December 2023 - Tom's Sports Blog

College Basketball Top 25: 12/26/23

Top 25

1. Purdue (11-1) (1) – After a tough schedule that included wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama, and Arizona, the Boilermakers finally received a break in a 100-57 drubbing of Jacksonville. No team is more deserving of the top spot heading into 2024.

2. Kansas (11-1) (2) – The computers don’t love the Jayhawks (16th in the KenPom; 15th in the NET), but they still own three Quadrant 1 wins. Admittedly, they have their share of close wins against teams they should crush on paper.

3. Houston (12-0) (3) – The Cougars sit at the top of the computer rankings, and for good reason. My ding comes from a relatively mediocre schedule, though they are 4-0 in Quad 1 games.

4. Florida Atlantic (10-2) (8) – There is no other way to describe their non-conference slate as anything but a success – even with that weird loss to Bryant. After a game against Florida-Gulf Coast, the Owls begin conference play. Memphis will be their main competition on paper, but we will see how it shakes out.

5. Tennessee (9-3) (7) – The computers love the Vols, given that they have eight games in Quad 1/Quad 2 and only four games in Quad 3/Quad 4. They will play Norfolk State before starting their conference slate against Ole Miss.

6. UConn (11-2) (4) – While the Huskies continue their dominance against non-conference foes, Seton Hall proved to be a tough opponent. They did rebound with an impressive win over St. John’s, however.

7. Arizona (9-2) (5) – So, they had a stretch of games where they played Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Alabama, and Florida Atlantic. In those five games, the Wildcats went 3-2. The rest of their schedule will be all in-conference foes.

8. Marquette (10-3) (6) – The Golden Knights struggled mightily at Providence (72-57), but bounced back by slaughtering Georgetown. Before the calendar starts to 2024, a tough matchup with Creighton awaits.

9. BYU (11-1) (9) – I am simply going to point to their 1/9 game at Baylor. They may not win that game, but we must see just how “real” the Cougars are.

10. Illinois (9-2) (12) – Their non-conference is essentially a win over Florida Atlantic and losses to Tennessee and Marquette. They have a huge game with Purdue coming up (1/5), assuming they can beat 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Buster FDU and Northwestern leading into it.

11. Kentucky (9-2) (13) – Maybe the Wildcats should apply to play in the ACC, given their 3-0 record against the conference this year (Miami, North Carolina, Louisville). They have regained some trust after that loss to UNC Wilmington.

12. Baylor (10-2) (10) – Those losses to Michigan State and Duke will raise some eyebrows, as their schedule was far from strong heading into those games. I might be over-ranking them, but there is still a lot to like here – especially on the offensive side of the ball.

13. Colorado State (11-1) (14) – The Rams only have one Quad 1 game (a win over Creighton) but are also 3-1 against Quad 2 opponents. While I have identified them as the best in the Mountain West, there is a lot of season to go and the league promises to be one of the most fun leagues to follow this season.

14. North Carolina (8-3) (15) – Oklahoma is no longer unbeaten thanks to the Tar Heels, who finished 4-3 in their gauntlet of seven games (OK, including Florida State on the list is dubious).

15. Duke (8-3) (21) – Their 110th-ranked schedule included a win over Michigan State but little else until they took care of business against Baylor at Madison Square Garden. They play Queens next, a team that just lost to Clemson by 30.

16. Creighton (9-3) (11) – A tough loss to Villanova to start off their conference slate – they will try to right their ship at Marquette on 12/30.

17. Clemson (10-1) (17) – The Tigers keep their ranking, as their only game last week was a non-conference tilt against Queens. Radford (10-4, 5-game winning streak) awaits. The Highlanders lost to James Madison by only three earlier this season.

18. Oklahoma (10-1) (16) – North Carolina put an end to the Sooners’ undefeated dreams. I have never ranked Oklahoma too high due to their 275th ranked schedule, but their defense ranks in the top ten in the nation (by defensive efficiency).

19. Memphis (10-2) (20) – Vanderbilt (4-8) played the Tigers very well, losing by only two. While that isn’t impressive, Memphis has won five in a row with three wins over strong competition (Texas A&M, Clemson, Virginia). They own a 7-2 record against Quad 1/Quad 2 competition.

20. Colorado (9-2) (22) – Colorado has won four straight games by a combined 101 points, though only one of those games was high quality (Miami).

21. Gonzaga (9-3) (23) – When was the last time Gonzaga was as low as 45th in the NET? An 0-3 record in Quad 1 games will do that to you. Their upcoming game against San Diego State may not be a Quadrant 1 game, but it would be a nice feather to add to their cap.

22. James Madison (12-0) (24) – The Dukes are doing what they need to do – win, win, win. If they want any shot at an at-large berth (if they don’t win the conference tournament), they will need a gaudy record for the committee to look at.

23. Ole Miss (12-0) (NR) – The Rebels have zero Quad 1 games, but it is time to recognize their undefeated record. The tests will come soon enough, starting with a 1/6 game against Tennessee.

24. Texas (9-2) (19) – I can excuse a team like James Madison having trouble finding opponents. The Longhorns have the nation’s 318th-ranked non-conference schedule and that is not acceptable.

25. Wisconsin (9-3) (25) – The Badgers didn’t fall into the same trap as Northwestern, as they were able to take care of business against Chicago State. The rest of their schedule is in-conference games only.

Dropped Out:

Virginia (9-2) (18) – A 23-point loss to Memphis is enough to knock that out of the Top 25. Their defense is, at times, great. Their offense is, most of the time, not good at all.

Just Missed:

New Mexico (11-1), Nevada (12-1), Utah State (12-1) – A trio of 1-loss Mountain West squads. According to the NET, they are ranked 34th, 36th, and 40th, respectively.

Princeton (11-1) – Ranked 24th in the NET, the Tigers have a resume issue as they are only 0-1 in Quadrant 1. They need Rutgers to improve to turn that win into a Quad 1 conquest.

Providence (11-2) – The Friars are stacking wins, including conquests of Wisconsin and Marquette.

My Take: The Yankees Miss Out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto

In a move that shook up the Yankees fanbase, Yoshinobu Yamamoto decided to join Shohei Ohtani in Los Angeles over taking his talents to New York. While it is easy to say that they lost Yamamoto over $25 million, that statement is only true if Yamamoto was coming to the Yankees if they simply matched or beat the top offer. Nothing I am seeing suggests that is true.

While it was disappointing (and still is), the Yankees have no choice but to move on. The question is: What do they move on to?

1. They can look within:

There are three starting pitchers to watch at the beginning of 2024: Will Warren, Yoendrys Gomez, and Clayton Beeter. Later in the season, you may see Chase Hampton‘s debut. Edgar Barclay survived the Rule 5 draft and could give the Yankees some swingman innings as well. One sleeper that is on my radar is Brendan Beck, who has only 34 professional innings to his name but came out of college as a polished arm before going down to injury. I can see him rising quickly through Somerset in 2024.

Of the sextet, Warren is your best bet to give you quality out of the rotation early. While it is smart to keep Beeter in the rotation for as long as possible (value!), his long-term projection is still a relief pitcher to me. Gomez has a starter’s arsenal without the starter’s durability. I see him as a swingman/multi-inning reliever. Hampton is at least a half-season away from being a viable option. Warren adjusted to a tough Triple-A environment down the stretch in 2023, giving you hope that he can be ready as early as Opening Day. It would require a 40-man move.

There is little doubt that the Yankees depleted their depth in the Juan Soto trade. Michael King has injury concerns but proved that he can start in MLB. Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez would have filled in innings. Drew Thorpe is surging toward his MLB debut.

However, the Yankees didn’t have the luxury to see how the Yamamoto pursuit would end before they decided on a final package for Soto. If they knew that Yamamoto was going to slip through their fingers, would they try to attempt to alter the package for Soto? Maybe but that isn’t very meaningful. The deal for Soto was a good one.

Bottom line: The Yankees have depleted upper-level pitching depth. If these pitchers don’t excite you, I understand that. Not every pitcher comes up and dominates like Spencer Strider (that is very rare), so you would be dealing with growing pains while trying to win. Because of that, Warren should be a swingman type in 2024 – some work in the minors, some work in the bullpen, some MLB starts mixed in. I am not counting on their youngsters to be significant members of the rotation.

2. A trade:

I wish people would understand that the Yankees don’t operate within a bubble of one. Dylan Cease has years of control and is cheap. His 2023 season wasn’t great (4.58 ERA/3.72 FIP), which should bring down his value somewhat. However, if a team like the Orioles is in on him (and they should be), it’s over. They can offer a package that the Yankees won’t be able to match, even if they don’t include their top-top prospects. Are the Yankees offering Hampton/Warren + Peraza + more chips for him? And even if they do, would it be enough? I am not confident.

Corbin Burnes is a one-year rental who would also be in high demand amongst many teams. A Cy Young winner from 2021, Burnes has finished in the top ten in the vote four years in a row. There were subtle signs of decline in 2023, but he still managed to lead the National League in WHIP while finishing 6th in ERA. As a one-year rental, you don’t care about Burnes for 2025 and beyond – you care about whether he can still be well above average for 2024. If he does nothing more than replicate his 2023 season, he will be worth the cost. But you will have to deplete the depth even more than it already is.

Shane Bieber is a pitcher in much debate. I think there is reason to be skeptical, given that his FIP jumped by a full run in 2023, while his K% dropped below the league average. If Cleveland wants to essentially dump him for something before he becomes a free agent, the cost shouldn’t be exuberant. Bieber should be much cheaper than Cease with no guarantee that Cease will outperform him. That is what you call an opportunity cost – though it comes with risk. That’s a major issue with many of the options: They come with risk. Gerrit Cole 2.0 is not on this market – neither as a free agent nor via trade.

The Marlins may have an arm to spare in exchange for some lineup help. The most talked about name is Edward Cabrera, and for good reason. He has trouble with control (understatement). Despite that, he owns a 108 career ERA+, which makes you dream about what he can do if he can reduce the walk rate. That is easier said than done. I don’t see the Marlins putting Jesus Luzardo or Braxton Garrett on the market. Perhaps you can entice the Mariners for an arm like Bryce Miller, but he doesn’t excite me.

The Yankees are known for being creative with trades in the past – but we have a situation where much of their upper-level bait is gone with teams who want instant help over what is buried deep in your system. We have to accept that there may not be a match to be made for a true long-term difference-maker. Short-term? Much easier to see.

The free agents:

Just like Yamamoto, some free agents only cost money. In the case of 2-time Cy Young Winner Blake Snell, he comes with draft implications. He is the most accomplished pitcher remaining, but I don’t see the Yankees dumping $200M+ on a pitcher who has regression written all over him. His 2.25 ERA came with a 3.44 FIP and an unsustainable 86.7% left-on-base rate. Snell is very good with moments of greatness mixed in. Is he worth the contract he is demanding? Debatable, at best.

Nobody increased their value more than Jordan Montgomery. If the Cardinals approached him with something in the neighborhood of a 6-year, $80M offer after they acquired him from the Yankees, he probably signs without hesitation. Now, he is potentially worth double that. With Montgomery, you wonder if the increased usage of the sinker will sustain itself throughout several more seasons. If his numbers revert to his days in Pinstripes, that’s a fine pitcher. I am not sure if it is a pitcher worth what he is demanding. The market is what it is, though.

Frankie Montas was the Yankees’ big deadline acquisition in 2022. Since that trade was completed, we haven’t seen much of him. When healthy, he has legitimate #2 stuff. The Yankees were right to target him at the time and I wouldn’t mind a pillow contract for his services.

Shota Imanaga unfairly gets Kei Igawa comparisons because he is the secondary Japanese pitcher on the market. He is not Igawa but he comes with major concerns over his flyball tendencies, suggesting that a change in approach could be in store for a pitcher who is already 30 years old. He strikes me as a fun pitcher to watch but also one who is likely to be hit around more often than you like. I am not heavily on his train, though he would provide some innings at least.

Lucas Giolito may have Matt Blake salivating at the thought of trying to get him back on track. Leaving out the COVID season, he has tossed 29+ starts for six straight seasons, though his high water mark for innings is only 184.1. The positives include an above-average strikeout rate. The negatives include an extreme home run rate (41 allowed in 2023) that comes with a below-average ability to keep the ball on the ground. This is not typically a Yankee Stadium profile for a RHP. He is an under-30 lottery ticket.

Brandon Woodruff would be a move with 2025 in mind, while Clayton Kershaw may entice as a mid-season target if he proves he is healthy. Does anyone really see him leaving Los Angeles, though? Don’t even think about Marcus Stroman.

Bottom line: There is an interesting group of pitchers on this list. I don’t see the Yankees handing out a big long-term deal, however. They could look at the 1-year rentals, hope for magical seasons, and look at long-term pitching options for 2025. It may not sound like a great strategy, but what is?

The bullpen:

I hate the concept of a “super bullpen,” where the Yankees sign Josh Hader and Jordan Hicks and try to beat you for 5-6 innings so they can hand the game over to an embarrassingly rich lineup of arms. It is not a strategy that typically lives up to your expectations. Furthermore, the Yankees are so good at bullpen development that I am not sure if I want to spend resources there. Signing a pitcher like Hicks, Yariel Rodriguez, or Robert Stephenson would likely be a smart move. But the Yankees cannot and should not blow the budget on bullpen arms.

Bottom line: Going crazy on free-agent bullpen arms is something teams who struggle with bullpen construction do. The Yankees have proven that bullpen construction is a strength. Look into signing someone, but don’t make it a top priority.

The offense:

“Hey, the pitching options aren’t all that exciting – maybe we should just go all-in with offense!”

I am not going to spend much time on this one. The Yankees could call Matt Chapman, who isn’t exactly an offensive superstar. They could try to fit a square peg into a round hole with Cody Bellinger while moving Alex Verdugo to a backup role. Unless they have information that Anthony Rizzo is not healing well or whatever, it doesn’t feel like a smart usage of resources. They will go with what they have while hoping for improvement from Anthony Volpe and above-average catching production from Austin Wells, assuming he makes the team as a sidekick to Jose Trevino.

Bottom line: Building the strongest possible offense is desirable but it has to make sense. I haven’t seen anything that indicates that the Yankees have any interest in Bellinger, and it should probably stay that way.

The bottom line:

If you wonder why my optimism is low at the moment, this list should explain it to you. Yamamoto did not come with a guarantee of greatness, but he did come with that ceiling (in my mind, his floor is still a good MLB pitcher). Of the pitchers above, Burnes still owns that ceiling with Cease below that threshold unless he finds some consistency. Since they are not going to have an interest in Snell, the free agents are mostly underwhelming. Signing Montgomery gives you that boring middle-tier starter that everyone needs, but how much is the needle moving for the cost? At least he knows and understands the New York market. I am not sure if that is a good thing.

I have been consistent from the start; Yamamoto was the play. However, one has to conclude that New York wasn’t as appealing as he let on. It was certainly appealing from a negotiation standpoint. All agents dream of having the Yankees involved publicly with their free agents. It’s a gold mine for their clients.

People need to stop with their “the Yankees are simply not as desirable as they once were!” stuff. There is no basis for reality in that statement.

The Yankees pivot here isn’t easy to figure out. That frustrates me as I want to be able to say that Bieber/Giolito would be a sneaky, under-the-radar way to improve the team at a relatively low cost. I am having trouble stating that with conviction, though. The risks are high if your plan is a World Series run. That is a common theme this offseason: Pitchers who come with risk. You have to try to find the pitchers who defy that risk. Good luck.

Don’t focus on the next big things from Japan. As we are seeing, the East Coast is at a disadvantage for top players who appeal to West Coast squads. If Roki Sasaki is posted before age 25, every team in baseball will have the ability to sign him for peanuts. If he isn’t posted before 25, you have to wait several years just to have the opportunity to throw your vault at him. It’s not worth worrying about.

The Yankees have no choice. We can’t harp on Yamamoto forever, so we have to move on. I can guarantee you that no move is going to satisfy the majority of the fanbase. That guy is not there to acquire. That isn’t doom and gloom – it’s reality.

2024 is not a dead season because Yamamoto is in Los Angeles. That’s silly talk. However, it will take some creativity and a bounceback from Carlos Rodon for one to be comfortable with the 2024 rotation.I don’t think Rodon suddenly forgot how to be an ace-level pitcher but he has to prove it. His performance in 2023 was dreadful and a repeat of that would be devastating.

This wasn’t a blog post designed to sugarcoat or try to convince you that plans B/C/D are just as good as the potential star. You will need some luck for that to happen.

This is not the clean and easy offseason the Yankees brass likely wanted, but it is still an offseason with opportunities for roster improvement beyond the big fish they have already reeled in. That is the focus now.

Personally (and my thought process keeps evolving), I may lean towards the rental route. That can still get you to where you want to be while allowing you to reassess after the season for long-term goals. Don’t sign a pitcher to a long-term deal just because you can.

College Basketball Top 25: 12/18/23

Top 25:

1. Purdue (10-1) (2) – Non-conference wins: Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama, and Arizona. I don’t care what the NET rankings say – how can this squad not be the best in the country?

2. Kansas (10-1) (3) – Their non-conference conquests include Kentucky, Tennessee, and UConn with a solid win over Indiana. Before the 2023 calendar runs out, an in-state rivalry game with Wichita State will need to be conquered.

3. Houston (11-0) (4) – At first glance, you may not love Houston’s schedule (204th non-conference strength of schedule). However, they do own four Quadrant 1 wins (only Purdue has more) and their defense is the most suffocating in the nation. The should get through 2023 unbeaten, as their final two games are against Texas State and Penn.

4. UConn (10-1) (5) – Their non-conference slate ends with a win over Gonzaga, adding the Bulldogs to their conquests of Texas and North Carolina. Every win has been by double digits.

5. Arizona (8-1) (1) – Technically, they lost a neutral-court game against Purdue – but it was played in Indianapolis. Their schedule has been light (only three games since November 23rd) but that now change as they have four games before the calendar changes to 2024, including matchups with Alabama and Florida Altantic. By the way, the Wildcats are the only team in the country that is in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

6. Marquette (9-2) (6) – The Golden Eagles had a major scare against a hot shooting St. Thomas (MN) squad last week. In a season filled with fun early-season upsets, that one would have ranked near the top. Anyway, they survived it and will hope for less drama in their conference game at Providence on Tuesday.

7. Tennessee (8-3) (11) – They have turned things around after a 3-game losing streak, as they are the owners of a 4-mgae winning streak (including a win over Illinois). I am giving them extra credit for their tough schedule, though they will need to improve on their 2-3 mark aganinst Quadrant 1 competition.

8. Florida Atlantic (9-2) (10) – The Owls needed to grind one out against St. Bonaventure – but they did end up winning by double-digits. They are 5-1 against Quad 1/Quad 2 competition, though they get dinged for their Quadrant 4 loss to Bryant. They got a shot at Arizona next before ending their 2023 slate with a game at Florida Gulf-Coast.

9. BYU (10-1) (14) – Am I turned off by their 8-0 mark in Quad 3/Quad 4 games? Yes. Their schedule is weak and 2023 doesn’t end with a bang (Bellarmine and Wyoming).

10. Baylor (9-1) (8) – Every team is going to lose at some point. Every team is going to get destroyed at some point. Baylor’s first loss certainly met that criteria, as Michigan State finally woke up to beat them by 24 (and it didn’t even feel that close). The Bears have yet to play a true road game, and that won’t change against Duke (Madison Square Garden).

11. Creighton (9-2) (7) – UNLV (a 4-5 squad that is the only Mountain West team under .500) somehow beat the Blue Jays by 15. They bounced back to knock off Alabama, which just shows you how crazy of a game college basketball is.

12. Illinois (8-2) (13) – Sometimes, the best way to improve your ranking is by having a quiet week (a win over Colgate).

13. Kentucky (8-2) (17) – The Wildcats are loving their games against the ACC in the non-conference, beating Miami and North Carolina. They can add a third win by beating Louisville this week.

14. Colorado State (10-1) (16) – Predictable demolition of Colorado – St. Pueblo. The Rams have another non-Division I game coming up (Adams State). The beginning of 2024, however, promises to be much tougher: Back-to-back conference games against one-loss New Mexico and Utah State.

15. North Carolina (7-3) (9) – Back-to-back losses against UConn and Kentucky heading into a game against unbeaten Oklahoma. One can’t deny their relatively tough schedule, but you still want to see better than 1-3 record in Quad 1.

16. Oklahoma (10-0) (20) – On one hand, it isn’t their fault that USC and Arkansas have faltered (neither win is a Quad 1 win). On the other hand, they are 0-0 in Quad 1 games and have yet to play a true road game. Let’s see what the Sooners do against North Carolina on Wednesday.

17. Clemson (9-1) (15) – The Tigers played only one game this week, a 2-point loss at Memphis. It dropped their Quad 1 record to a still impressive 3-1.

18. Virginia (9-1) (18) – Northeastern (a 4-7 Colonial school) played Virginia to the wire on Saturday before succumbing by two. The Cavaliers have no offense to speak of but remain one of the strongest defensive schools in the country.

19. Texas (8-2) (19) – Computer rankings can be wacky early in the season, but it should be noted that the Longhorns are 57th in the NET. Why is that? They are 0-2 in Quad 1 games and 7-0 in Quad 4 games. They have a game coming up against UNC-Greensboro, the squad that knocked off Arkansas earlier this season.

20. Memphis (8-2) (25) – After losses to Villanova (neutral) and Ole Miss (road), Memphis has won three in a row, including wins over Texas A&M and Clemson. Their non-conference strength of schedule ranks 10th, and they have enough solid wins over big-time schools to justify this ranking. They aren’t done yet, as they play Virginia next.

21. Duke (7-3) (22) – It’s been a strange season for the Blue Devils. Typically the owner of one of the toughest schedules in the nation, Duke has only two Quadrant 1 games (a loss to Arizona and a win over Michigan State). It would serve them well to beat Baylor on Wednesday.

22. Colorado (8-2) (21) – For now, their neutral court demolition of Miami is “only” a Quadrant 2 conquest while their loss to Florida State is a Quadrant 3 loss. That leaves a resume that is light but solid. The new year brings three straight conference road games, including one against Arizona.

23. Gonzaga (8-3) (12) – Where’s the big resume-boosting win this year? They are 0-3 in Quadrant 1 games and their 2-0 record in Quadrant 2 is not great (USC and Syracuse). They get a crack at San Diego State as their last big non-conference game.

24. James Madison (10-0) (23) – Beating Michigan State looks better after the Spartans crushed Baylor. It’s hard for the Dukes to earn big wins the rest of the way, though Appalachian State is helping boost the Sun Belt.

25. Wisconsin (8-3) (24) – Chicago State, who just defeated Northwestern (the only team to beat Purdue) is up next for the Badgers, a team that has its share of big wins (Virginia, Marquette, Michigan State) and forgivable losses (Arizona (though it was a blowout), Tennessee).

Dropped Out:

None.

Just Missed:

Ole Miss (10-0) – Their win over Memphis remains their best conquest, though it was a home game (which puts it just below the Quad 1 line). As one of the remaining unbeaten teams in the country, they still deserve respect.

Princeton (10-1) – It seems crazy that their Quadrant 1 win is their road win over Duquesne instead of their neutral court win over Rutgers (Quad 2). Like with many similar schools, they will need a gaudy record to have a shot at an at-large if they were to lose in the Ivy League tournament.

New Mexico (10-1) – It is nearly time for the Mountain West to start sorting itself out. As of now, four teams are in the NET Top 30 (Colorado State, San Diego State, New Mexico, Utah State) with one other team in the Top 50 (Nevada). It will be a fun ride and many of these teams will receive NCAA Tournament bids.

My Take: Yankees Complete Trade with Dodgers

The trade:

The Yankees acquired LHP Victor Gonzalez and IF Jorbit Vivas from the Dodgers for IF Trey Sweeney

The suspense is over. After 24 hours of speculating over who was involved in this trade, we received an official announcement today. While relatively minor, it isn’t a throwaway deal.

The Dodgers needed roster space. The Yankees had roster space to spare. Mix those and you have the ingredients for a trade.

With Wandy Peralta on the free agent market, the Yankees needed left-handed relief help. Gonzalez, who won’t be a free agent until after the 2026 campaign, owns a 3.22 ERA (3.35 FIP) over 89.1 career innings with a 23.2% K, 8.4% BB, and 58.1% GB. In almost three seasons with the Yankees, Peralta pitched to a 2.82 ERA (4.06 FIP) over 153 innings with a 21% K, 10.3% BB and 56.5% BB. As you may suspect, Gonzalez is a sinker-heavy pitcher (63.7% usage). While Peralta has a sinker in his profile, his most used pitch is a changeup.

Also important: The Yankees will save money if they replace Peralta with Gonzalez. Gonzalez is projected to make around $1 million while Peralta earned just over $3 million in 2023. It is possible that the Yankees still have interest in Peralta, but do they need two ground ball heavy left-handed relievers?

The prospect swap is intriguing.

Sweeney, a shortstop who was chosen in the first round of the 2021 draft out of Eastern Illinois, is coming off a season where he hit .252//367/.411 (118 wRC+) in Double-A Somerset with 13 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Impressively, he compiled a strikeout rate below 20% (19.1) while walking at a 13.8% clip. There have been questions in the past about whether he can stick at shortstop or move to another defensive position. If third base is his ultimate destination, the offensive bar goes up. Just like with the Yankees, it is hard to crack the Dodgers’ 40-man roster. Sweeney is Rule 5 eligible after the 2024 season, so this may not be his final destination over the next several months.

Vivas, a left-handed bat who signed for $300,000 back in 2017, has started 318 games at second base and 112 games at third base in his minor league career. From his Pipeline profile, his MLB position would likely be second base. In 2023, he was solid at Double-A Tulsa (.280/.391/.436 (123 wRC+) in 109 games) before struggling upon his promotion to Triple-A Oklahoma City (.226/.339/.294 (63 wRC+) in 26 games). He will start 2024 in Scranton, with an opportunity to make it to MLB at some point during the season. Can he rise to the point where he can be a replacement for Gleyber Torres in 2025? Maybe. A lot can happen between now and then. As this is his final option year, he will need to prove that he is worthy of a 26-man roster slot in 2025 and beyond before we even dream of him becoming an everyday player.

Bottom Line:

The Yankees had the leverage, as the Dodgers needed space. They used that leverage to extract an intriguing reliever while swapping out a 2024 Rule 5 eligible infielder for a 40-man roster infielder with one option remaining. I must wonder if the Dodgers asked for a pitcher but the Yankees were able to get them off that ask. From that perspective, it is a win for the Yankees. However, the Dodgers accomplished their goal as well.

While it is expected that your first-round picks will eventually gain value, we can still say that this is a win for player development.

The Yankees have been busy this winter. They are improving the team at the margins (Alex Verdugo, Trent Grisham, Gonzalez) while adding the superstar outfielder (Juan Soto). There is still work to be done, especially with the rotation.

If you are a Yankees fan, you have to be excited about the direction they are taking for 2024.

College Basketball Top 25: 12/11/23

Top 25:

1. Arizona (8-0) (1) – It wasn’t a busy week, but it was a productive one as the Wildcats mauled Wisconsin by 25. The crazy end to their non-conference schedule has three more games: Purdue, Alabama, and Florida Atlantic.

2. Purdue (9-1) (2) – Purdue is pouring it on offensively, including a 92-point effort against Alabama. Coming up next is a big game against Arizona – it is one of those games that the committee could look at when determining the #1 overall seed, etc.

3. Kansas (9-1) (3) – Their offensive efficiency is concerning for a top-tier school, but only Marquette has registered a win over the Jayhawks. A tricky road game against Indiana awaits.

4. Houston (10-0) (4) – One of two Division I schools with double-digit wins (Purdue-Fort Wayne is the other), the Cougars’ defense remains elite even if the competition hasn’t been. Texas A&M isn having an up-and-down start, but they should provide some competition for Houston.

5. UConn (9-1) (5) – The Huskies added North Carolina to their list of non-conference conquests (including Texas and Indiana). Every win has been by double-digits – can they keep that up against Gonzaga this week?

6. Marquette (8-2) (6) – The Golden Eagles, who own the 15th-best non-conference schedule in the country, avenged their loss to Wisconsin by destroying Texas. They own wins over Illinois, Kansas, and Texas this season – their final non-conference game will bring down the strength (St. Thomas), but they have earned their stripes.

7. Creighton (8-1) (9) – There is a certain top-heaviness to the Big East, and it should be fun watching them battle for the league title. The Blue Jays haven’t flashed great schedule strength, but they are on the cusp of being a top ten school in both offense (11th) and defense (8th).

8. Baylor (9-0) (11) – The Bears finally enter my Top 10. Will they be 11-0 following their games against Michigan State and Duke?

9. North Carolina (7-2) (7) – Their 7-game gauntlet is going as well as it reasonably can for the Tar Heels, as they are 3-2. The final two games are against Kentucky and unbeaten Oklahoma.

10. Florida Atlantic (7-2) (10) – The Owls only played one game this week, a competitive loss to Illinois. As their non-conference gets closer to conclusion, the Owls’ resume includes a strong win over Texas A&M, a decent win over Virginia Tech, a good loss to Illinois, and a bad loss to Bryant. They have one more big test: Arizona.

11. Tennessee (6-3) (NR) – I am always willing to admit a mistake: Unranking Tennessee last week was stupid. While they did own a three-game losing streak, those losses were to Purdue (4 points), Kansas (9), and North Carolina (8). They made up for that somewhat with a win over Illinois. The rest of their non-conference isn’t nearly as difficult.

12. Gonzaga (7-2) (8) – Life hasn’t been so easy for the Bulldogs, who lost a non-conference game to in-state rival Washington. They have played only one game against a ranked opponent, a loss to Purdue by ten. A huge game looms against UConn.

13. Illinois (7-2) (16) – A mixed-bag week for the Fighting Illini, who took care of Florida Atlantic before losing to Tennessee. The KenPom continues to like them, as they are in the top 25 both offensively (24th) and defensively (14th).

14. BYU (8-1) (14) – Their run to an undefeated non-conference slate came to an abrupt end in a 4-point loss to Utah (road).

15. Clemson (9-0) (24) – A decent non-conference schedule (55th) that features a solid win on Alabama’s home court. In a battle of unbeaten squads this week, they knocked off TCU. The Tigers have a path to enter 2024 undefeated, but a roadblock is coming up next (a true road game against Memphis).

16. Colorado State (9-1) (12) – The Rams take a loss to St. Mary’s, a team that is hoping to right their ship after uneven early-season results. The rest of the month should offer little resistance before a big conference opener against New Mexico (9-1).

17. Kentucky (7-2) (18) – A predictable rebound win over Penn after their loss UNC Wilmington. Now let’s see what happens in their game against North Carolina this week.

18. Virginia (8-1) (20) – Their biggest feather is a win over Texas A&M while they are still licking their wounds after that bad loss to Wisconsin. On 12/19, they travel to Memphis for what promises to be a tricky contest.

19. Texas (7-2) (13) – The Longhorns aren’t instilling a lot of confidence. They were destroyed by Marquette this past week to add to their 10-point loss to UConn earlier this season. Essentially, they are winning the games they should win but have yet to pull off an impressive victory. I don’t think LSU provides that opportunity, but they better avoid a loss.

20. Oklahoma (9-0) (NR) – It is time to rank the Sooners, who own wins over USC and Arkansas. Intrigued to see what they do against North Carolina (12/20).

21. Colorado (7-2) (NR) – The Buffaloes outscored Miami, 53-27, in the second half in one of the most dominating performances you will find this season. Things ease up the rest of the year before they start the new year with a conference game against Arizona.

22. Duke (6-3) (21) – Charlotte provided little resistance. Hofstra may be a tougher contest leading into their game against Baylor. The Blue Devils have their share of critics thus far in 2023 – a win over the Bears (12/20) will shut those concerns down a tad.

23. James Madison (9-0) (23) – They started off conference play with a 15-point win over Old Dominion. If they want at-large consideration in March, the Dukes will need a gaudy record. Using the KenPom, the only other Sun Belt school in the top 100 is Appalachian State (7-2 with a win over Auburn).

24. Wisconsin (7-3) (17) – The Badgers own three impressive double-digit wins (Virginia, Marquette, Michigan State). However, they lost by 25 to Arizona, showing the world they are not in that class. They should win their final two games in 2023.

25. Memphis (7-2) (NR) – The Tigers own wins over Texas A&M and Arkansas, with losses to Villanova (16 points) and Ole Miss (3). Ole Miss is still undefeated (their overall resume just isn’t yet worthy of my Top 25). Tough games with Clemson and Virginia await.

Dropped Out:

Miami (7-2) (15) – The loss to Colorado was alarming, as is their #55 ranking in the KenPom (likely due to a bad defensive ranking).

Texas A&M (7-3) (19) – The Aggies are 2-3 after a 5-0 start. Regardless, they play Houston on Saturday – win that game, and their free-fall in my rankings will turn into a surge upward.

Ohio State (8-2) (22) – The Buckeyes were cruising along until a weird loss to Penn State, though at least it was a road game.

San Diego State (8-2) (25) – I give them credit for playing Grand Canyon on the road, but they did end up losing the game. The Aztecs followed that up with an uninspiring 1-point win over UC Irvine.

Just Missed:

Northwestern (7-1) – That win over Purdue keeps them just on the cusp of entering the Top 25.

Mississippi (9-0) – The win over Memphis is impressive, but they are currently ranked 90th in the KenPom without any metric favoring an argument that they deserve a top 25 spot. Why do I list them at all? Undefeated teams from power conferences should always earn attention for as long as they stay unbeaten.

New Mexico (9-1) – The Mountain West promises to be competitive once again. The head-to-head matchups will weed out the NCAA Tournament contenders from the pretenders. For now, New Mexico should be firmly in the contenders column.

My Take: Yankees Acquire OF Juan Soto

The trade:

The Yankees acquired outfielders Juan Soto and Trent Grisham from the Padres for C Kyle Higashioka and right-handed pitchers Michael King, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, and Drew Thorpe

This is one of those blockbusters that will be talked about for as long as baseball exists. It is the second blockbuster that Soto has been involved in over the last two years. If you asked the Padres last winter if they would be dealing Soto in the winter of 2023, they would have laughed at you. This was not a part of their plan.

From the Yankees’ perspective:

They are acquiring a player who is amongst the best hitters in history through age 25. 25-year-old players aren’t supposed to have a .284/.421/.524 career triple slash through 779 games with a higher walk rate (19%) than strikeout rate (17.1%). Sometimes, the word “unicorn” is thrown out too often when it comes to a professional athlete. In the case of Soto, he is a unicorn – a hitter who can define a generation. That isn’t hyperbole.

The 2023 Yankees were stale and boring. I watch a lot of baseball and can tell you that it was a rare season where the game felt like “background noise” to everything else going on around me. With one trade, the Yankees have livened up the fanbase again.

Are there flaws with Soto? Yes. He isn’t a good defensive player and while he did steal 12 bases in 2023, his BSR was -4.3. Those flaws are probably not as significant as his contract status, as he only has one year of control. During his time in Washington, when he was far away from free agency, he turned down an offer north of $400 million to stay. There is little doubt that he is going to seek $500 million for 2025 and beyond, which would dwarf Aaron Judge‘s $360 million pact. There is no doubt that Soto will beat that, and Judge would have to live with not being the highest-paid player on the squad if Soto is retained. Is that a problem? I doubt it. Judge understands the business – his contract helped set the tone for the classes that follow him.

Soto is not a dead pull hitter who is “made” for the short porch. That doesn’t concern me. He set a new career-best with 35 home runs in 2023 and I would expect the same level of power in 2024. If you are digging around for flaws in his offensive game, you are wasting your time. Those flaws don’t exist.

As for Grisham, he is a left-handed bat known for his solid defensive work and ability to steal some bags. His bat is not his calling card, but his 13.5% BB rate (2023) was well above league average. Additionally, he can provide some pop (13 home runs) and his pull percentage is above MLB average which suggests he might be able to take advantage of the porch. His reverse split makes him an appealing option to play over Alex Verdugo against left-handed pitching. Beyond that, he will be a cheap backup option who can pinch-run and be used as a defensive replacement. He has two more seasons of team control.

In the span of two nights, the Yankees solved one of their most pressing issues: The outfield. They went from Judge and a group of question marks (especially with Jasson Dominguez‘s injury) to a versatile strong group of four who should be well above league average. If they give Oswaldo Cabrera another chance to fill a super-utility role, he will provide additional depth. Everson Pereira didn’t hit much after his promotion and could spend time in Triple-A, ready to come up at a moment’s notice. Brandon Lockridge survived another Rule 5 and has a speed/defense profile – a profile I liken to former Yankee Tim Locastro.

If you are going to acquire a generational type of talent, you should feel some pain regardless of team control. I don’t think the Yankees were posturing with their reluctance to include King, who leaves a gaping hole in the pitching staff for the time being. I do think that the rumors that they wouldn’t include King or Thorpe were posturing as that was never going to fly. In the end, they ended up giving up both pitchers + two swingmen who figured to play roles in swallowing up some innings.

The three MLB pitchers they gave up will need to be replaced, whether that is internally or externally. Internally, expect to see a lot of Will Warren next spring as they ready him for his big league debut. Clayton Beeter was added to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 draft. He has an electric arm that I think is better suited for short relief, but he is stretched out to start. Yoendrys Gomez received a cup of coffee late in 2023. He is a 40-man roster guy with limited mileage, due to injuries. He reminds me of Jonathan Loaisiga as a kid with good stuff with health concerns. A move to the bullpen didn’t help Loaisiga much with the injuries, but perhaps that will help Gomez.

You will hear a lot about Chase Hampton, who can have a role late in the season. Some experts think he has more upside than Thorpe, though he did struggle in his first taste of Double-A (4.37 ERA and a K% that dropped from 40.5% in High-A to 27.4% in Double-A). Brendan Beck missed a lot of time due to injury but is already Rule 5 eligible after the 2024 season. If healthy, he has the polish (he was a polished arm coming out of college) that can get him to the big leagues sometime in the second half of the season. Matt Sauer, lost in the Rule 5 draft to the Royals, is not guaranteed to stick and could be further depth. From the left side, they have Edgar Barclay, who was dominant in Somerset before getting lit up in Scranton, which isn’t too concerning given the offensive environment. It should be noted that all ten of his appearances after his promotion were starts. Expect some minor league signings to add extra depth.

All that is nice, but the main focus will shift to pitchers who can be difference makers immediately, with the big fish being Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a pitcher with so much intrigue that Hal Steinbrenner reportedly is willing to go over $300 million (both in 2024 team salaries and total contract for Yamamoto). If that doesn’t work out, secondary targets would include Jordan Montgomery and Frankie Montas. It is easy to forget just how good Montas can be when healthy, and the Yankees could be interested in him even if they sign Yamamoto. I am not sure if the Yankees would shift to Japanese lefty Shota Imanaga. He doesn’t “fit” as the type of player they typically target internationally (Kei Igawa was a reactionary move).

I want Yamamoto. If you are going all-in with Soto, get the 25-year-old pitcher who will cost you nothing but money. The competition will be fierce for his services.

We take for granted how good the Yankees are at building bullpens because they rarely have a bad one. That is not the norm across baseball, as other organizations have trouble figuring out the right formula. The Yankees have several arms that should be ready sometime in 2024. I do not advise going big on relief pitching. Josh Hader is a waste of their resources, no matter how good he is.

From the Padres’ perspective:

They needed to clear money quickly, and Soto’s $30M+ was a quick and simple solution to that problem. Grisham provides additional relief, but this was all about clearing the salary of a player they had no hope of keeping.

You would think that would lead to desperation and a lesser prospect package. That is not what they received here, as they were able to use the Yankees’ desperation to make a splash to extract as much talent as possible. Given the mass pitching exodus and an elbow injury to Yu Darvish, the Padres needed pitching help. They received that in droves.

The immediate headliner is King, who pitched to a 2.23 ERA in nine starts after the Yankees moved him into the rotation. While his 4-seam fastball velocity was down from his 2022 heights, King didn’t miss a beat beyond a rough June that may have just been a dead arm period for a pitcher coming off of an injury. He is a strikeout machine with impressive command and control of four pitches, all of which he deploys in any count in any situation. There are durability concerns, and 2023 was the first time King cleared 100 innings in the big leagues. He will be 29 in May and comes with two years of control. If the Padres are bad in the first several months of 2024, he may become an attractive flip candidate to help with a rebuild/retool around the stars who remain.

From a prospect perspective, the headliner is Thorpe, who is coming off of a season where he was named the Minor League Pitcher of the Year. While that award doesn’t make him the best pitching prospect in baseball, he is still well-regarded in the industry after a season where he struck out 32.4% of batters at High-A Hudson Valley – only to follow that up with a 40% rate in 30.1 innings for Somerset. While he may dazzle in spring training and force the Padres’ hand, he is likely a second-half-of-the-season rotation candidate. His calling card is a dazzling changeup that continued to be effective against advanced hitters in Double-A. Will it translate as high as MLB? Until proven otherwise, we have to assume it can.

Brito and Vasquez both made their debuts for the 2023 Yankees and figured to have roles on the 2024 squad as depth starter/middle reliever types. Now, they have a clear opportunity to be full-time starters for the Padres. Brito (who will be 26 at the start of next season) pitched to a 4.28 ERA (4.74 FIP) over 90.1 innings with a 19.4% K and 7.5% BB. As he was coming up the Yankees chain, there were concerns about whether he had a true strikeout pitch. While his fading changeup has devastating action that can lead to some swing-and-miss, it is more of a pitch that induces ground balls when he is on his game.

Vasquez (who just turned 25) tossed 37.2 MLB innings in 2023, compiling a 2.87 ERA (4.98 FIP) with a 10.8% BB and 19.9% K. Known for the spin rate on his breaking ball, there is likely more swing-and-miss to come as he gains experience. Injuries are a part of his profile, and the Yankees have treated him very carefully over the years. In 42 minor league starts between 2022 and 2023, Vasquez didn’t average five innings per start. One could look at him as a modern type of pitcher – he won’t be asked to give you a ton of innings, but you hope the innings he does provide are high-quality.

As the last piece of the deal, the Yankees relieved some of their catching logjam by including Kyle Higashioka. Higashioka is quite a story – a player the Yankees could have lost to minor league free agency years ago who instead stuck it out and is now a proud owner of a 314-game MLB career. In that career (where he was mostly the backup catcher), Higashioka has 40 home runs in 923 plate appearances, making it his clear offensive calling card. He is a classic overachiever – a non-descript 7th-round pick out of high school back in 2008 who put in a lot of work, reached his dream, and can now forever brag that he was the only position player the Padres acquired from the Yankees for Juan Soto. He will be an asset for a staff that figures to be in flux in 2024. It would be funny if the Padres brought back Gary Sanchez as their primary catcher. If reports are accurate, Sanchez has been linked to San Diego.

The Bottom Line:

The pressure to win the World Series in 2024 starts now. That’s the nature of the beast in pinstripes, and it shouldn’t be underestimated just how good Soto was during the Nationals’ 2019 championship run. The bright lights didn’t faze him and he played like the superstar that he is.

The Yankees needed offense and acquired one of the best hitters in the game to help fix that. I can’t quibble with what they gave up to acquire such a player. Could they have held firm that they wouldn’t give up both King and Thorpe? Could they have insisted that the Padres take one of Brito/Vasquez but not both? Sure. But who in their right mind would allow that to hold up a trade like this? It wouldn’t make much sense. They have options to sure up the pitching. There weren’t many options to help out the offense. Hence, this deal makes perfect sense for both organizations. One needed young pitching, the other needed a big bat. They came together and magic was made.

My Take: Yankees Acquire OF Alex Verdugo

The trade:

Yankees acquire OF Alex Verdugo from the Boston Red Sox for RHP Greg Weissert, RHP Richard Fitts, RHP Nicholas Judice

It isn’t often that the Yankees and Red Sox make a trade. While we have seen significant swaps in the past that go beyond the purchase of Babe Ruth (Don Baylor for Mike Easler, as one example), most of their deals are minor.

This trade is far from a blockbuster, but is isn’t insignificant. Brian Cashman talked about wanting two left-handed hitting outfielders, and Verdugo fits. His position doesn’t fit quite as easily, however. Defensive metrics like Verdugo as a corner outfielder – as a center fielder, however, he is below average.

The bat is a potential fit as a complementary lineup piece more than a main lineup piece. In 2019-2020, Verdugo hit a rather impressive .300/.351/476 (117 OPS+) in 598 plate appearances with 38 doubles, 18 home runs, and 59 runs batted in. His production has fallen off a bit in his last three seasons, however, as he owns a .278/.334/.417 (103 OPS+) line over 1,850 plate appearances. The Yankees acquired an average-ish MLB corner outfielder, which is better than what they trotted out there in 2023. However, the bar should not be the 2023 Yankees outfield as many players can clear that. The true bar is Verdugo himself when you think about it. Verdugo is pretty good, but teams should strive to acquire players better than him.

Two publicized benchings by Alex Cora during the 2023 season also raises eyebrows. One suspension was due to a lack of hustle, while the other was due to arriving late at the ballpark.

As for what the Yankees gave up, Fitts is the most intriguing of the bunch. In 27 starts for Double-A Somerset, Fitts pitched to a 3.48 ERA (3.92 FIP) over 152.2 IP with a 6.8% BB and 25.9% K. The innings were the third highest in all of minor league baseball. His ceiling is probably in the neighborhood of a modern-day innings eater. His most probable outcome, however, may be as a spot starter/long reliever type. While he has impeccable control, he lacks command which makes him vulnerable to the long ball (22 in 2023). A move to the pen can lead to an uptick in velocity, which makes it easier to get around command issues. Fitts was never linked to the Soto talks as he isn’t at the level of Drew Thorpe/Chase Hampton in prospect circles. However, that doesn’t mean he is without value. He’ll probably make it to MLB in some capacity.

We have seen Weissert in MLB over the last two seasons. Thus far, he hasn’t been able to translate minor league success to MLB success, as he owns a 4.60 ERA (4.29 FIP) over 31.1 innings with a 9.6% BB and 24.4% K. Weissert’s stuff can be mesmerizing, but he has trouble controlling it. So far, despite his funkiness, he hasn’t shown any special ability to get right-handed hitters out. To be exact, right-handed batters hit him better than left-handed ones. The sample size is still on the small size.

Judice has yet to make his professional debut. Drafted in the 8th round in the 2023 draft out of Louisiana-Monroe, it should come as no surprise that he stands at 6’8″. The Yankees love to draft tall pitchers, and Judice is that. Judice will turn 23 in April, so he is on the older side for a player who has yet to make his debut. He is older than a typical “lottery ticket” but that is still the best way to describe him. If he can start pumping out 98 MPH fastballs consistently, he has a chance. That is true of approximately 328,923 pitchers across minor league baseball.

Bottom Line:

If your first thought is that the Yankees gave up little in this trade, I will ask you this: What exactly could Boston ask for in a deal for a mid-level corner outfielder in his last year of arbitration? This move is a salary dump for the Red Sox, which lowers the prospect ask.

Verdugo is a player that Yankees fans love to hate. But we need to look past that and ask ourselves if he is a good baseball player. The answer to that is Yes. Nobody can deny that Verdugo is a capable MLB player who does many things pretty well, even if he doesn’t own a plus-plus offensive tool. However, you can fairly ask how he fits with the 2024 Yankees, especially if Juan Soto is acquired. He isn’t a center fielder (he can fake it out there a few times a week, perhaps) and it is dangerous to rely on Aaron Judge to be the everyday center fielder. An acquisition of Soto gives the Yankees three corner outfielders, no true center fielder, and Giancarlo Stanton in the designated hitter spot. Jasson Dominguez (who probably profiles as a corner outfielder himself down the road) will be back sometime in 2024. However, it is foolish to think we can rely on him to be above average once he returns. It took Bryce Harper, one of the best baseball players in the league, a few months to find his power coming off of a similar injury.

The Yankees entered this offseason with glaring holes. The squad was boring as they plodded their way through an 82-80 season. Verdugo doesn’t make the roster any more exciting, but we have to be fair and admit that he is an upgrade. If they keep him (I think they will), it is only a 1-year commitment at between $9-10M. That doesn’t seem significant enough to keep the Yankees away from Soto and/or Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

In the end, if this is the biggest move we are talking about when camp opens, the Yankees are in trouble. As of now, I am optimistic that won’t be the case.

College Basketball Top 25: 12/4/23

We are down to 12 unbeaten teams (half of them reside in the Big 12). It is hard to project a big conference team as the potential “last team standing” so I will look elsewhere. Here is how I rank those who are unbeaten, based solely on their potential to be the last unbeaten team:

12. Oklahoma – Their schedule to date is light – that changes with Providence, Arkansas, and North Carolina before the calendar changes to 2024.

11. Clemson – Their next two games are against fellow unbeaten squads South Carolina and TCU. Win those, and a date with Memphis awaits.

10. Cincinatti – Not that Xavier has impressed early, but a trip to their gym is never fun for the Bearcats.

9. South Carolina – I could have ranked them 12th (given that the game against Clemson is on the road), but their schedule after that is so light that I give them a shot to reach 2024 without a loss.

8. Baylor – Their next three games are against power conference schools (Seton Hall, Michigan State, Duke). Those three teams are far from perfect, but it is going to be tough to get through it unscathed.

7. TCU – First, they need to get past Clemson. Do that, and they have a chance to enter 2024 unbeaten – once there, however, they begin their conference journey with games at Kansas, vs. Oklahoma, and vs. Houston.

6. Princeton – They beat Rutgers and squeaked past Furman. Their next two games are against Drexel (recently beat Villanova) and Saint Joseph’s (just won the first-ever Big Five Classic championship game). If they can win those games, they could be the #1 team on this list.

5. BYU – They won’t be favored this week at Utah in all likelihood. However, I rank them here because a win there gives them a big chance to enter conference play 13-0.

4. Houston – The early portion of their Big 12 schedule isn’t tough – but they have Texas A&M to get through first.

3. Colorado State – To me, it is all about St. Mary’s. If that squad wakes up, they can beat the Rams. If not, they should get to 2024 unbeaten – where New Mexico would await in their first conference game.

2. Nevada – Nobody is paying attention to the Wolf Pack, which is due to their crazy easy schedule. Can a trip to Hawai’i be their downfall? A game against Temple? Hard to say because it is hard to read this team.

1. James Madison – Old Dominion isn’t off to a good start, but James Madison has to face them on the road. The Sun Belt isn’t an easy conference, and they will run into roadblocks. Based on the current schedule, however, I still give them the best shot to be the last of the unbeaten teams.

Top 25:

1. Arizona (7-0) (2) – The Wildcats took it easy this week, knocking off Colgate by 27 in their only game. Now, life gets tougher: Wisconsin, Purdue, Alabama, and Florida Atlantic between now and December 23rd.

2. Purdue (7-1) (1) – The Maui Tournament win >>>> road loss to Northwestern.

3. Kansas (7-1) (5) – A less-than-inspiring win over Eastern Illinois was erased by a victory over a stubborn UConn squad that had a chance to win it late. The rest of the month features five games, including three in-state contests (Kansas City, Missouri, Wichita State)

4. Houston (8-0) (6) – The KenPom ranks the Cougars as the nation’s best team, despite a schedule that is light on stiff competition. Houston has the nation’s best Adjusted Defense Efficiency and allows only 50.4 points per contest. They will finally get a test on 12/16 against in-state rival Texas A&M.

5. UConn (7-1) (3) – Their streak of double-digit non-conference wins predictably came to an end at Kansas, but they kept it close (had a chance to take the lead with few seconds left in the game). Up next, they get to play in the Jimmy V Classic against North Carolina at Madison Square Garden.

6. Marquette (6-2) (4) – Tough road loss to in-state rival Wisconsin. They can ease the pain with a win over Texas this week.

7. North Carolina (7-1) (12) – In typical North Carolina fashion, they appeared on their way to a clunker against Florida State after knocking off Tennessee. However, they overcame a 14-point deficit to knock off the Seminoles. Their next three games: UConn, Kentucky, Oklahoma.

8. Gonzaga (6-1) (9) – USC isn’t playing well, and the Bulldogs knocked them down even further with a 13-point victory. They have a few tough non-conference games left (UConn, San Diego State) before we see if anyone is up to the challenge in conference play. Given that St. Mary’s is off to a stunning 3-5 start and BYU is no longer around, methinks Gonzaga will be once again in cruise control heading into March Madness.

9. Creighton (7-1) (11) – Forgotten in the Blue Jays’ big run in the NCAA Tournament was their early-season loss to Nebraska. They certainly avenged that on Saturday, destroying the previously unbeaten Cornhuskers by 29.

10. Florida Atlantic (7-1) (14) – The Owls are certainly making up for that loss to Bryant. This week, they knocked off Liberty (unbeaten entering the game) and Charleston (not the same team that went 31-4 last year). The rest of their non-conference features games against Illinois (Tuesday) and Arizona (12/23).

11. Baylor (8-0) (15) – Their non-conference slate includes wins over three power conference squads (Auburn, Oregon State, Florida), but their 252nd-ranked non-conference SOS likely reflects how mediocre those teams are. The Bears still have games with Michigan State and Duke before conference play begins.

12. Colorado State (8-0) (18) – The Rams are piling up wins, adding Colorado and Washington to their list of victims that includes Creighton. Their last major test before conference play begins is against St. Mary’s. Yes, the Gaels are off to a slow start but who knows when something might click?

13. Texas (6-1) (19) – Texas State is hardly a team that scares anyone, but in this crazy season, you take every win you can get. With that game out of the way, they can now concentrate on Marquette in the Big East-Big 12 Battle.

14. BYU (7-0) (20) – Their game this coming Saturday at Utah may be their last roadblock in their quest to enter conference play 13-0. The KenPom loves the Cougars, as they are ranked 8th based on being strong both offensively (14th in Adjusted offense efficiency) and defensively (13th).

15. Miami (6-1) (8) – Kentucky proved to be quite the test for the Hurricanes as the Wildcats didn’t hold back in a 95-73 drubbing. Miami did bounce back to beat Notre Dame in their ACC opener.

16. Illinois (6-1) (25) – The Fighting Illini suffocated Rutgers in a 76-58 trouncing in their Big Ten opener. Their only loss remains a respectable 7-point game against Marquette. How much higher can they go? We’ll find out this week, as they play Florida Atlantic (Jimmy V Classic) and Tennessee (road).

17. Wisconsin (6-2) (NR) – Boasting a 43rd-ranked non-conference schedule, the Badgers can brag about wins over Virginia and Marquette to balance out their losses to Tennessee and Providence. This week, they travel to Michigan State (Big Ten opener) and Arizona (final non-conference test).

18. Kentucky (6-2) (13) – College basketball, defined: Destroying Miami. Losing to UNC Wilmington.

19. Texas A&M (6-2) (16) – The Aggies have scored between 73-79 points five times this season. That is their “happy” zone, as they are 5-0 in those games and 1-2 in their other matchups (including an ugly 59-47 loss to Virginia last time out)

20. Virginia (7-1) (NR) – Their ugly 65-41 loss to Wisconsin was evened out by their 59-47 win over Texas A&M. This is your prototypical Virginia squad – win with defense and just enough offense. They have a tricky 12/19 game at Memphis coming up. They shouldn’t lose before then, but how can anyone say that with much confidence?

21. Duke (5-3) (7) – Duke went on the road this week and promptly lost to two unranked teams. The Blue Devils better hope that Michigan State picks things up, or their non-conference slate won’t be filled with many quality wins. They can rectify that with a win over Baylor on 12/20 in Madison Square Garden.

22. Ohio State (7-1) (NR) – Last week’s AP poll included only Purdue and Illinois from the Big Ten. That should change this week, courtesy of Wisconsin and maybe Ohio State. The Buckeyes have a quality win over Alabama and a 7-point loss to Texas A&M.

23. James Madison (8-0) (21) – Nobody is going to earn points by beating Keystone, but the Dukes continue to pile up wins after their Michigan State triumph to start the year. Their margin for error is not high and they can probably only lose 1-2 conference games if they want at-large consideration (if they don’t win their conference tournament).

24. Clemson (7-0) (NR) – It is tough to get a read on the Tigers. They are unbeaten (good) but some of their wins leave something to be desired (77-76 over UAB, 68-65 over Davidson). That said, they have a win over Alabama and will try to add to their non-conference resume with games against South Carolina, TCU, and Memphis coming up.

25. San Diego State (7-1) (NR) – With their loss to BYU looking “better” by the day, it is time to rank the Aztecs. However, it isn’t lost on me that they needed a buzzer-beater to defeat UC-San Diego this week.

Dropped Out:

Villanova (6-3) (10) – I ranked Villanova high in my first Top 25, dropped them out after their loss to Penn, jumped them considerably after they won the Battle 4 Atlantis, and will now take them out again after their losses to Saint Joseph’s and Drexel. In the first year of the “Big 5” competition in its new format, the Wildcats went 0-3.

Tennessee (4-3) (17) – The Volunteers receive a lot of bonus points for their tough schedule. They have lost three in a row – the opponents were Purdue, Kansas, and North Carolina. The win over Wisconsin is looking better, at least and will get another shot at a quality win against Illinois this week.

Mississippi State (6-2) (22) – Losing at Georgia Tech may not be so bad (Duke did the same, after all). However, losing to Southern is more than enough to get you bounced from the rankings.

Alabama (5-2) (23) – The Crimson Tide don’t own any bad losses (Ohio State, Clemson) but they also do not own any quality wins.

Memphis (5-2) (24) – The Tigers have lost two in a row after a 5-game winning streak (Villanova, at Ole Miss).

Just Missed:

Oklahoma (7-0) – They remain on my radar but their 353rd-ranked non-conference schedule is just a tad off-putting.

Arkansas (5-3) – The Duke win is their early-season resume maker. Their upcoming game with Oklahoma is a nice test for both teams.

Northwestern (6-1) – A nice mid-tier win (Dayton) and a top-tier win (Purdue) place the Wildcats in Top 25 contention.