonzaga (6-1) (9) – USC isn’t playing well, and the Bulldogs knocked them down even further with a 13-point victory. They have a few tough non-conference games left (UConn, San Diego State) before we see if anyone is up to the challenge in conference play. Given that St. Mary’s is off to a stunning 3-5 start and BYU is no longer around, methinks Gonzaga will be once again in cruise control heading into March Madness.
9. Creighton (7-1) (11) – Forgotten in the Blue Jays’ big run in the NCAA Tournament was their early-season loss to Nebraska. They certainly avenged that on Saturday, destroying the previously unbeaten Cornhuskers by 29.
10. Florida Atlantic (7-1) (14) – The Owls are certainly making up for that loss to Bryant. This week, they knocked off Liberty (unbeaten entering the game) and Charleston (not the same team that went 31-4 last year). The rest of their non-conference features games against Illinois (Tuesday) and Arizona (12/23).
11. Baylor (8-0) (15) – Their non-conference slate includes wins over three power conference squads (Auburn, Oregon State, Florida), but their 252nd-ranked non-conference SOS likely reflects how mediocre those teams are. The Bears still have games with Michigan State and Duke before conference play begins.
12. Colorado State (8-0) (18) – The Rams are piling up wins, adding Colorado and Washington to their list of victims that includes Creighton. Their last major test before conference play begins is against St. Mary’s. Yes, the Gaels are off to a slow start but who knows when something might click?
13. Texas (6-1) (19) – Texas State is hardly a team that scares anyone, but in this crazy season, you take every win you can get. With that game out of the way, they can now concentrate on Marquette in the Big East-Big 12 Battle.
14. BYU (7-0) (20) – Their game this coming Saturday at Utah may be their last roadblock in their quest to enter conference play 13-0. The KenPom loves the Cougars, as they are ranked 8th based on being strong both offensively (14th in Adjusted offense efficiency) and defensively (13th).
15. Miami (6-1) (8) – Kentucky proved to be quite the test for the Hurricanes as the Wildcats didn’t hold back in a 95-73 drubbing. Miami did bounce back to beat Notre Dame in their ACC opener.
16. Illinois (6-1) (25) – The Fighting Illini suffocated Rutgers in a 76-58 trouncing in their Big Ten opener. Their only loss remains a respectable 7-point game against Marquette. How much higher can they go? We’ll find out this week, as they play Florida Atlantic (Jimmy V Classic) and Tennessee (road).
17. Wisconsin (6-2) (NR) – Boasting a 43rd-ranked non-conference schedule, the Badgers can brag about wins over Virginia and Marquette to balance out their losses to Tennessee and Providence. This week, they travel to Michigan State (Big Ten opener) and Arizona (final non-conference test).
18. Kentucky (6-2) (13) – College basketball, defined: Destroying Miami. Losing to UNC Wilmington.
19. Texas A&M (6-2) (16) – The Aggies have scored between 73-79 points five times this season. That is their “happy” zone, as they are 5-0 in those games and 1-2 in their other matchups (including an ugly 59-47 loss to Virginia last time out)
20. Virginia (7-1) (NR) – Their ugly 65-41 loss to Wisconsin was evened out by their 59-47 win over Texas A&M. This is your prototypical Virginia squad – win with defense and just enough offense. They have a tricky 12/19 game at Memphis coming up. They shouldn’t lose before then, but how can anyone say that with much confidence?
21. Duke (5-3) (7) – Duke went on the road this week and promptly lost to two unranked teams. The Blue Devils better hope that Michigan State picks things up, or their non-conference slate won’t be filled with many quality wins. They can rectify that with a win over Baylor on 12/20 in Madison Square Garden.
22. Ohio State (7-1) (NR) – Last week’s AP poll included only Purdue and Illinois from the Big Ten. That should change this week, courtesy of Wisconsin and maybe Ohio State. The Buckeyes have a quality win over Alabama and a 7-point loss to Texas A&M.
23. James Madison (8-0) (21) – Nobody is going to earn points by beating Keystone, but the Dukes continue to pile up wins after their Michigan State triumph to start the year. Their margin for error is not high and they can probably only lose 1-2 conference games if they want at-large consideration (if they don’t win their conference tournament).
24. Clemson (7-0) (NR) – It is tough to get a read on the Tigers. They are unbeaten (good) but some of their wins leave something to be desired (77-76 over UAB, 68-65 over Davidson). That said, they have a win over Alabama and will try to add to their non-conference resume with games against South Carolina, TCU, and Memphis coming up.
25. San Diego State (7-1) (NR) – With their loss to BYU looking “better” by the day, it is time to rank the Aztecs. However, it isn’t lost on me that they needed a buzzer-beater to defeat UC-San Diego this week.
Dropped Out:
Villanova (6-3) (10) – I ranked Villanova high in my first Top 25, dropped them out after their loss to Penn, jumped them considerably after they won the Battle 4 Atlantis, and will now take them out again after their losses to Saint Joseph’s and Drexel. In the first year of the “Big 5” competition in its new format, the Wildcats went 0-3.
Tennessee (4-3) (17) – The Volunteers receive a lot of bonus points for their tough schedule. They have lost three in a row – the opponents were Purdue, Kansas, and North Carolina. The win over Wisconsin is looking better, at least and will get another shot at a quality win against Illinois this week.
Mississippi State (6-2) (22) – Losing at Georgia Tech may not be so bad (Duke did the same, after all). However, losing to Southern is more than enough to get you bounced from the rankings.
Alabama (5-2) (23) – The Crimson Tide don’t own any bad losses (Ohio State, Clemson) but they also do not own any quality wins.
Memphis (5-2) (24) – The Tigers have lost two in a row after a 5-game winning streak (Villanova, at Ole Miss).
Just Missed:
Oklahoma (7-0) – They remain on my radar but their 353rd-ranked non-conference schedule is just a tad off-putting.
Arkansas (5-3) – The Duke win is their early-season resume maker. Their upcoming game with Oklahoma is a nice test for both teams.
Northwestern (6-1) – A nice mid-tier win (Dayton) and a top-tier win (Purdue) place the Wildcats in Top 25 contention.