The 2022-2023 college basketball season ended with one of the craziest tournaments in history. For the first time ever, a 15-seed and a 16-seed both won in the first round (15th-seeded Princeton won a second-round game as well) while a #9 seed (Florida Atlantic) made a run to the Final Four, where they were eliminated on a buzzer-beater by San Diego State.
Before we get to see how the 2024 tournament will unfold, we first have to get through what promises to be a fun regular season. James Madison owns the biggest early upset with their win over Michigan State (that isn’t the only mid-major win over a power conference school) while Arizona-Duke was a high-profile matchup that met expectations.
Speaking of high-profile matchups, if you are a true college basketball fan, you can’t possibly miss the upcoming Maui Invitational, which starts next Monday. Some of the top teams in the country (Kansas, Purdue, Tennessee, Marquette, Gonzaga) are competing in the 8-team tournament. And one should never discount Syracuse or UCLA, though both will be underdogs in this loaded field. Given the madness of March, we are often “robbed” of some intriguing matchups due to major upsets. In this tournament, you will need to survive a gauntlet to take home the trophy. I will pick my winner in next week’s entry.
My first Top 25:
1. Purdue (2-0) – The Boilermakers will try to repeat the feat of the 2019 Virginia Cavaliers, a school that lost in the 2018 tournament to #16 UMBC before bouncing back to win the title in 2019. Purdue will need to break a long streak to make it happen: The Big Ten hasn’t won a title since Michigan State in 2000.
2. Kansas (2-0) – The Jayhawks “acquired” one of the nation’s biggest transfers this year when they pried Hunter Dickinson away from Michigan. With all the chaos in last year’s tournament, it is easy to forget that Kansas was a #1 seed that lost in the second round (Arkansas). Many top schools are trying to avenge poor showings.
3. UConn (2-0) – The defending champions lost a few important pieces in their quest to become the first team to win back-to-back titles since Florida. The Huskies will get their first test this coming Sunday when they take on Indiana in the first round of the Empire Classic. A win there likely means a date with Texas in the championship.
4. Arizona (2-0) – The final year of the current Pac-12 doesn’t appear to be strong on paper. The Wildcats’ big win over Duke can be the appetizer to a big season, though they have a tough non-conference schedule to get through (Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Alabama, Florida Atlantic)
5. Marquette (2-0) – The Big East is loaded at the top, and the Golden Eagles are another team trying to bounce back from an early NCAA Tournament exit. After a tough time down in Texas, Shaka Smart seems to have found his footing in Marquette, a team that is heavy on experience coming off of their Big East title.
6. Creighton (2-0) – I told you that the Big East is top-heavy. While UConn was destroying the competition in the NCAA Tournament, the Blue Jays made an impressive run of their own. They could have easily been UConn’s opponent in the title game. Creighton will be the heavy favorite to win the upcoming Hall of Fame Classic.
7. Houston (2-0) – This week’s Charleston Classic will provide a test for the Cougars. They will be the highest-ranked team in the field (and may be the only ranked team, depending on how one feels about St. John’s). We’ll see how they get through the Big 12 grind in their first year since moving on from the AAC.
8. Duke (1-1) – The Blue Devils lost a home game to Arizona, and that knocked them down a few pegs in the early going. They are uncharacteristically not playing in one of the big early-season tournaments (they host smaller schools in the Blue Devil Challenge), but their non-conference slate includes matchups against Michigan State, Arkansas, and Baylor.
9. Tennessee (2-0) – A victim of the Florida Atlantic Express in the Sweet 16, Tennessee will once again try to ride a strong defense to a deep NCAA Tournament run. Rick Barnes’ history isn’t a great one in the NCAA Tournament, but the Volunteers have a Final Four-capable roster.
10. Texas A&M (2-0) – The Aggies challenged themselves with a road game against Ohio State last week. They left with an impressive 73-66 victory that sets themselves up for the rest of the non-conference slate. That slate includes the ESPN Events Invitational, where they take on Penn State in the opening round (11/23). The Nittany Lions knocked off this squad in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
11. Florida Atlantic (1-0) – The Owls entered the 2023 Tournament with a gaudy 31-3 record. It was reasonable to wonder just how good they were, however. They lost a non-conference game to an Ole Miss squad that would go on to finish 12-21. Their win over Florida was great for in-state bragging rights, though the Gators would go on to finish under .500. They proved their mettle on the court, however, as their high-wire act took them to the Final Four, where they lost to San Diego State on a buzzer-beater. A shift from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference should be a step up in competition, even with former top-dog Houston now in the Big 12. Another step up is their involvement in the ESPN Invitational, where they take on Butler in the opening round.
12. Michigan State (1-1) – The Spartans have the look and feel of a top-five squad, but one can’t just ignore a loss to James Madison. They have plenty of time to make up for that, however, including their big game with Duke on Tuesday.
13. Miami (2-0) – Most “big” schools aren’t feel-good stories in the NCAA Tournament. The Hurricanes, however, certainly fit the bill in 2023 as their fun style of play made a run to the Final Four for likable coach Jim Larranaga. This year’s squad has a different look, as top guards Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller are now in the NBA while four other players transferred to other schools. Incoming transfer Matthew Cleveland (Florida State) should ease some of the pain,
14. Villanova (2-0) – The sudden departure of Jay Wright left a void for the Wildcats, who had to fight just to finish the season 17-16 (before losing in the first-round in the NIT). Second-year coach Kyle Neptune hopes for a less chaotic 2023-2024 season, and we will find out soon enough just how good they may be as they are a part of the Battle 4 Atlantis field that promises to be highly competitive (North Carolina and Arkansas are in the field, along with Michigan, Texas Tech, and Memphis)
15. North Carolina (2-0) – While some teams rose from the ashes last season, the Tar Heels crashed and burned. Coming off their miracle run to the championship game in 2022, they were considered a top-five team heading into 2023. They have a lot to prove this year, and an experienced squad to do it with.
16. Arkansas (2-0) – The SEC promises to be a tough conference top-to-near-bottom and Arkansas should be right in the mix. The Razorbacks have two Elite Eight appearances and one Sweet 16 appearance in their last three seasons, and their hodgepodge roster this season is capable of another run. Four players from last year’s team declared for the NBA draft, replaced mostly with a wide variety of transfers. It’s certainly become a popular way to rebuild a roster.
17. Kentucky (2-0) – While we think of the Wildcats as a prime example of NCAA Tournament success, they haven’t reached the Sweet 16 since 2019 and the Final Four since 2015. Many schools would see that as a success, but that is not the case for Kentucky. While there is experience on this team if you look deep enough (ie, transfer Tre Mitchell), the reality is that they will rely a lot on freshmen in an effort to reverse their fortunes. How good are they? Let’s see how they do against Kansas on Tuesday.
18. USC (2-0) – Arizona is the overwhelming favorite to win the Pac-12, but USC may have something to say about that. The Trojans have superstar recruit Isaiah Collier leading the charge, joined by positional top-ten recruits at center (Arrinten Page) and shooting guard (Bronny James). They participate in the four-team Rady Children’s Invitational over the Thanksgiving holiday – the tournament includes Seton Hall, Iowa, and Oklahoma.
19. Gonzaga (1-0) – The engine for this squad (Drew Timme) is gone, as are nine other players from the 2023 tournament squad. They are trying to make up for that by bringing in three transfers who have double-digit scoring pedigrees. As usual, the Bulldogs have several strong games on their non-conference schedule, including their inclusion in the ultra-tough Maui. It is there where they can show us if talk of their dominance fading is overstated.
20. St. John’s (1-0) – The arrival of Rick Pitino has created a buzz around the program that hasn’t been seen in several years. Now it is time for them to prove they belong amongst the nation’s elite in his first season. You may think the expectations are unfair, but I am of the mind that Pitino craves the expectations and we should hold him to the standard he wants. Their Monday game against a down Michigan program should still present a challenge, as should their participation in the Charleston Classic.
21. Illinois (2-0) – With Purdue and Michigan State at the top of the conference, the question is: Who is willing to step up underneath them? Maryland is a wise-guy choice, but they crashed and burned in the Asheville Championship, where they lost two games. Can Illinois be that team? The Fighting Illini haven’t made a significant NCAA Tournament run since 2005, and they are going to try to break that spell with an experienced, transfer-laden squad.
22. Memphis (2-0) – While Florida Atlantic will take on the role as the preseason AAC favorites, Memphis should be right in the mix. An astonishing 14 players from last year are no longer with the team this year. However, they once again have a strong recruiting class to mix in with a group of transfers. The Tigers defeated Missouri this past week and are a part of the Battle 4 Atlantis, where they will take on Michigan in the opening round.
23. James Madison (3-0) – Do I expect James Madison to be in the Top 25 all year? No. Do I think a road win over Michigan State warrants them a shoutout in November? Yes. After all, they followed up that win by putting up 113 points against Kent State, a perennially good team out of the MAC (they are the defending champions). The Dukes are a part of the mid-major-laden Cancun Challenge.
24. Texas (2-0) – Texas is the likely championship opponent for UConn in the Empire Classic. Rodney Terry took over for Chris Beard after the latter was fired early last season, and promptly took his team to the Elite Eight. It was their first appearance since 2008. The Longhorns lost several players from last year’s team to graduation but scored big with transfer Max Abmas, the hyper-scoring guard from Oral Roberts (20.8 points per game in his career).
25. Baylor (3-0) – The Bears haven’t been able to repeat their 2021 NCAA Tournament success, but they continue to string together solid seasons under coach Scott Drew (399-222 since being hired). They are the favorites to take down the NIT Preseason Tip-Off and feature a solid recruiting class.