A look at the Yankees’ pitching prospects in 2023, starting with the All-Star team.
The starters:
RHP Drew Thorpe, Hudson Valley/Somerset (14-2, 2.52 ERA (3.05 FIP); 139.1 IP, 34% K, 7.1% BB, 49.2% GB; Age: 23; Rule 5 Eligible: 2025)
In a surprising twist, Thorpe makes my list of top five pitchers in the organization. The second-round pick in 2022 dominated in his first professional season, though it didn’t start that way (in his first three starts, Thorpe allowed ten runs in 15.1 IP). His changeup passed a big test when he compiled a 1.48 ERA (2.15 FIP) over 30.1 innings for Somerset. For the most part, advanced hitters will eat mediocre changeups. That didn’t happen with Thorpe, who can be an MLB option as soon as 2024.
RHP Will Warren, Somerset/Scranton (10-4, 3.35 ERA (4.19 FIP); 129 IP, 27% K, 10.7% BB, 51.7% GB; Age: 24; Rule 5 Eligible: 2024)
The numbers may not jump at you, but Triple-A is a haven for offense. In his first 13 Triple-A starts, Warren posted a 5.24 ERA in 55 innings, allowing 11 homers while compiling a 22.6% K and 11.5% BB. In his final six starts, he posted a 1.61 ERA over 44.2 innings, allowing four homers while compiling a 29.8% K and 10.1% BB. When Warren has his command, expect a lot of ground balls mixed with enough strikeouts to make him enticing. If the final six starts are an indicator that something has clicked, he can be a mid-rotation level starter. If not, a swingman role could be his future – much like former Yankee Adam Warren.
RHP Richard Fitts, Somerset (11-5, 3.48 ERA (3.92 FIP); 152.2 IP, 25.9% K, 6.8% BB, 39.5% GB; Age: 23; Rule 5 Eligible: 2024)
Amongst all minor league pitchers, Fitts ranked third in innings (organization-mate Mitch Spence was the leader!). I look at Fitts as a modern-day bulldog type – a kid who isn’t afraid to pound the zone with his fastball/slider combination. This feature can, at times, turn into a bug as he is prone to long balls when he doesn’t locate his pitches well. Personally, I love pitchers who pound the zone, which elevates Fitts in my eyes. I say this while realizing that his GB% may not be ideal for a right-handed starter in Yankee Stadium.
RHP Chase Hampton, Hudson Valley/Somerset (4-3, 3.63 ERA (3.38 FIP); 106.2 IP, 33.1% K, 8.4% BB, 32.5% GB; Age: 22; Rule 5 Eligible: 2026)
When you combine age, level, and stuff, Hampton is the most tantalizing pitching prospect in the organization. He throws four pitches (fastball, slider, curve, change) and shows swing-and-miss with both the curve and slider. He wasn’t quite as dominant in Somerset as he was in Hudson Valley (not surprising for a 21-year-old in his debut season), as his K% dipped from 40.5% to 27.4%. Like with Fitts, one could be concerned by the ground ball rate, but if a pitcher keeps the K% elevated, that can offset that. Plus, a pitcher can “learn” to keep balls away from the porch.
LHP Brock Selvidge, Tampa/Hudson Valley (8-5, 3.45 ERA (2.98 FIP); 127.2 IP, 25.5% K, 6.5% BB, 50.1% GB; Age: 21; Rule 5 Eligible: 2026)
If it is a left-handed prospect you wish to drool over, Selvidge should be on your list. Amongst the Yankees’ prospects with 70+ innings, Selvidge had the lowest FIP (2.98), HR/9 (0.35), and BB% (6.5%). He dropped his walk rate from the 9.4% he compiled in the Complex League in 2022. What makes Selvidge fun is that he is not fully baked – his stuff is good as is, but it can get even better as he continues to gain experience and strength. He isn’t Rule 5 eligible for a long time and we should see him in Somerset sometime in 2024 (he tossed 50.1 innings in Hudson Valley, so I suspect he will start the season there before a relatively early promotion)
The relievers:
RHP Danny Watson, Hudson Valley/Somerset (1.58 ERA (3.66 FIP); 62.2 IP, 32.7% K, 10% BB, 37.6% GB; Age: 23; Rule 5 Eligible: 2024)
The Yankees have a wide selection of tall relief prospects, and Watson (6’7″) is no exception. His 1.58 ERA was the best amongst Yankees’ prospects with 50+ innings. After making High-A hitters look silly (39% K), Watson found Double-A to be a little more challenging in the strikeout/home run department. The thing with prospects is that it sometimes is better for them to struggle a bit at an advanced level rather than continue to dissect hitters in the lower levels. The Yankees’ bullpen is often strong, and it could feel daunting for a prospect to break through. He should be in the mix for MLB innings sometime in 2024.
RHP Jack Neely, Hudson Valley/Somerset (2.17 ERA (2.90 FIP); 66.1 IP, 38.6% K, 7.7% BB, 35.1% GB; Age: 23; Rule 5 Eligible: 2024)
Neely (6’8″) did a nice job maintaining his K% between Hudson Valley and Somerset while cutting his BB% by more than half (full disclosure: He only tossed 17.2 innings in Somerset). He reached 100 strikeouts out of the bullpen, which is always a fun number to report. Neely’s ascension pretty much matches Watson’s, and he should also be in the bullpen mix sometime in 2024. Healthy competition is good competition.
RHP Bailey Dees, Hudson Valley/Somerset (2.60 ERA (3.37 FIP); 62.1 IP, 30.3% K, 10.6% BB, 36.1% GB; Age: 24; Rule 5 Eligible: 2024)
Dees (6’8″) is in the same boat as Watson and Neely: Big right-handed relief pitchers who you are going to be hearing about in 2024. Any of the three have “Twitter favorite” potential when a big league reliever starts to struggle. Of the three, Dees experienced the biggest dip in strikeout rate between Hudson Valley and Somerset, while his BB% spiked. I don’t concern myself too much with small sample size noise, but it is something to monitor. Hopefully, all three of these kids are invited to spring training because it would be quite a sight to see three power forwards eating some early spring innings.
RHP Luis Velasquez, Tampa/Hudson Valley (1.74 ERA (3.44 FIP); 62 IP, 30.8% K, 13.2% BB, 63.6% GB; Age: 22; Rule 5 Eligible: Eligible)
“Are all the Yankees relief prospects Paul Bunyan types?” The answer is no, as Velasquez packs a smaller size (5’10”) and a better ground ball profile (his 63.6% rate was 4th best in all the minors amongst pitchers with 60+ innings). Velasquez was crazy good down the stretch, posting a 0.89 ERA over his final 30.1 innings While his K rate remained steady during this stretch, he was able to reduce his walk rate (10.9%). Velasquez is Rule 5 eligible and you never know if a small market team would be willing to “bury” someone of his type at the end of their bullpen. I wouldn’t be scared off by that, however – he should be left unprotected and he should pitch for Somerset in 2024.
Honorable Mention:
Starters:
RHP Clayton Beeter (Rule 5 Eligible) – Beeter is essentially the 6th starter on my list above. I remain intrigued to see what he can do if the Yankees tell him to air it out for an inning or two, but there is zero harm in keeping him in the rotation for now. He will need to be protected, as there is zero doubt that a team will grab him and (at the very least) throw him into a relief role.
RHP Justin Lange (Rule 5 Eligible: 2024) – Lange’s potential remains huge, but he still has a lot to work on. His 33.2% strikeout rate jumps out at you, as he struck out exactly ten batters three times this season. Lange was dominant in his first High-A start (5.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K) but struggled in his final two. The potential outcomes are wide-ranging, as he remains a lottery ticket.
RHP Matt Sauer (Rule 5 Eligible) – Sauer had a late start to his 2023 season but was able to squeeze in 74 innings of 3.41 ERA ball. He struck out 30.3% of the hitters he faced. Sauer has an intriguing profile and is a former second-round pick, but how much room do the Yankees have to protect him? He can be prime trade bait before the Rule 5 protection list deadline.
RHP Yoendrys Gomez (On 40-man) – Gomez pitched well for Somerset in 19 starts (3.58 ERA in only 65.1 innings), before being called up to the big leagues to get his feet wet. Gomez has always intrigued, but injuries have held him back. The 67.1 innings between Somerset/MLB represents his career best, which shows you just how much time he has missed through the years. If he can stay healthy, the Yankees have an arm with not much mileage on it. His best role may be out of the bullpen.
RHP Brendan Beck (Rule 5 Eligible: 2024) – It is amazing that Beck’s clock is already closing in on zero as we enter 2024, making the season huge for him. Due to injuries, his debut was in 2023, where he pitched only 34 innings over ten starts. The Yankees correctly placed him in High-A (after one start in the FCL) and will probably fast-track him in 2024. Yes, there is a good chance that people on social media will drool over Beck next year.
RHP Zach Messinger (Rule 5 Eligible: 2024) – Messinger is only 2-18 in his professional career, but that is misleading to an extreme. He has seldom been asked to throw more than 4-5 innings, which limits his win potential. Messinger pitched in 21 games (only four starts) for Virginia in 2021, so the Yankees are asking him to stretch back out as a starter in the minors. With that comes a lot of growing pains, and we are seeing that. The reward can be that of a mid-rotation starter, or a multi-inning reliever if they decide to move him back later.
Relievers/Swing guys
LHP Edgar Barclay (Rule 5 Eligible) – Barclay is another victim of Triple-A insanity. He was nearly unhittable in Somerset before getting lit up in Scranton (it should be noted that all 11 of his Somerset appearances were out of the bullpen, while his 10 appearances for Scranton were all starts). Barclay has enough to be a fixture in an MLB bullpen, and I bet he is selected if left unprotected.
RHP Yorlin Calderon (Rule 5 Eligible) – For a while, it looked like Calderon was going to become a permanent bullpen fixture. The Yankees threw a bit of a curveball at us when his final five appearances (three for Tampa, two for Hudson Valley) were all starts. He is unlikely to be chosen in the Rule 5, and it will be interesting to see which role the Yankees throw him in for 2024 and beyond.
LHP Ryan Anderson (Rule 5 Eligible) – Anderson was sneaky good in 2023, compiling a 2.17 ERA (2.90 FIP) over 58 innings with a 27.9% K. His calling card is his ability to keep the ball on the ground (57.1%) and if he can keep that up, there should be a job for him in the big leagues somewhere at some point. Interestingly, his most dominant stretch was at an advanced level (1.01 ERA in 26.2 Double-A innings)
RHP Harrison Cohen (Rule 5 Eligible: 2025) – The Yankees moved Cohen through three levels in 2023, as they gave him 3.1 Double-A innings down the stretch. Cohen pitched to a 3.86 ERA during his time in Hudson Valley, striking out 29.1% of the hitters he faced. Cohen will be 25 in May, and the Yankees will likely continue to push him.
The Future:
RHP Luis Serna – Now 19, it is time for Serna to make his way to a full-season league. It is possible he would have done that in 2023, if not for an injury that limited him to eight starts (19.1 IP). Serna was 23rd on the Fangraphs’ preseason list, praised for his advanced feel for pitching for a teenager.
RHP Carlos Lagrange – Lagrange was able to toss 41.2 FCL innings in 2023, putting up impressive 32.5% K and 51.2% ground ball rates. Lagrange is an imposing 6’7″, and he has to work on his control (not uncommon for a young kid of his size. Heck, older kids of his size have issues with control)
LHP Henry Lalane – Lalane is a 6’7″ 19-year-old who showed good control in 2023, walking only four batters in 21.2 innings (34 strikeouts). If he can keep that up, there may not be a sky-high enough for him to reach. However, we shall not get carried away before any kid (especially pitchers) gets out of the Complex League.
RHP Jackson Fristoe – Fristoe throws hard, but doesn’t always know where it is going. I wasn’t sure where to put him on this list as he actually made a playoff start as high as Hudson Valley this year. He feels like a project – but one who has made it to the point of being a step away from the critical Double-A level.
RHP Sebastian Keane – The 2022 draftee was impressive in 18 FCL games (1.71 ERA with a 35/16 K/BB over 26.1 innings). A starter in college, he pitched exclusively out of the pen in the FCL. That said, his final two appearances (covering only 5.1 innings) were starts for Tampa.
RHP Eric Reyzelman – The hard-throwing 2022 draftee was only able to get into five games down in the Complex League this season. He is a fastball-heavy reliever, and the Yankees are likely working on developing a solid secondary pitch. He is 100% a relief pitcher.
The 2023 draft:
LHP Kyle Carr may be our next Brock Selvidge. Carr is likely at a more advanced spot right now than Selvidge was when he was drafted (makes sense), but Yankees fans seem to like their left-handed pitching prospects. Put Carr on your list.
RHP Nicholas Judice is, you guessed it, a huge kid (6’8″) with fast-track relief potential. The Yankees simply love these kids – they likely feel as if their size makes them undervalued to teams who may not think their control will translate to professional ball. The big kid fascination also shows up in 20th-round pick Bryce Warrecker (6’8″).
The Yankees have a track record with their mid-round pitching prospects. Any one of them (including several I have not listed) can show up next year with a 95 MPH fastball.
The bottom line:
The pitching pipeline continues to be loaded with talent. There are arms I didn’t include above that probably deserve to be included (sorry, Sean Hermann, Matt Keating, Cam Schlittler, Osiel Rodriguez, Mason Vinyard, etc.). However, I didn’t plan on writing a 5,000-word essay.
When the Yankees make trades, it should surprise nobody that pitchers are often involved. Other franchises covet their arms. It proves itself over and over, even if not many of them have bitten the Yankees to date (pitching prospects are so hard to project that many people will tell you that they don’t even exist).
More good news? When you look at the list above, there is a lack of Rule 5 eligible kids. None of the starters or relievers on my “first team” are Rule 5 eligible. Other than Beeter, there is no guarantee that anyone else will be protected. They will give consideration to Sauer and Barclay.
While we wait to see if the position player pipeline can sustain itself, there is zero doubt that the pitching pipeline has. The arms just keep on coming.